The Edmonton Oilers hope playing in front of what will be an electric crowd at Rogers Place can help turn the tide in their series versus the Los Angeles Kings, as they look to avoid falling into a three-game deficit on Friday evening.

The Kings have exposed all of Edmonton’s flaws in the first two games of the series, having scored six goals in both of the first two games, thanks to plenty of missed defensive assignments and poor goaltending from the Oilers. Though the Kings have looked head and shoulders above the Oilers so far in this series, they are heavy underdogs in Friday’s matchup.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

In a Game 2 matchup where it was quite reasonable to think the Oilers would bounce back with a much sharper performance than we saw in the first game of the series, the Kings were the better team in all facets of the game.

Los Angeles did a significantly better job of limiting true Grade-A scoring chances than the Oilers did in Game 2. While Stuart Skinner’s shaky play continues to be the main talking point surrounding this series, Game 2 would have featured the same result if the teams had traded goaltenders, as the nature of each team’s defensive miscues was not comparable.

The Kings’ five-forward power play has scored five times in the series and succeeded on 50% of opportunities. There are several reasons why the power play unit has been so effective, but one thing that has stood out relative to other series right now is how easily they are generating controlled zone entries before getting into a setup that offers many different wrinkles.

Darcy Kuemper has outperformed Skinner, to be sure, but his team has defended significantly better at even strength and done a much sharper job on the penalty kill. The Oilers were never expected to receive better goaltending than the Kings in this series, but the gap in chance quality being so great has really magnified that point.

In the first two games of the series, the Kings hold a 71.12% expected goal share and have generated 4.99 xGF/60. Public expected goal models certainly aren’t the be-all and end-all, but the eye test would certainly agree with the data, which suggests the Oilers have not been unlucky to allow so many goals against.

It’s looking far more apparent that this year’s older, slower version of the Oilers may simply be a far lesser team than the one which was one goal away from winning it all last season, but the group could still benefit from their experience last postseason as they look to win this critical game.

The Oilers authored an incredible comeback in the Stanley Cup Final when they won three straight versus an extremely formidable Florida Panthers side. We know this team has the heart to pull off the comeback, but the difference right now could be that in last year’s series versus the Panthers, the Oilers never truly deserved to be down 3-0.

The data shows that earning a 3-0 lead in any NHL series is extremely difficult. Teams that enter Game 3 down two to nothing in the series are 27-20 since the 2015-16 NHL postseason, and betting on the team down two games in each of those matchups would have yielded a +14.2% ROI.

At the time of writing, it has not yet been confirmed what adjustments head coach Kris Knoblauch will make to the lineup, but it would be logical to expect some changes.

Splitting Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl onto two separate units could be one logical move, as the Kings’ depth has clearly caused problems for the Oilers in this series. Draisaitl has proven that he can carry his own line this season, and putting Draisaitl back with Viktor Arvidsson and Vasily Podkolzin offers a more balanced look.

It’s not easy to sit someone with the experience and character that Adam Henrique has, but his play at the critical center ice position in this series has not been good. It could be an effective strategy to have McDavid, Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins center the top three lines and allot the vast majority of the minutes to those trios.

Mattias Ekholm’s absence from the defence core has proved extremely significant, as he is the team’s most competent shutdown defender. Not having him in the lineup has certainly hurt at even strength, but it’s also been particularly noteworthy watching the team’s penalty kill struggle so mightily.

Evan Bouchard was absolutely fantastic during the Oilers playoff run last season, and even his many naysayers should not be able to dispute that. However he has clearly had an ugly series to this point, and considering the state of the defence core, they need him to figure things out in short order.

One very realistic way for the Oilers to find more success would be to improve their work on the power play, as they have not yet recorded a goal in this series with the man advantage. Regardless of how good of a job a team does on the penalty kill, a crisply run power play should be able to get its chances, and that point is especially true with a unit featuring McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard.

At the time of writing, it’s still unclear whether or not Knoblauch will pivot to Calvin Pickard in goal, but ultimately the decision will not matter if the Oilers do not avoid the kind of complete defensive collapses we have seen in the first two games of the series.

The numbers suggest Pickard is still a downgrade on Skinner, as he holds a -9.1 GSAx and .900 save percentage this season, but it could be logical to shake things up and see what Pickard can offer.

If it came down to simply picking who would win this game, my pick would be that the Oilers find a way to get it done and make this a series. Chances are McDavid and Draisaitl will be at their absolute best in this matchup and will each play huge minutes in all relatively close game scripts.

For all the flaws the Oilers have shown so far, if they can clean things up to some extent, their elite talent should be able to steal one on home ice.

With those things said, the idea that the Oilers ‘can’t lose’ this matchup does seem to be well compensated by the fact that they are pretty heavy favorites for a team that has been outplayed considerably in this series.

This does look to be a good spot to back Draisaitl scoring for a third straight game. As chalky as the bet is, all of the statistics suggest continuing to bet on Draisaitl scoring at better than even money is a good play. He’s tallied at least a single goal in 17 of his last 34 playoff games and scored in 56% of games this regular season.

The Oilers’ power play could be due to break through in this matchup, and Draisaitl should play huge minutes in this do-or-die matchup. At +110 or better, I see value in backing him to score.