The NHL free agent frenzy is almost upon us. It’s an exciting time of year, but also one that’s left plenty of scar tissue on the Edmonton Oilers in recent history.

In 2024, the team made a big splash on July 1 when they signed Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson. Despite their impressive track records, both veterans spent time in the bottom six and the press box — not exactly the best use of their combined $7 million cap hit.

Last year, Edmonton’s biggest July 1 move was signing Andrew Mangiapane to a two-year deal with an AAV of $3.6 million. The fit was so poor that Stan Bowman paid a premium to trade him just seven months later.

Considering the damage they’ve done to their cap sheet the last couple of years, I wouldn’t blame the Oilers if they sat out the first day of free agency altogether this time around. But to plug the remaining holes in their roster, they’ll have to dip their toes into the free agent pool at some point. And they can’t afford another misstep.

According to PuckPedia, Edmonton has roughly $7.4 million of cap space remaining, and their pending restricted free agents, Colton Dach and Spencer Stastney, shouldn’t put much of a dent in that. With Jack Roslovic and Kasperi Kapanen expected to depart, they’ll likely use most of that money on another middle-six forward. Few players make more sense to fill that role than Matias Maccelli.

Earlier this week, TSN Hockey insider Chris Johnston reported that the Toronto Maple Leafs would not be issuing Maccelli a qualifying offer, making him an unrestricted free agent. It’s still possible that the Leafs re-sign him, but if not, the Oilers are a great fit. The 25-year-old winger has recorded at least 39 points in 3 of his last 4 seasons. This year, he did almost all of his damage at five-on-five.

Maccelli out-produced every Oiler at five-on-five last season besides Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. That’s an impressive feat on a Toronto team that lacked consistent puck-moving from the back end. By the end of the season, he led the Leafs with a 50.4 per cent expected goal share, making him the only forward on his team to out-chance the opposition.

Maccelli’s offensive production and play-driving are impressive enough on their own, but the way he does it makes him particularly attractive to the Oilers: through excellent passing.

As a 5-foot-11 forward with only average speed, Maccelli relies on his hands and playmaking to produce offence. He’s deceptive and smart with the puck, which is something the Oilers don’t have enough of. Besides McDavid and Draisaitl, none of the other top six forwards on the team are skilled playmakers. Zach Hyman and Vasily Podkolzin play more of a forechecking and net front role, while Matt Savoie creates offence by making smart reads away from the puck to find holes in coverage. Edmonton’s high-end passing comes almost entirely from McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard, giving them fewer ways to make things happen without those three setting the table. That would change if they signed Maccelli.

Maccelli ranks well above league average in every passing microstat tracked by All Three Zones. His ability to set up chances and high-danger shots is in the upper echelon of the league.

I love what Maccelli would bring to this lineup from an offensive perspective, but he’s no slouch defensively either. For a smaller forward, he’s quite active in defensive zone battles and was still relatively successful at defending under Craig Berube, who tends to prefer bigger, more physical forwards. He may not be a traditional two-way forward, and he may not kill penalties, but analytics models from HockeyViz, JFresh, and Evolving Hockey consistently ranked him above league average in defensive impact last season.

Maccelli’s game would add an important element to the Oilers, who have had their eye on him for a while. Back in February, Sportsnet’s Nick Kypreos reported that Edmonton tried to acquire Maccelli in exchange for Mangiapane, but the Leafs “weren’t too interested.”

Some have speculated that Ilya Mikheyev may attract the Oilers’ attention in free agency instead, given his speed and penalty-killing prowess. While it wouldn’t hurt to add those tools, Edmonton already re-signed a pair of veterans for their defensive impact and penalty killing. I’d like to see them go a different route next: Younger, higher upside, and more creative with the puck.

Free agency is often when teams make the most mistakes, a lesson the Oilers have learned the hard way. If they’re going to get it right this time, they need to be extremely deliberate in who they spend their money on. Ideally, it should be someone with upside. Someone who addresses a need. Someone who isn’t on the wrong side of the age curve. Maccelli checks those boxes. If he wants to test the market, the Oilers should be near the front of the line.