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Monday Mailbag – Playoffs?

By baggedmilk
Aug 15, 2016, 15:00 EDTUpdated: Oct 12, 2017, 19:57 EDT


As per Nation tradition it is mailbag time once again! As always, I’ve taken your questions and sent them out to our writers to get the answers that you’ve always been craving. I’ve said it many times before, but this segment is entirely dependent on you guys and I need questions for next week. If you have something you’d like to ask you can email me at baggedmilk@oilersnation.com or hit me up on Twitter at @jsbmbaggedmilk.com.
1) Alan D. asks – Is it conceivable that the Oilers can make the playoffs this year with their current roster?
Lowetide:
Connor McDavid changes everything. That said, the Oilers have enough roster issues for me to bet on them finishing outside the postseason. They could do it, but would need great health, fabulous luck and at least three players (backup goalie, RHD and third line Pisani) to emerge from the ether.
Jeanshorts:
It’s conceivable, sure, but I don’t think it will happen. I’m not super bullish on the defence as it stands right now, but I think what’s going to make it the most difficult is having to leapfrog all those other teams in the west. Calgary has a good shot at being much better this year with actual NHL goaltending, Colorado just fired their anchor of a coach so there’s a really high chance they could make a big jump this year. Dallas, Chicago, St. Louis, San Jose and Nashville are pretty much playoff locks, and I don’t think it would be out of line to pencil in both Anaheim and LA too. Which leaves one spot for Minnesota, Colorado, Arizona, Calgary, Edmonton, Winnipeg and Vancouver. It’s going to be tough sledding so I wouldn’t bet the house on seeing Oiler games in May just yet. I think best case scenario they keep themselves in the conversation but fall short. (Also, I guarantee Jonas Gustavsson will be a disappointment, and while he’ll probably only play 20 or so games, it’ll be tough to make the playoffs if the Oilers lose half of those).
Robin Brownlee:
Conceivable? Yes. Likely? No. Even if Peter Chiarelli can land one more experienced D-man — either for depth or as that right-handed power-play specialist — and assuming Connor McDavid stays healthy, I see too much traffic in front of the Oilers for them to make the playoffs. I think they can be an 85-90 point team at the top end (I had them pegged for 82 last season). They have a chance to be in the conversation, but I don’t see it happening next season.
Jason Gregor:
If they stay healthy, sure, they could conceivably be in the playoff mix. If healthy, then they will need to show a consistency in their overall play. A healthy McDavid will be a huge boost, but they will need Klefbom, Davidson healthy as well.
Jonathan Willis:
Yes. I think it’s improbable, but it’s conceivable. For it to happen, a lot of the following things will need to happen:
- The top-six forward group will need to improve to compensate for the loss of Hall. The key figures there, outside of Connor McDavid, are Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Leon Draisaitl, both of whom will need to dismiss doubts about their overall offensive ability at evens.
- The bottom-six will need to be less of a disaster than it was a year ago. The departure of Lauri Korpikoski is a possible step but there are still questions at virtually every position here.
- Adam Larsson and Darnell Nurse will need to take a step forward, and Oscar Klefbom will need to be healthy.
- The goaltending will need to be strong. A lot of that responsibility falls on Talbot, who was up and down in his Oilers debut, but at least one of Jonas Gustavsson/Laurent Brossoit will be a big part of the story too.
I can imagine scenarios in which enough of those things happen for the Oilers to squeak into the postseason.
Matt Henderson:
Yes it’s conceivable but a lot of things have to go well for the Oilers. Need Talbot to be good from October through April, Klefbom to be healthy, Larsson to be better than he’s ever been before, Nurse and Davidson to step up, Nuge and Draisaitl to pick up the slack left by Hall leaving, McDavid will have to score 100+ points and about four or five teams need to fall back. I can conceive of it, not sure I’d bet on it.
