Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Thursday’s matchup between the Montreal Canadiens and Edmonton Oilers.
Canadiens vs. Oilers Odds
- Montreal Canadiens Moneyline: +213
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -242
- Puck Line: Canadiens +1.5 (-121), Oilers -1.5 (+108)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -108, Under -104)
Game odds courtesy of Pinnacle.
Handicapping the Canadiens (30-31 SU, 33-28 ATS, 30-26-5 O/U)
Montreal will be looking to keep its playoff hopes alive when it kicks off a four-game Western Conference road trip in Edmonton on Thursday. The Canadiens have won five games in a row since returning from the break, and they are just two points behind the Ottawa Senators for the second wild card spot in the Eastern Conference.
The Canadiens have a tough road ahead, though, as they have the fourth-toughest schedule based on regular season points, and 11 of their 21 remaining games will be played against teams that are currently in a playoff position.
According to Evolving Hockey, the Canadiens rank 16th in expected goals and shots at five-on-five since the start of February, but like the Oilers, they also rank among the bottom-10 teams in goals for and against at five-on-five. However, like Edmonton, Montreal also ranks among the top-10 on the power play over the last month and change, but it has been much better on the penalty kill than the Oilers have been as of late.
Montreal has gone 14-14-1 on the road, and the club is 5-5 against Western Conference teams away from home this season. That said, the team has won eight of its last 12 road games and, from a betting perspective, it has been the fourth-most profitable moneyline bet this season. The Canadiens have also been the fourth-most profitable underdog bet, but more importantly, they’ve been the second-best underdog bet on the road.
If a bettor had bet on Montreal to win all the road games in which they were listed as the underdog, that bettor would have a 13-13 record while sitting on more than 10 units of profit.
Handicapping the Oilers (35-26 SU, 22-39 ATS, 28-32-1 O/U)
Edmonton is coming off an embarrassing 6-2 loss to the Anaheim Ducks on home ice, marking its sixth loss in its last seven games. As a result, the Oilers are now six points back of the Vegas Golden Knights for the top spot in the Pacific Division.
Goaltending and defense have been big problems for Edmonton. The Oilers only allowed more than three goals in 16 of 19 games between Dec. 31 and the 4 Nations Face-Off. However, since returning from the break, Edmonton has allowed four or more goals in six of seven games, and its offense hasn’t been able to make up for it. The Oilers haven’t scored more than three goals in a game since returning to action.
These issues have raised a lot of questions about the team’s ability to go on another long playoff run. There were already concerns about the team’s goaltending tandem not being good enough to win a Stanley Cup, but now the forward corps is starting to show signs of weakness, too.
Edmonton has underperformed its expected goals by quite a bit since the start of February, so it’s fair to say the group has been unlucky. However, with little room to add scoring punch ahead of Friday’s trade deadline, the Oilers will need to figure things out from within.
From a betting perspective, Edmonton has been among the worst moneyline bets at home this season. The Oilers have gone 18-11-2 (58.1 percent) at Rogers Place, but because their average home moneyline odds are closer to 65 percent, it has resulted in a net loss of more than four units.
Additionally, the Oilers have posted a 9-22 record against the puck line on home ice thanks to an inability to finish weaker teams off in regulation. In 13 home games in which the Oilers’ moneyline odds have been -200 or higher, they have just six regulation wins.
Best Bets for Canadiens vs. Oilers
Leon Draisaitl Anytime Goal (-112) at Pinnacle
Canadiens’ forward Cole Caufield is hot, with four goals in his last five games, but Oilers’ superstar Leon Draisaitl is hotter, with 10 goals in his last 11 outings. Draisaitl also has six goals in his last seven games against the Canadiens.
Total – 1st Period – Over 1.5 (-139) at Pinnacle
Both Edmonton and Montreal rank among the top-12 teams in first period scoring since Jan. 1, but they also both rank among the bottom-10 in first period goals against during that time. In fact, Edmonton has allowed more first period goals than any team in the NHL since the New Year. The Oilers will likely try their best to start on time after allowing four goals in the first 20 minutes against the Ducks, but the Canadiens have enough scoring punch and they should also be up for this game.
