Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Thursday’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Florida Panthers.
Oilers vs. Panthers Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: +103
- Florida Panthers Moneyline: -114
- Puck Line: Oilers +1.5 (-244), Panthers -1.5 (+210)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -106, Under -106)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Oilers (34-24 SU, 20-38 ATS, 26-31-1 O/U)
Edmonton’s season-worst losing streak hit four games with Tuesday’s defeat to Tampa Bay, and the Oilers will try to avoid a fifth straight loss when they face Florida on Thursday as they continue their rough Eastern Conference road trip.
The Oilers have yet to win on the trip, dropping all three games by three goals or more while being outscored 22-11 during the skid. Unsurprisingly, they’ll enter Thursday’s game as underdogs.
Since their Feb. 5 loss to Colorado, Edmonton has controlled just 40.84 percent of expected goals and 44.65 percent of even-strength shot attempts, per Evolving Hockey. The Oilers have been outshot 133-94 over the last four games, with underlying numbers more fitting of a bottom-five defensive team and bottom-10 offensive team.
Edmonton now owns the NHL’s worst record against the puck line at 20-38 and hasn’t covered in eight straight games. They’ve been effective as road underdogs, though, winning four of five games in that spot this season.
Leon Draisaitl has been one of the league’s most consistent producers, riding a nine-game point streak with goals in six straight contests. The 29-year-old has 12 goals in his last 13 games, but Edmonton will need more from Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman, and the supporting cast to offset its defensive struggles.
Over the last 10 games, the Oilers have allowed 3.68 expected goals against per 60 minutes — the fifth-worst rate in the league — while ranking 30th in goals allowed per 60. Florida doesn’t give up many shots or scoring chances, so Edmonton will need to tighten up defensively to avoid another tough night.
Handicapping the Panthers (35-24 SU, 28-31 ATS, 29-28-2 O/U)
Thursday’s game kicks off a crucial five-game homestand for the Panthers, who sit just one point behind the Toronto Maple Leafs in the battle for the top spot in the Atlantic Division. Florida boasts a solid 17-10-2 record on home ice this season, but they’ll be without their top star for a third straight game as forward Matthew Tkachuk remains sidelined with a groin injury suffered during the 4 Nations Face-Off. Tkachuk isn’t expected back until mid-March.
According to Evolving Hockey, the Panthers rank third in expected goals percentage and second in shot attempt percentage at even strength. Florida’s attack ranks sixth in goals per 60 minutes across all situations, and only one team has generated more shot attempts.
Of course, Tkachuk’s absence could hinder their offensive firepower, but their defensive play has been even more impressive — allowing the second-fewest goals per 60 since Jan. 1. Additionally, only one team has done a better job suppressing shot attempts this season, which isn’t a good sign for the Oilers, as they have failed to generate more than 25 shots on goal in a game on this road trip.
The Panthers are 7-3 straight up in their last 10 games and have won three straight regular season meetings against Edmonton, including both home matchups. Despite their strong form, Florida has gone just 16-11 as home favorites this season, resulting in a loss of 2.46 betting units.
Best Bet for Oilers vs. Panthers
Sam Bennett Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-125) at Pinnacle
Sam Bennett leads Florida in shots on goal this season with 183, and not only has Bennett managed to register three shots or more in 65 percent of his games this season, he’s gone over 2.5 shots on goal in 14 of his last 15 outings. With Tkachuk out of the lineup, expect Bennett to step up again on Thursday, and bet on him to go over 2.5 shots at Pinnacle, as they are offering the best odds (-125) on this prop.