Baggedmilk:
Anything is possible! Frankly, the Oilers could have been much closer to the dance last year had the team not all been injured. I don’t think they make it this year, but I’m going to bet they’re close. Cautious optimism is the name of my game!
2) Jason Z. asks – Why do you think the Kyle Okposo deal looked upon by some as a great signing and the Milan Lucic deal gets more criticism? They are the same age and signed to the exact same 7 year deal.
Lowetide:
Probably because Lucic plays such a physical game, and his foot speed is more of an issue. I am not one of those who dissed the signing, by the way. Love Milan Lucic’s game.
Jeanshorts:
Mostly point production. Over the last three seasons Okposo has put up 69, 51 and 64 points, whereas Lucic has seen seasons of 59, 44 and 55. And while Okposo does have a physical edge, he’s not a bull in a China shop out there like Lucic, so people are probably drawing a conclusion that Okposo will likely have a little more career longevity. Okposo also had a great run riding shotgun with Tavares, so it was easy to imagine him picking right up where he left off while flanking someone like McDavid Or Draisaitl. I’m happy the Oilers got Lucic but I was fully in the Okposo camp for most of those same reasons.
Robin Brownlee:
Can’t say because I haven’t spent a lot of time listening or reading people who say what you’re suggesting. I like both players, but I recognize that there is an element of risk that one or both might be in decline by the sixth and seventh years of their deals. Worry about that when the time comes. I like the Lucic signing.
Jason Gregor:
I haven’t seen many say Okposo was great. The differences are the style of play. Okposo is a better skater, so I guess the theory, which is far from a guarantee, is he will have a better chance to live up to his deal. I don’t see Okposo as a great signing. Very few UFA deals end up being great.
Jonathan Willis:
There are two points worth making here.
The first, and most important, is that the deals aren’t identical. I don’t think anybody doubts that Lucic/Okposo will be good value for the first 3-5 years of their respective contracts — the danger comes afterward. In the case of Lucic, the Oilers will pay $9MM in total salary over the last two years, and $5.5MM of that is in the form of signing bonuses (which cannot be bought out). In the case of Okposo, the Sabres will pay $8MM in total salary over the last two years, and just $2MM of that is in the form of signing bonuses. So Buffalo took some common sense butt-covering steps that Edmonton did not, and that makes a big difference on a mega contract.
The second is that Okposo has produced more over the last three seasons. Both Lucic and Okposo have played almost exclusively with really good centres (Tavares and Krejci/Kopitar, respectively) and Lucic has put up 158 points in 242 games (0.65 points/game). Okposo has scored 184 points in just 210 games over the same span (0.88 points/game).
Matt Henderson:
I think I trust Okposo as a scorer more than Lucic. Okpsoso is basically Jordan Eberle East but with a physical component to his game. Milan Lucic’s scoring is top six quality, but I have him pegged on the lower end of his peers in that category. His physicality is just as big of a draw but those players don’t usually survive long careers.
Baggedmilk:
Okposo is a better scorer while Lucic is more durable. Who wins will come down to who can maintain their current levels going into their 30s and it will be interesting to watch going forward. Look on the bright side, we have the next seven years to yell at each other about it.
3) Brett in Millwoods asks – If you were to guess which team do you think would be most nervous about losing a valuable piece in the expansion draft?
Lowetide:
Hmmm. Great question. Probably a team like Anaheim, who have a flourishing system and a large group of players in their prime.
Jeanshorts:
Maybe Anaheim? They’ve got a handful of good, young defensemen, and odds are they’ll probably have to sacrifice one of them.
Robin Brownlee:
Can’t say with any certainty until we’re closer to it and we see what the rosters look like then.
Jason Gregor:
I think teams might be more concerned about losing the potential of a player. I don’t see a team in a postion to have to expose one of their top-end players, unless they want to shed cap space. I think it will be more about losing a young player who has yet to reach his supposed potential.
