Join Daily Faceoff’s Andy MacNeil as he handicaps Friday’s matchup between the Utah Hockey Club and Edmonton Oilers.
Edmonton Oilers vs. Utah Hockey Club Odds
- Utah Hockey Club Moneyline: -165
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: +140
- Puck Line: Edmonton -1.5 (+145), Utah +1.5 -175)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over +100, Under -120)
Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Utah Hockey Club (10-11 SU, 12-10 ATS, 8-12-2 O/U)
Utah returns to home ice after a four-game Eastern Conference road trip, where they defeated Pittsburgh and Montreal and played close, one-goal games in Boston and Toronto. Despite a 3-2 overtime win against the Canadiens and two days of rest, the team has struggled to find consistency, failing to win consecutive games since starting the season 3-0. They’ve also dropped five of eight home games since their season-opening victory over Chicago.
The club has notched notable wins this season against strong opponents like the Bruins, Rangers, and Hurricanes, but their record against playoff teams sits at just 4-9 straight up. However, Utah’s underlying metrics are encouraging—they rank among the top five in shot attempt percentage at five-on-five, with only three teams generating more shot attempts and just four better at suppressing them.
Clayton Keller continues to lead the way for Utah with 20 points in 21 games, but he’s tied with Edmonton native Dylan Guenther, who has also recorded 20 points and leads the team with 10 goals on a team-high 56 shots.
Goaltender Karel Vejmelka has been another key bright spot. According to Evolving Hockey’s expected goals model, Vejmelka ranks as the league’s third-best goaltender, saving approximately 12 goals above what an average netminder would have allowed under similar circumstances. Utah hasn’t been good on special teams, but strong five-on-five play and solid goaltending have allowed the team to more or less play .500 hockey.
Handicapping the Edmonton Oilers (11-11 SU, 7-15 ATS, 9-12-1 O/U)
The Edmonton Oilers begin a three-game road trip on Friday with their first-ever matchup against the Utah Hockey Club. Edmonton was Arizona’s final opponent in franchise history last season, falling 5-2 to the Desert Dogs at Mullet Arena on April 17, 2024. Before that loss, the Oilers had won seven of their previous nine meetings against the largely unchanged franchise.
Friday’s game follows a five-day break for Edmonton, who will also face Colorado and Vegas before returning home for three straight games at Rogers Place. Despite the time off, injuries remain an issue, as Zach Hyman and Viktor Arvidsson are still sidelined. Head coach Kris Knoblauch stated earlier this week that neither player is expected to play Friday in Utah or Saturday in Colorado.
Despite these setbacks, Edmonton enters as the favorite, but similarities between the two teams suggest it could be a closer contest than the odds suggest. Like Utah, Edmonton ranks among the top five in shot attempts for and against per 60 minutes, and the teams are separated by just one percentage point in expected goals percentage. Edmonton is also a lot better on the penalty kill than Utah, but the Oilers’ power play is still struggling to find its level.
The Oilers do generate more expected goals, but Utah’s scoring rate is better and there’s virtually nothing separating these two teams on defense. Well, outside of goaltending. As mentioned, Utah has one of the better starters in the NHL currently, but Edmonton has Stuart Skinner and Calvin Pickard. Skinner has posted the fifth-worst mark in goals saved above expected, while Pickard ranks 48th among goaltenders that have faced at least 200 unblocked shot attempts.
Best Bet for Edmonton Oilers vs. Utah Hockey Club
Over 6.5 Goals (+100) at Sports Interaction
Friday’s matchup shapes up as a high-event game. While both teams excel at suppressing shots at five-on-five, they also generate plenty of attempts, ensuring the goaltenders will face a heavy workload. Both squads are rested, but Edmonton could show some rust after an extended break, particularly in goal, where neither netminder has performed above average. Not to mention, six out of Edmonton’s last eight games have featured at least seven goals. Therefore, the over is a solid bet at even money.
Connor Brown Anytime Goal (+400) at Sports Interaction
Vasily Podkolzin scored his first goal of the season in his last outing while skating alongside Leon Draisaitl and Connor Brown. Draisaitl earned the primary assist, with Brown contributing the secondary helper. Brown had four shots on goal from five attempts and logged a season-high 18:03 of ice time, a full three minutes more than in any previous game this season.
Slated to remain on Draisaitl’s line Friday, Brown offers solid value as an anytime goal scorer at 4/1 odds despite the fact that he has only scored seven goals in his last 111 regular season games dating back to 2021-22. Brown is a two-time 20-goal scorer that doesn’t often get the opportunity to play with Edmonton’s best forwards.