Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Tuesday’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and St. Louis Blues.
Oilers vs. Blues Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -175
- St. Louis Blues Moneyline: +157
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+140), Blues -1.5 (-159)
- Game Total: 6 (Over -106, Under -106)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Oilers (32-20 SU, 20-32 ATS, 22-29-1 O/U)
Edmonton ended its six-game homestand with back-to-back losses. First, they dropped a 3-2 shootout decision to the Detroit Red Wings. Then, suffered a disappointing defeat against the Toronto Maple Leafs. Now, the Oilers will hit the road for a pair of back-to-back games against the Central Division. Edmonton will meet the last-place Chicago Blackhawks on Wednesday, but before that, they’ll face a much tougher opponent in the St. Louis Blues.
The Oilers have not lost three games in a row since they opened the season with three straight losses, but while Edmonton defeated St. Louis in 4-2 in Edmonton on Dec. 7, the Blues have won the last two times they’ve hosted the Oilers. In fact, Edmonton has lost three of its last four trips to St. Louis dating back to Dec. 29, 2021. The two teams have split their last 10 meetings.
The Oilers will keep the same top-six, with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Corey Perry making up the team’s top line, and Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Viktor Arvidsson playing second line duties. However, the bottom-six was shuffled at practice on Monday, as head coach Kris Knoblauch looks to spark some of his depth scorers.
Stuart Skinner could also use a spark, as the Oilers’ goaltender has dropped four of his last five games. According to Evolving Hockey, Skinner allowed three goals on 1.34 expected goals in the first period against Toronto, which put his team in a big hole, so Knoblauch might consider giving him a break and starting backup Calvin Pickard in the first half of the back-to-back. Pickard will start one of these next two games, and he has won his last five starts, it’s just a matter of which game.
Handicapping the Blues (24-29 SU, 28-25 ATS, 20-28-5 O/U)
St. Louis snapped a four-game losing streak with its win over the Utah Hockey Club on Sunday. The Blues now begin a six-game homestand that extends beyond the 4 Nations Face-Off. However, home-ice advantage has not been a strength for St. Louis this season.
The Blues have posted their worst home win percentage (.440) since the 2020-21 season after winning 56.1 percent of their home games over the last three seasons. They’ll look to avoid their fourth consecutive home loss when they host Edmonton on Tuesday.
St. Louis has gone 15-13-3 under head coach Jim Montgomery and has shown notable improvement in its underlying numbers. Under Drew Bannister, the Blues ranked 26th in shot attempts and 28th in expected goals at even strength, but they have improved to 18th and 21st, respectively, under Montgomery.
Offensively, the Blues have gone from a bottom-10 team to performing like a top-10 team. They ranked 25th in goals per 60 minutes under Bannister, but only seven teams have scored more goals per 60 since the coaching change. Additionally, they have significantly improved defensively. St. Louis ranked 25th in goals against per 60 minutes under Bannister but has been the fourth-best team in that category since Montgomery took over.
That said, the Blues peripherals have dipped over the last month, and their power play has been mediocre. Moreover, the team’s penalty kill ranks as the third-worst in the NHL since the coaching change.
Best Bet for Oilers vs. Blues
Leon Draisaitl Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-132) at Pinnacle
Draisaitl has recorded three or more shots on goal in 34 of 52 games this season, including his last four outings. Now that he’s back playing alongside McDavid at five-on-five, there’s an even greater chance he continues that trend on Tuesday. He has registered 16 shots on goal over his last two games, and Pinnacle is offering the best odds by far (-132) on him to record three or more shots.
