After earning a convincing victory in Game 1, the Edmonton Oilers have the opportunity to return home with a 2-0 series stranglehold in their series versus the Vegas Golden Knights.

The Oilers took advantage of a Knights’ side playing without two key pieces in Game 1, and were the better team for the vast majority of the game. Despite its convincing win in Game 1, Edmonton is a slightly lesser underdog in Game 2 of the series after some line movement Thursday morning.

I’ll detail the relevant game notes and outline my favourite betting angles below.

The Oilers were forced to fight an uphill battle in Game 1 after Ryan Nugent-Hopkins took a double minor 1:33 into the first period, which resulted in a power-play goal against. Mark Stone then doubled the Knights’ lead midway through the second, but from there on out, the Oilers got into an excellent rhythm, and it was one-way traffic for the rest of the evening.

The Oilers held a 14-7 edge in high-danger scoring chances across all strengths and a 13-3 edge in high-danger scoring chances at even strength. They outshot the Knights 28 to 17 and allowed only 2.12 expected goals against. The eye test certainly agreed with the analytics in suggesting Edmonton was clearly the superior side, as after the 2-0 goal, Calvin Pickard really was not forced to do very much.

Aside from early on in the first period, the Oilers’ defensive core was able to limit its miscues and benefited from strong back pressure from the forwards through the middle of the ice. Edmonton is always going to get its chances offensively and carry much of the overall run of play, and if it can continue to prevent soft breakdowns from happening, it will prove to be a very tough out this postseason.

The Oilers’ second pairing of Jake Walman and John Klingberg has emerged as a surprisingly excellent unit. In 66.5 minutes together this postseason, they hold a 71.6% expected goal share and have leaned on strong puck movement to stay on the front foot. Klingberg still has his issues defending the rush, but he’s been well supported by Edmonton’s forwards in the neutral zone, which has helped to keep that flaw from being exposed.

The Oilers’ power play failed to break through in Game 1, but that may not be a concern to worry too much about. Edmonton’s top unit looked fine in the series opener and is never likely to be a concern for more than an evening or two. The fact that the Oilers fared so well at even strength is more important than a momentary lapse from a historically talented power play unit.

Pickard was not asked to do much in Game 1, but he stopped the shots he was supposed to, which is all the team is asking for. Pickard holds a -0.8 GSAx rating and .891 save percentage this postseason.

As outlined ahead of Game 1, the Knights really did not look all that convincing in Round One versus the Minnesota Wild, and appeared to be lucky to end the series in six games. They were without two key pieces in Game 1 as Alex Pietrangelo and Pavel Dorofeyev were both sidelined, but it was an extremely unconvincing performance from the Knights nonetheless.

Through seven playoff games, the Knights hold an expected goal share of 48.17% and have scored only 2.72 goals per 60 while allowing 3.14 goals against per 60.

The Knights are a team known for defending well inside of their own zone, but the amount of time in which they have spent defending has been concerning. A defensive core that was thought to be rock solid has looked fairly middling, as it has had a difficult time driving play in the other direction. Noah Hanifin and Zach Whitecloud hold an expected goal share of just 41.9% and hold a goal differential of -2.

Adin Hill has not been great, as he holds a -3.6 GSAx rating and .876 save percentage so far this postseason, but he’s likely not been as bad as those numbers suggest, as his play was still a key reason the team snuck past the Wild.

The Knights will surely attempt to play more aggressively in this matchup and attempt to expose an Oilers defensive core whose greatest strengths revolve more around driving play at the other end of the ice rather than being overly strong in the defensive zone.

While the Knights are better than we saw in Game 1, it’s still hard to feel they deserve to be this favoured in Game 2. Vegas’s entire playoff run has not been remotely convincing, while the Oilers have carried play at a higher rate than any other team this playoff and have the talent to finish those chances off at a high rate.

If Adin Hill is not going to completely outplay Pickard in this series, Edmonton should have a great chance of making it to the Western Conference Final, and I believe betting the Oilers to steal Game 2 at +110 provides value.