The Western Conference Final is entering “Oilers time.”
Under Kris Knoblauch, Game 4 is where the Oilers take a series over and dominate. Edmonton is 16-2 in Games 4-7 in its previous six series. Last year, they went 3-0 vs. Dallas in those games to win the series in six games. Their dominance late in a series is impressive and tonight presents another great opportunity to take a stranglehold on the series.
The Oilers have controlled much of this series. The Stars outscored them 5-0 in the third period of Game 1, but in the other eight periods, Edmonton has outscored them 12-2. One period makes the series look closer than it has been, but it’s also a reminder of how the Oilers can’t let up at any moment. Dallas could win tonight, and despite being outplayed for seven of the first nine periods, they could even up the series and head home with home ice advantage.
The Oilers are 8-0 in Game 4s over the past three playoff years. They are 6-0 under Knoblauch. Dallas is 6-2 with Pete Deboer. Darnell Nurse spoke about their record late in a series.
“I think as series go on our team just continues to buckle down and find that killer instinct,” said Nurse. “We are good at building series and finding ways to take a hold of the series later. It is all experience. With anything, the more and more you have that experience, you just play and not think too much. You just enjoy the moments and more you put yourself through these situations the more comfortable you feel.”
Nurse also said that in some of those series, their backs were against the wall and they needed wins, which was the case in the Stanley Cup Final, and that is true, but they’ve also been ahead often and put teams away. Tonight, they can’t eliminate Dallas, but they can put them in a big hole. When the Oilers are either in a position to eliminate a team or are facing elimination themselves, they are 9-1 over the past two seasons.
They know how to win the big game, and they’ve shown they can win almost any way in Game 4.
In the opening round of 2024, they were outshot 33-13 in LA, but Stuart Skinner was excellent, and the Oilers’ PP scored the only goal in a 1-0 win.
Round two vs. Vancouver, the Oilers scored first, but the game was close all the way through, until Evan Bouchard scored the game winner with 39 seconds remaining. They won 3-2.
Round three vs. Dallas, the Stars led 2-0 only 5:29 into the game, but the Oilers scored five straight and won 5-2.
Round four vs. Florida, the Oilers were facing elimination and crushed Florida 8-1.
Round one this year vs. LA, they trailed 2-0 early in the second period, then 3-1, before scoring the final three goals, including Leon Draisaitl’s OT winner, to win 4-3.
Round two vs. Vegas, Adam Henrique scored two first-period goals and the Oilers didn’t give up much in a 3-0 victory.
The Oilers won low-scoring and high-scoring games, when they scored first or trailed (twice by two goals), and one even contest until the final minutes. They’ve been able to rise to the occasion and win games when it matters most later in the series. Do it again tonight and their path to a second-consecutive Stanley Cup Final will be much easier.

SNAPSHOTS…

— Historically, the Oilers franchise is very good when leading a series 2-1. They have an all-time series record of 21-3 (.875) and they are 3-0 in the Conference Finals.
— Ryan Nugent-Hopkins can become only the eighth active player to start a series with four consecutive multi-point games. He’s produced two, two and three points to start this series.
— It is interesting looking at the W% historically in a series. These numbers are for teams who start a series on the road.
Lose Game 1 (0-1): 123-368 (.251W%)
Series tied 1-1: 164-203 (.447).
Lead series 2-1: 141-89 (.613).
Now, look at how much difference the odds of winning the series are if the Oilers win tonight compared to if they lose.
Lead series 3-1: 112-15 (.882).
Series tied 2-2: 124-176 (.413).
A victory tonight should make Oilersnation much more comfortable.
— Vegas scored the most goals off the rush in the regular season. The Oilers took that part of their game away as Vegas only scored three goals off the rush in their series. Dallas scored the second-most goals off the rush, and through three games, the Oilers have not only limited their chances, but they’ve dominated them off the rush.
— Before the series began, I outlined that the major struggle for the Stars was their 5×5 scoring, specifically the lack of production from too many forwards. Through three games that has continued. The Oilers have crushed them 5×5, outscoring Dallas 9-3. Nugent-Hopkins has more assists (5) himself than the entire Stars team (4). Tyler Seguin (2) and Jason Robertson are the only Stars with a goal 5×5. They are the only Dallas players with two points. Mikko Rantanen, Sam Steel and Lian Bichsel have one assist.
Meanwhile, the Oilers have six different goal scorers and 10 players with at least one point.  McDavid and Bouchard have two goals each, while Zach Hyman, Leon Draisaitl. Brett Kulak and Connor Brown have also scored.
— Dallas has a lead in the series for only 14:02, which was the final 14:02 of Game 1. Edmonton has led for 122:52 while the game has been tied for 43:06. The Oilers have scored first in all three games, and with Dallas struggling to score 5×5, getting the lead has been a major advantage for Edmonton.
— Roope Hintz skated yesterday, but he wasn’t on the ice for the optional skate this morning. Very few Stars were. Look for him to play.
— Viktor Arvidsson draws in for Connor Brown. Arvidsson made it clear it was tough getting sat for the past five games.
“I guess they wanted to make a change, and that’s what they did,” said Arvidsson. “Coming back (in) I have to play the same way I did and as I’ve always done. Bring energy, get pucks on net, bodies to the net, forecheck and play good defensively. I think I should be out there. I’m happy to be back and I think I played well when I was playing.”
Knoblauch wouldn’t say what his lines will be tonight. Arvidsson had played quite well with Mattias Janmark and Vasily Podkolzin before he came out of the lineup, and we could see them reunited.

LINEUPS…

Oilers

Draisaitl – McDavid – Perry
 Kane – RNH –Hyman
Frederic – Henrique – Kapanen
Podkolzin – Janmark – Arvidsson
or
RNH – McDavid – Hyman
Podkozlin – Draisaitl – Kapanen
Kane – Henrique – Arvidsson
Frederic– Janmark – Perry
Kulak – Bouchard
Nurse – Stecher
Walman – Klingberg
Skinner
Calvin Pickard will dress as the backup tonight. The defense pairings will be the same, but the forward lines won’t be known until warmup. Knoblauch could just put Arvidsson in for Brown, but he also switched his lines late during the second period last game, as Dallas was dominating that period, and the changes worked as the Oilers scored late in the frame and then scored three times in the final period. The lines have changed at various times these playoffs and it seems every combination Knoblauch goes with finds success.

Stars

Granlund – Hintz – Rantanen
Marchment – Duchene – Seguin
Robertson – Johnston – Benn
Blackwell – Steel – Dadonov
Harley – Heiskanen
Lindell – Ceci
Bichsel – Petrovic
Oettinger
I expect Hintz to play and he’ll slot back in on the top line. Again, these lines are a projection, as Pete Deboer wouldn’t confirm if Hintz was playing. Whatever combinations he runs with, the Stars need someone to score 5×5. They are getting crushed, and if that doesn’t change, I don’t see how they can win the series.

TONIGHT…

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers continue to show a killer instinct late in a playoff series and win 4-2.
OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid picks up his 140th career playoff point in his 89th game.
NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Evander Kane scores the game-winning goal and becomes the 10th different Oiler to score a GWG this postseason.