For the fourth consecutive season, the Edmonton Oilers will face off against the Los Angeles Kings in the opening round of the NHL playoffs.

While it’s Cup or bust for the Oilers, who once again appear to be a legitimate contender, there are many sound arguments that suggest this year’s Kings are better than the ones that have failed to get past the Oilers in each of the last three postseasons.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

While the Oilers were not entirely dominant down the stretch, a fact that garnered plenty of media attention, they were not playing for much and were without numerous key pieces on a nightly basis. Connor McDavid scoffed at the idea that Edmonton was limping into this series, and it seems reasonable to think that the Oilers captain was not simply posturing.

The Oilers will remain without some key pieces in this series, including defensive stalwart Mattias Ekholm, who is expected to miss the entire first round with an undisclosed injury.

Leon Draisaitl and McDavid are both healthy, however, so the Oilers have certainly avoided any kind of disaster in terms of lineup availability. While depth is important come playoff time and is always a trendy narrative, the Oilers have proven that having the best star players in any given series is still more important. Particularly given the minutes, McDavid and Draisaitl have proven able to handle the postseason.

The idea that the Oilers are out of form entering this postseason also seems to be overstated. Perhaps it would have been nice to see slightly sharper play from Stuart Skinner down the stretch, but overall, it seems the flaws from a team offering arguably the two best players in the world are being nitpicked a little too much by mainstream media.

The Oilers went 12-7-1 in their final 20 games and held an expected goal share of 55.12% in those matchups, which was the fourth-best mark in the league. They ranked 27th in shooting percentage during that span but do not profile as a team that will finish chances at a drastically below average rate, specifically when all of their top pieces are in the lineup.

Edmonton failing to secure home ice advantage for this series has been dubbed a huge advantage for the Kings, who held a league-best record of 31-6-4 on home ice this season. Perhaps that narrative holds a little more weight because the Kings, in specific, were so entirely dominant on home ice this season, but in general, the statistics state that home ice advantage is highly overrated in the NHL playoffs.

Over the last two playoffs, road teams are 93-82, and betting on them in each of those games would yield a +11.9% ROI. Those numbers are especially eye-popping when you consider that higher seeds (theoretically, the better team on average) play more home games.

Darnell Nurse – Evan Bouchard
Jake Walman – Ty Emberson
Cam Dineen – Josh Brown

With Ekholm sidelined, the Oilers’ defensive depth is a concern entering this series, but there are plenty of strengths that could help them overcome that flaw. In Evan Bouchard and Jake Walman, they still have one truly dominant defender on each of the top two pairings, though those who overweigh mistakes will argue against the true quality of the two defenders, who both handle the puck a ton and rarely opt to punt pucks to nobody in particular.

If Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can continue offering the improved level of play we saw down the stretch when McDavid and/or Draisaitl were sidelined, the Oilers have a tremendous trio at the critical center ice position.

Chances are this series will be fairly evenly played at even strength, and whether or not the Oilers’ power play unit can outperform the Kings could be the difference once again.

The other key factor that will determine the outcome of this series will be the play of Stuart Skinner in goal and whether or not he is significantly outplayed by Darcy Kuemper. Kuemper was the vastly superior starter in the regular season by any statistic you want to look at, but the Oilers can put faith in the fact that Skinner held a +1.9 GSAx rating in 23 games last postseason, as well as a .901 save percentage.

There are plenty of sound arguments that suggest this Kings team is the best one that the Oilers have faced during their four straight first-round matchups.

As has been the case in each of the last three years, the Kings have been one of the league’s very best defensive teams this season by most metrics. They ranked first in xGA/60 this season, a metric that was highly indicative of playoff success last season, as three of the four conference finalists finished top-six in xGA/60 in the regular season.

Kuemper had, by a wide margin, the best season of any Kings goaltender in recent years, stopping .921% of shots faced and finishing with a +22.5 GSAx rating. While he was not asked to do all that much during the Colorado Avalanche’s Stanley Cup run in 2021-22, he is a Stanley Cup champion, so a lack of playoff experience is not an issue.

Offensively, this does appear to be the best version of the Kings that the Oilers have faced in recent years. They scored 3.04 goals per game this season and looked to be a more well-rounded offensive side in the second half in particular, as Quinton Byfield and Kevin Fiala both trended into dominant form.

The Kings’ power play remained a concern this season, as they finished the year with a 27th-ranked power play success rate. Their power play did improve down the stretch, though, as they succeeded on 23.4% of opportunities in their final 20 games of the season.

The market has steadily moved against the Oilers entering this series, and they are now only the slightest of favourites to win the series in the betting markets. I’m a firm believer that this Kings team is much improved compared to last year, but I also still believe the Oilers are a legitimate Stanley Cup favourite, and will probably end up betting on the winner of this series if they end up as underdogs in a likely Round Two matchup versus the Vegas Golden Knights.

As rest scenarios become far less of a factor during the playoffs, home ice advantage tends to be minimized, a point that has been proven over a large sample of play. Edmonton is an experienced group that has proven its mettle in the postseason, and I’m not concerned with its ability to play in a tough road environment.

With that in mind, there looks to be value backing the Oilers as road underdogs in Game 1 of this series, and I would bet the Oilers down to +100.