Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he breaks down and handicaps Sunday’s tilt between the Ottawa Senators and Edmonton Oilers.
Senators vs. Oilers Odds
- Ottawa Senators Moneyline: +150
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -185
- Puck Line: Senators +1.5 (-160), Oilers -1.5 (+135)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -115, Under -105)
Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Oilers (20-13 SU, 12-21 ATS, 14-18-1 O/U)
The Oilers had another close call on Saturday, as the Oilers once again needed a last-minute goal to earn an overtime win. Unlike Thursday’s game against Boston, though, they took over after a slow start, dominating the Sharks. By the end, Edmonton controlled 70% of the shot attempts and 65% of the expected goals, according to Evolving Hockey. Still, beating a bottom-five team at home shouldn’t have been this much of a grind.
It’s tough to be too critical of a team that’s only lost five of its last 19 games, but from a betting perspective, it pays to be picky. Sportsbooks aren’t cutting any deals on Edmonton, with their -185 moneyline odds feeling a bit steep. Sure, they’re finding ways to win, but this isn’t an ideal situational spot. Stuart Skinner will be rested, but the Oilers are just 6-8 in the second half of back-to-backs since last season.
That said, the Oilers have history on their side. They’ve won four of their last five against the Senators and are 16-7-2 against Ottawa during the Connor McDavid era. The Sens have also struggled at Rogers Place, losing seven of their last eight visits. On top of that, Ottawa has scored four or more goals in just five of its last 24 games, which usually isn’t enough to keep up with the Oilers.
Handicapping the Senators (18-15 SU, 14-19 ATS, 13-16-4 O/U)
Ottawa extended its win streak to six with a 5-4 overtime win in Vancouver on Saturday. Like Edmonton, the Senators started their backup goalie, leaving Linus Ullmark rested for Sunday’s matchup against the Oilers. Ullmark has been in top form, winning seven straight starts and staying unbeaten in regulation over his last nine.
Per Evolving Hockey, only Connor Hellebuyck ranks higher in goals saved above expected over the past month, and no goalie facing at least 200 unblocked shots has a better save percentage. Ullmark is playing as well—if not better—than during his Vezina-winning days in Boston. Over the last month, he’s allowed fewer goals than Stuart Skinner, despite playing two fewer games. Based on his recent form, Ottawa holds the edge in goal for this game.
Both teams have struggled on the penalty kill, but Edmonton seems to have turned a corner, while Ottawa hasn’t. The Senators’ power play is strong, ranking in the top 10 with a 25% success rate, but Edmonton’s has been even better since McDavid returned from his three-game absence. At even strength, both teams rank in the top 10 for shot attempts and expected goals percentage, though Edmonton grades slightly higher across most categories, especially on offense.
So, while Edmonton should come away with two points more often than not, considering the schedule, the goalie matchup, and the odds, there’s not much incentive to back the home team.
Best Bet for Senators vs. Oilers
Both teams to score 3+ goals (+195) at Sports Interaction
Ullmark hasn’t allowed more than two goals in his last seven starts, but Edmonton has only been held to two or fewer goals in three of its last 19 games, so that streak could end on Sunday. Stuart Skinner has also been solid, holding opponents to two or fewer goals in seven of his last 10 games. While the Senators don’t have the highest offensive ceiling, they’ve scored three or more goals in 11 of their last 14 games. I’m not sold on betting over six goals at -115, but getting close to 2/1 odds on both teams scoring three-plus goals feels like a solid play.
Zach Hyman Anytime Goal (+150) at Sports Interaction
Not long ago, betting on Connor McDavid to get over 3.5 shots on goal was almost automatic. McDavid has cooled off, but since Zach Hyman returned from injury, he’s scored nine goals in eight games, and sportsbooks haven’t caught up yet. So, Hyman is now the automatic bet, at least until sportsbooks adjust or he cools off. I’m not as confident in Hyman scoring this time—given Ullmark’s form and the Oilers’ tough schedule spot—but I still think he’s worth a small, half-unit bet at +150. That said, his goal-scoring odds are more favorable elsewhere, so be sure to shop around.
