Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Monday’s matchup between the Edmonton Oilers and Buffalo Sabres.
Oilers vs. Buffalo Sabres Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -183
- Buffalo Sabres Moneyline: +164
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+133), Sabres +1.5 (-150)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -121, Under +107)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Oilers (37-26 SU, 23-40 ATS, 29-33-1 O/U)
Edmonton finally showed up offensively on Saturday, scoring five goals in a game for the first time since Jan. 23—a good sign heading into Monday’s matchup. The Oilers have been playing far too many close games against weak opponents, a problem that can be fixed if they regain their scoring touch. They played great at even strength against the Stars, owning 60 percent of the shot attempts and nearly 57 percent of the expected goals.
There were several standout individual performances as well. Zach Hyman recorded his first multi-goal game since Jan. 23 and had three points in a game for just the second time this season. Connor McDavid also registered two points—a goal and an assist—while continuing to generate plenty of shots. He had four shots in the game, bringing him to 16 shots on goal over his last four outings. Of course, Leon Draisaitl factored into the scoring as well, notching an assist to extend his point streak to 14 games.
Defenseman Jake Walman also shined in his Oilers debut. The 29-year-old made an unbelievable stretch pass to pick up a primary assist on Hyman’s breakaway goal, registered three shots, and delivered a beautiful open-ice hit to the Stars’ big trade deadline pickup, Mikko Rantanen.
However, Edmonton’s lead nearly disappeared in the third period when Dallas scored three goals in under five minutes to make it 5-4. According to Evolving Hockey, goaltender Stuart Skinner finished the game with a save percentage of .840 and allowed 1.18 goals above expected, so his play could remain an issue if he doesn’t start turning things around.
The Oilers have split the last 10 meetings against the Sabres, and they have lost three out of their last four trips to Buffalo. Edmonton defeated the Sabres 3-2 at Rogers Place back on Jan. 25.
Handicapping the Sabres (24-38 SU, 30-32 ATS, 35-20-7 O/U)
The Sabres pulled off a big trade on deadline day, sending former No. 7 overall pick Dylan Cozens and 28-year-old defenseman Dennis Gilbert to the Ottawa Senators in exchange for forward Josh Norris, defenseman Jacob Bernard-Docker, and a second round pick in the 2026 NHL Draft. In 53 games with the Senators, Norris registered 20 goals and 13 assists.
The 25-year-old had his best season in 2021-22 when he scored 35 goals and 20 assists in 66 games, but he’s never played more than that in a full season due to injuries. Norris spent his Sabres’ debut on the top line alongside Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch and he was also part of the team’s top power play unit.
Buffalo will be looking to avoid losing its seventh game in a row on Monday. The Sabres have won six of their last eight home games dating back to Jan. 28, but they are 14-15-3 at home this season and currently sit dead last in the Eastern Conference standings with just 54 points. However, the team isn’t a total pushover, by any means.
While the Sabres do rank 26th in even-strength expected goals, they have been a break-even team when it comes to shot share and goal share. Buffalo also ranks fourth in goals per 60 minutes at even strength, ahead of the Oilers, but unfortunately, they give up just as much on defense, ranking among the bottom-10 teams in goals against per 60 minutes. They look even worse defensively in all situations, ranking 30th in goals against.
That said, Buffalo has actually been a profitable home underdog this season, winning eight of 16 games against road favorites for a total profit of 1.59 units.
On the injury front, Jason Zucker missed his sixth game in a row on Saturday. He is currently listed day-to-day with a lower-body injury. Jordan Greenway also missed the game due to an illness.
Best Bet for Oilers vs. Sabres
Connor McDavid Over 1.5 Points (-105) at Pinnacle
McDavid was buzzing on Saturday. Not only did he extend his points streak to seven games, he also recorded his third consecutive multi-point performance. The 28-year-old usually heats up around this time of year, and this season is no exception. Given how much he’s been shooting, and his elite playmaking ability, -105 odds make him an attractive bet to register another multi-point game on Monday in Buffalo.