Jonathan Willis:
That’s a tough question to answer, because to do it correctly requires working out expansion lists for 30 different teams. As a shorthand, I think it’s going to come down to any team with a) two good goaltenders or b) five good defencemen. Off the top of my head, Pittsburgh’s situation is less than ideal, unless they pawn off Marc-Andre Fleury prior to the draft.
Matt Henderson:
All of them? The rules should expose a few pretty good players to the expansion draft. This isn’t going to be Bucky and some garbage. This time around a quality F or D and someone’s great backup is going to get exposed. Not sure which team is set to lose the best player, but every team will hate losing a quality piece for nothing.
Baggedmilk:
Tough question, but I’m going to guess anyway. I think a team like Anaheim or Nashville could see a really good player go. Both teams have some solid defense and they can only protect so many.
4) Alex asks – What did you think about the Oilers’ heritage classic jerseys? For me I was disappointed that they did not come up with anything new.
Lowetide:
I love the current thirds. Would have liked the 1972 WHA Oilers, though.
Jeanshorts:
It was a little disappointing, but not surprising. They unveiled those orange jerseys last season to honour the heritage of Rexall Place/the WHA days, on top of the fact that they’ve been using the classic 80s colour scheme for a few seasons now for their regular home and away uniforms. It’s not like there was really an even OLDER jersey they could have used. I think we should all just be happy we’re not tempted to drop $200 on ANOTHER jersey!
Robin Brownlee:
I like them. New isn’t necessarily better. There are far too many versions of team jerseys — not just the Oilers — now for my liking.
Jason Gregor:
I don’t see need to have a new jersey every year. The Orange is fine, in fact I really like the Orange.
Jonathan Willis:
I think the orange jerseys look great, but I understand the disappointment. I was a little surprised that the Oilers didn’t come up with a new jersey, honestly; these games are virtually a licence to print money with some kind of one-off merchandise for fans.
Matt Henderson:
I don’t need a new jersey so it doesn’t bug me one way or the other. I think it’s odd they wouldn’t cash in though. It’s not like this team to milk its fanbase for as much as humanly possible.
Baggedmilk:
I can’t believe they didn’t come out with a heritage classic jersey. Seems like an easy way to sucker fans out of another $200, no? At least they added the patch. Gotta love the patch. Patch!
5) Teena asks – Are you watching the Olympics? If yes, what is your favourite event to watch and why?
Lowetide:
Yes! Penny Oleksiak has made these Olympics memorable all by her lonesome, so I will pick swimming.
Jeanshorts:
I haven’t watched a single minute, and I get very confused when I go on Twitter at night and see everyone screaming about pennies or whatever. I’m not actively avoiding them, I just have never been drawn to the summer Olympics in the same way I am to the winter version.
Robin Brownlee:
Yes. Enjoy the soccer and rugby 7s. Watched Penny Oleksiak in the pool. What a remarkable young athlete she is.
Jason Gregor:
The athletic achievements are great. I watch as much as I can. Swimming has been great early on. Rugby 7’s, Volleyball are very exciting. Rowing is freaking hard, and I like watching it. Now that track and field has started I’ll be watching all of it. Outside of Dressage, I’ll watch any sport. The gold medal match in table tennis between the two Chinese women was unreal. I loved it.
Jonathan Willis:
Nope. Even back before hockey went from nearly-all-consuming hobby to all-consuming job I didn’t really care about the summer Olympics.
Matt Henderson:
Yes I’m watching the Olympics. I love watching swimming because Friedman is the best. Penny Oleksiak is a phenom. That kid is unreal. Rugby 7’s was really fun to watch. The 100m sprint is always going to draw attention. My wife loves women’s gymnastics so I watched a fair amount of that. Simone Biles is amazing.
Baggedmilk:
You know I’m watching! I like the Olympics because it gives me a chance to judge athletes that are doing sports I only watch every four years. Who doesn’t like that? As for which events I’m watching, I’m pretty much watching whatever is on — I don’t really care that much. I think most sports have interesting sides to them and the Olympics is a good excuse to consume a whole bunch of the,.
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