The Edmonton Oilers and Vegas Golden Knights will kick off what should be a spectacular series when they meet Tuesday evening at T-Mobile Arena, where the Knights have historically proven to hold a significant home ice advantage.

The Oilers are slight underdogs to win the series at -105 but are actually considered more likely to win the Stanley Cup by the majority of sportsbooks, with a consensus price of +500.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

All of the Oilers’ perceived weaknesses came to light early on in their series versus the Los Angeles Kings, but they were able to clean things up enough to ultimately earn a 4-2 series victory.

The analytics and eye test would both agree that the Oilers were heavily outplayed in Games 1 and 2 versus the Kings, as they exhibited far too many defensive breakdowns and received shaky play in goal from Stuart Skinner. From that point on, they took over the series, generating a wealth of quality scoring chances versus a Kings’ side that was statistically the best defensive team in the NHL this series.

Connor McDavid continued their historic playoff scoring rates versus the Kings, as they combined for 21 points in just six games. It appears as though they will remain paired together on the team’s top line in tonight’s matchup alongside Corey Perry, a line which generated 4.27 xGF/60 last round and held a 70.5 percent expected goal share.

As will typically be the case, the play of McDavid and Draisaitl was the greatest reason the Oilers were able to get past the Kings, but there were plenty of positive developments in the latter half of the series.

Evander Kane seemed to really find his legs in the final three games of the series and provided an X-factor, chipping in two goals and an assist. The Oilers’ newly formed second offensive trio of Kane, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Zach Hyman held a 76.7 percent expected goal share and generated 5.65 expected goals per 60.

If Edmonton’s second trio can continue to produce results remotely close to what we saw at the end of the Kings series, it will make them an extremely difficult team to beat, as it will allow head coach Kris Knoblauch to keep McDavid and Draisaitl stacked on a top line, which will generally succeed in any matchup.

The Oilers’ defensive core looked to be a significant concern early on versus the Kings and will get a more difficult test in this series versus a Knights’ side that scored 3.34 goals per game this season. In even-strength play during the regular season, though, the Kings actually did produce goals at a higher rate than the Knights, and it was Vegas’s incredible power play that did the heavy lifting for the team offensively.

The Oilers’ penalty kill succeeded on just 60 percent of opportunities versus the Kings and clearly missed the calming presence of Mattias Ekholm. The Knights owned the second most effective power play in the league this season, which could be concerning given Edmonton’s inability to shut down a Kings power play, which typically has not been much of a strength.

The Oilers’ power play was also highly effective versus the Kings, as they succeeded on 38.5 percent of opportunities in the series. Over the last several postseasons, Edmonton’s power play has been tremendously effective and will always provide an avenue to steal games in which their overall game at five-on-five is not entirely sharp.

The Oilers will likely stick with Calvin Pickard in this matchup after going 4-0 in his starts last series with a -0.9 GSAx rating and .893 save percentage.

The Knights were able to get past the Minnesota Wild in Round One in six games, in a series that was more competitive than most would have expected. If not for a disallowed goal due to an offside review in the final minutes of Game 5, Vegas likely would have been heading back to Minnesota down 3-2, and it was outplayed somewhat considerably in a series-deciding Game 6.

The Knights finished the series with an expected goal share of just 49.85 percent across all strengths and held a -1 goal differential overall in the series, but managed to close it out with three straight 3-2 victories. They are obviously a playoff proven group, which could be credited with having a knack for owning the clutch moments in each game, but there are some pretty strong arguments that suggest that the Wild actually deserved a better result.

The Oilers may catch a break as Pavel Dorofeyev missed today’s morning skate and may remain sidelined in this matchup. Dorofeyev had a major breakout this season with 35 goals in 82 games, and his elite one-timer was one of the greatest reasons the Knights power play was so dominant this season.

Adin Hill had a middling performance in Round One, as he finished with a -2.0 GSAx rating and .880 save percentage in six games played. He was brilliant in the team’s 3-2 win in Game Six though, and has to be viewed as the Knights’ greatest potential edge entering this series.

It seems likely that Game 1 could turn out to be a thriller, as there are several arguments that suggest both offences are poised to do some damage.

Pickard was able to hang in respectably versus the Kings, but he’s far from the most convincing option and likely will never do more than stop the shots he is supposed to. That might be all the Oilers need from him to author another deep run considering their offensive upside, though, particularly if they continue to receive strong play from so many forwards aside from McDavid and Draisaitl.

Edmonton’s penalty kill is a concern entering this matchup, but contrary to the regular season results, the Oilers’ power play unit still looks to be the better of the two units and could provide an edge in this series. Edmonton will also have a better chance of shutting the Knights’ elite power play down in this matchup if Dorofeyev remains sidelined, as his one-timer is the greatest threat on Vegas’s top unit.

The Knights’ performance versus the Wild was not overly convincing, and it seems possible that they are getting too much respect entering this series.

At a price of +115, I see value in taking a shot backing the Oilers to build off their strong finish versus a high-quality Kings side versus a Knights team that did not look overly dominant in Round One.

Backing the game to go over 6.5 goals also looks tempting and would be my lean in terms of a total, and if the price came down to -110 I would be adding that play as well.