The Edmonton Oilers have the opportunity to put the Dallas Stars on the ropes Tuesday evening on home ice, after earning a 6-1 victory in a Game 3 that was not as one-sided as the final score suggested. Despite its multi-goal loss in on Sunday, oddsmakers have priced Dallas at +125 to win Game 4, which is the same number it closed at in Game 3.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Stars displayed some tactical adjustments in Game 3 after being outplayed somewhat considerably at even strength in Games 1 and 2, which did lead to a greater output of chances offensively. Dallas adjusted its forechecking tactics and was more aggressive overall along the walls and was able to generate 13 high-danger scoring chances in even-strength play compared to the Oilers’ total of eight.

The Stars were unable to finish many of their quality scoring chances through the first forty minutes of the game, and were forced to ramp up their aggressiveness to an even greater extent, which ultimately led to Zach Hyman’s 4-1 breakaway goal that effectively ended any hopes of a comeback after a quick transition from the defensive zone.

While Game 3 was far from the Stars’ worst performance of the playoffs, they did appear to be due to allow an offensive outburst of that nature for some time, considering their defensive play all postseason.

Jake Oettinger allowed six goals against from just 24 shots but was still not as awful as that stat line suggested. He still holds a +4.4 GSAx rating this postseason and has been able to bounce back effectively historically.

Roope Hintz is considered a true game-time decision after ultimately being unable to play in Game 3 despite taking pre-game warmups.

While Stuart Skinner has recorded three shutouts this postseason, his performance in Game 3 was his best by a significant margin. It was his first win in which the Oilers were arguably outplayed and in which he was asked to make plenty of difficult saves while the score was still close.

Skinner finished with a +2.85 GSAx rating in Game 3, and now holds a +0.2 GSAx rating across his eight appearances this postseason.

Edmonton’s defensive core had a difficult time moving the puck out of its zone in Game 3, which was a concern that led to the team allowing more chances against than it had since Game 2 of Round One versus the Los Angeles Kings. The Oilers’ coaching staff will surely be making some adjustments to help the team more effectively handle the Stars’ adjusted forecheck to try and prevent as much sustained time in the defensive zone.

While the Oilers’ spent much more time in the defensive zone than they had for most of the playoffs, they were able to do a respectable job of limiting true defensive collapses where numerous skaters are out of position attempting to compensate for someone elses mistake.

The Oilers were able to keep the Stars’ high-quality power play off the board in Game 3, though it took plenty of quality saves from Skinner, and a fortuitous bounce off the post on a shot from Mikko Rantanen. The Oilers’ penalty kill will remain without Mattias Ekholm for at least this matchup, who has been confirmed to remain unavailable due to injury.

The Stars’ offensive process looked much better in Game 3, as many of their struggling offensive skaters were able to generate more chances thanks to some tactical adjustments. While I’m still not sold on backing Dallas to win this game at +125, for the first time since Game 3 of Round Two my pick is not going to involve backing the Oilers to win.

Robertson has proven to be one of the streakier players in the NHL, and could receive a boost from finally getting his first of the playoffs in Game 3. He generated a game-high 0.81 expected goals from 11 shot attempts.

Whether Hintz returns or not it seems likely that head coach Pete DeBoer will leave Robertson higher up the lineup card in this matchup, and at +270 there looks to be value backing Robertson to score once again in tonight’s matchup.