Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Friday’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Colorado Avalanche.
Avalanche vs. Oilers Odds
- Colorado Avalanche Moneyline: +168
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -188
- Puck Line: Avalanche +1.5 (-149), Oilers -1.5 (+132)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -106, Under -106)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Avalanche (32-24 SU, 22-34 ATS, 25-27-4 O/U)
Colorado will look to earn another win in Alberta after its 4-2 victory over the Calgary Flames on Thursday. The Avalanche trailed 1-0 after the first period but responded with three unanswered goals in the second before extending their lead to three midway through the third. The Flames answered with a late goal, but it was too little, too late, as the game was already out of reach.
With the win, the Avalanche improved to 4-3 since the blockbuster trade that sent Mikko Rantanen to the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for Martin Necas, Jack Drury, and a couple of draft picks. Necas has fit in well, registering three goals, five assists, and 26 shots on goal in seven games since the trade. On Friday, he recorded his first multi-goal game and third multi-point effort.
It’s a small sample, and their schedule hasn’t been overly challenging, but the Avalanche have played well since the trade. According to Evolving Hockey, Colorado has posted a 55.6 expected goals percentage and a 56.1 shot attempt percentage since Jan. 25, showing improvement. Additionally, the Avalanche have been strong on special teams, ranking fourth on the power play (29.4 percent) and eighth on the penalty kill (87.5 percent).
Nathan MacKinnon reclaimed the league scoring lead with three assists on Friday. The 29-year-old now has 83 points in 56 games, two more than Oilers forward Leon Draisaitl, who has 81 points in 54 games. However, MacKinnon has recorded 14 fewer even-strength points than Draisaitl, and six fewer even-strength points than Connor McDavid.
Cale Makar also became the first defenseman this season to reach 20 goals, accomplishing the feat in his hometown. Makar leads all defensemen with 60 points, just one more than Vancouver Canucks captain Quinn Hughes.
From a betting perspective, the Avalanche have not been a profitable moneyline bet as road underdogs. Colorado is just 3-6 in those games, and a bettor placing a one-unit wager on the Avalanche in each of them would be down nearly two and a half units year-to-date.
Handicapping the Oilers (34-20 SU, 20-34 ATS, 23-30-1 O/U)
Edmonton returns home after back-to-back overtime wins in St. Louis and Chicago, securing sole possession of the top spot in the Pacific Division. Neither game was pretty, but the Oilers found a way to win. Now, they look to sweep the regular-season series with a third consecutive victory over the Avalanche before the NHL pauses for the 4 Nations Face-Off.
The Oilers defeated the Avalanche 4-1 on Nov. 30 and 4-3 on Jan. 16, but this will be the first and only meeting between the two clubs at Rogers Place. Both of Edmonton’s previous wins over Colorado came in the second half of back-to-back games, but the Oilers will be the rested team when they host the Avalanche on Friday.
As expected, the games have been competitive, but the Oilers have controlled the shots and, even more so, the expected goals. Edmonton holds a 121-111 edge in shot attempts against Colorado this season, while expected goals favor the Oilers 8.38-5.15, aligning closely with the actual scoring.
Edmonton has been the league’s best team in even-strength expected goals since Dec. 1 and ranks fourth in shot attempt percentage. Only two teams have posted a better goal share at even strength. Moreover, no team has scored more goals per 60 minutes in all situations since Oct. 25, and only four teams have allowed fewer. Given their current form and rest advantage, the Oilers should control play on Friday.
The Oilers wouldn’t typically have an edge in goal against the Avalanche, but Colorado’s decision to start Mackenzie Blackwood on Thursday in Calgary could level the playing field. Backup Trent Miner might get the nod, but with a long break ahead, the Avalanche could go back to Blackwood, despite him having played the night before. Blackwood has been statistically superior to Stuart Skinner this season in both goals saved above expected and save percentage, but if he starts, he’ll be playing tired.
From a betting perspective, Edmonton hasn’t been a profitable moneyline bet at home overall this season, but that has changed since December. Additionally, the Oilers are 13-4 at home when their moneyline odds are -180 or greater, generating a cumulative profit of roughly one and a half units in those games based on one-unit wagers.
Best Bet for Avalanche vs. Oilers
Total – 1st Period – Over 1.5 (-135)
Both the Oilers and Avalanche rank among the bottom-10 teams in first-period goals against this season, but while Colorado has improved in that regard over the last month and half, the Oilers have not. That said, with Colorado playing tired, and Edmonton having gone over the first period total in nine of its last 11 games, Friday’s matchup stands out as a good spot to bet on these teams to score early and often.
