Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Saturday’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Chicago Blackhawks.
Oilers vs. Blackhawks Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -350
- Chicago Blackhawks Moneyline: +260
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (-155), Blackhawks +1.5 (+130)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -115, Under -105)
Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Oilers (25-16 SU, 16-25 ATS, 17-23-1 O/U)
Edmonton will look to start a new win streak on Saturday in Chicago after Thursday’s 5-3 loss in Pittsburgh. The Oilers stumbled out of the gate, allowing three goals before the 10-minute mark and trailing 4-1 heading into the second period. Pittsburgh extended the lead early in the second with a goal from captain Sidney Crosby. Although the Oilers pushed back, outshooting the Penguins 36-13 over the final two periods, the deficit was too much to overcome.
The loss dropped Edmonton’s record as big road favorites (-200 or greater) to 1-4 this season. Even worse, all four losses have been by two goals or more. So, forgive me if I’m hesitant to back Edmonton as a -375 moneyline favorite on the road. After all, the Blackhawks have been the third-most profitable home underdog this season, winning eight of 18 home games against favorites, including victories over the Stars, Panthers, and Avalanche.
The Oilers should win on Saturday. They’re the second-best team in expected goals percentage, the third-best in shot attempt percentage, and rank among the top 10 both offensively and defensively. However, from a betting perspective, they haven’t been profitable. The main issue is their struggles to close out lopsided matchups in regulation. In 16 games (home and away) where Edmonton had moneyline odds of -200 or more, the Oilers have managed just five regulation wins.
In the chart below, I’ve used closing moneyline and puck line odds to illustrate how much profit, or lack thereof, Edmonton has generated this season based on one-unit bets:
Handicapping the Blackhawks (14-28 SU, 20-22 ATS, 24-17-1 O/U)
The Blackhawks made a late push for a comeback against the Red Wings on Friday with two goals from Teuvo Teravainen, but Detroit held on for the win. The loss was Chicago’s seventh in its last nine games, dropping them to 6-10 under new head coach Anders Sorensen. It also marked the 10th time since Sorensen took over that Chicago had allowed four or more goals in a single game. In fact, no team has allowed more goals per 60 minutes than the Blackhawks during this stretch.
Chicago has also allowed more shots against (per 60) than all but two teams, but for what it’s worth, the Blackhawks have been a top-10 team on the penalty kill (87 percent) under their new head coach. They also rank 10th on the power play (23.5 percent), but they already ranked among the top-10 in both categories under the previous head coach, so there hasn’t been any real improvement. Special teams is also the only area in which the Blackhawks grade out as a good team.
According to Evolving Hockey, Chicago ranks 29th in expected goals percentage and 32nd in shot attempt percentage in all situations. The Blackhawks have scored slightly more goals per 60 minutes since the coaching change, but that looks more like variance than actual improvement. Offensively, Chicago ranks dead last in both expected goals and shot attempts.
Connor Bedard, Tyler Bertuzzi, and Teuvo Teravainen have all performed well under Sorensen. However, those three players account for nearly half of the team’s goals since the coaching change. Scoring depth is a major concern as the Blackhawks prepare to face an Oilers team that has been the league’s best offensive club for the better part of three months.
Best Bet for Oilers vs. Blackhawks
Zach Hyman Anytime Goal (+170) at Sports Interaction
This strategy didn’t work out in the last game, but I’m sticking with it. Zach Hyman consistently generates shots and scoring chances, and the +170 odds at Sports Interaction are significantly better than what other prominent sportsbooks are offering. Hyman has gone seven games without a goal, but he’s registered 18 shots on goal from 37 attempts, with his 3.55 expected goals ranking third on the team behind Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. Given Chicago’s defensive struggles—both in underlying metrics and surface-level results—Saturday’s game should present Hyman with plenty of opportunities to find the back of the net.
