Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Thursday’s matchup between the Winnipeg Jets and Edmonton Oilers.
Jets vs. Oilers Odds
- Winnipeg Jets Moneyline: +109
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -120
- Puck Line: Jets +1.5 (-238), Oilers +1.5 (+205)
- Game Total: 6 (Over +102, Under -114)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Jets (47-22 SU, 35-34 ATS, 30-36-3 O/U)
Winnipeg had a rough night on Tuesday, surrendering six goals in a 6-2 loss to the Vancouver Canucks. Despite the setback, the Jets still hold a nine-point lead over the Dallas Stars for the top spot in both the Central Division and the Western Conference, though the race is far from over. They remain in contention for the Presidents’ Trophy but are currently tied in points with the Washington Capitals, who have a game in hand.
The Jets will look to bounce back on Thursday as they wrap up their three-game road trip before returning home for a four-game stretch. They haven’t faced Edmonton since shutting out the Oilers 6-0 in the season opener on Oct. 9, but the two teams have split their last 10 meetings.
Tuesday marked just the third time all season that Connor Hellebuyck allowed five or more goals—and the first since Nov. 16. That won’t hurt his Vezina Trophy chances, though. The two-time winner has been so dominant that sportsbooks have stopped offering odds on the award. In 53 games this season, the 31-year-old boasts a 2.05 goals against average, a .924 save percentage, and leads the league in goals saved above expected (+42.23), according to Evolving Hockey.
That said, Winnipeg is more than just elite goaltending. The Jets rank sixth in expected goals percentage and eighth in shot share at five-on-five. No team has allowed fewer goals this season, but they’re also among the league’s best offensively. Only two teams have scored more goals per 60 minutes (all situations), and they own the NHL’s top power play at 30.65%.
From a betting perspective, only the Capitals have been a more profitable moneyline bet. Per Action Labs, a bettor who backed every Hellebuyck start over the last two seasons would have a 75-35 record with a 16.3% return on investment and 17.9 units of profit.
Handicapping the Oilers (40-28 SU, 25-43 ATS, 30-37-1 O/U)
Edmonton’s offense exploded on Tuesday, scoring seven goals in a dominant win over the Utah Hockey Club. Six different players found the back of the net, and four recorded three points as the Oilers extended their winning streak to three games.
Defenseman Mattias Ekholm returned from a six-game absence and made an immediate impact with a goal and two assists. Zach Hyman, back after missing one game, also had a big night with two goals and an assist. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins continued his hot streak, scoring a shorthanded goal and adding two assists to give him six points over his last two games.
Connor McDavid contributed three points with a goal and two helpers to extend his point streak to 12 games, but surprisingly, Leon Draisaitl didn’t factor into the scoring, snapping his 18-game point streak. However, Draisaitl did register six shots in the game.
Nugent-Hopkins’ linemates, Viktor Arvidsson and Vasily Podkolzin, also scored, giving Edmonton’s third line a boost. The Oilers will hope to see continued production from that unit down the stretch.
The Oilers dominated the game, outshooting Utah 43-30, but they were particularly good at five-on-five, controlling nearly 68 percent of the expected goals. Utah was held to just 2.05 expected goals in all situations, and Edmonton held its opponent to just one goal for the third consecutive game.
With a win, Edmonton can move into a tie with the Vegas Golden Knights, who currently lead the Pacific Division, but Vegas will have to lose to the Boston Bruins, and that seems unlikely. However, winning on Thursday could be incredibly be tough for the Oilers if they are missing their top stars. McDavid, Draisaitl, Hyman, and Ekholm all missed practice on Wednesday, and head coach Kris Knoblauch said some of those players are banged up and might not play.
Best Bet for Jets vs. Oilers
Evan Bouchard Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-109) at Pinnacle
Winnipeg does a good job of limiting high-danger shots, and as a result, they allow more shots from the perimeter. The Jets rank among the bottom-10 teams in low-danger shots against, and that’s where Evan Bouchard comes in. Bouchard has registered three or more shots on goal in 12 of his last 18 games dating back to Jan. 30, and with Edmonton’s lineup in question, the Oilers will could be forced to rely on him even more than usual on Thursday.
