History has proven that the “winners” on July 1 rarely become the winners on the ice during the season. Spending big money in free agency doesn’t lead to Stanley Cup success very often, if ever. However, NHL teams can augment their team, and make smart, astute signings that keep them pushing in the right direction.

The Edmonton Oilers signed five players and acquired two more via trades on the opening day of free agency, and those new players carry a combined cap hit of $9.412m next season. Edmonton didn’t spend big money. Instead, they took some low-risk swings.

The biggest move was trading Darnell Nurse to San Jose for Shakir Mukhamadullin and prospect Zach Sharp. Mukhamadullin is an restricted free agent who was qualified at $1 million. He was the 20th overall pick in 2020 and is still trying to find his way in the NHL. He will battle with Ty Emberson for the third-pair right-side spot. He shoots left but can play both ways. The Oilers didn’t retain any of Nurse’s $9.25 million contract, and that allowed them to sign Ryan Shea for five years at $4 million AAV. Shea, Mattias Ekholm and Jake Walman will make up the left side of the Oilers’ defence. I’d expect Shea to be paired with Connor Murphy on the Oilers’ top PK unit. Shea was on the top PK pair in Pittsburgh last season, and they had the 6th best PK in the NHL.

Shea was the biggest signing, dollar-wise and time-on-ice-wise, and Kasperi Kapanen was the second, as he signed a one-year, $2.6 million AAV deal. Kapanen returns to the Oilers after he tested free agency. He wanted to remain in Edmonton and will be a good fit in the Oilers’ top nine. He was their best forward in the playoffs, and he and Jason Dickinson were a very good PK pair.

I expect the Oilers’ first PK unit to consist of Kapanen, Jason Dickinson, Shea, and Connor Murphy.

The Oilers also signed depth forwards Mathieu Joseph ($1m) and Max Jones ($850K) to one-year deals. Jones, when healthy, was a solid fourth line forward last season for the Oilers. Both will be depth forwards, but with the Oilers likely to carry three goalies, I don’t see a scenario that both are on the opening night roster, and in fact, neither might be as the Oilers will only carry 13 forwards.

The Oilers signed Stanley Cup winner Freddie Andersen to a one-year deal with a base salary of $1m and another $1.8m in performance bonuses. He receives a $600,000 bonus when he plays 10 games and another $400,000 when he plays 20 games, and he gets $200,000 for each playoff round won where he plays 50 per cent of the games. Currently, the Oilers have a lot of cap space, so they can just budget for his bonuses, and not have them carry over into next season, but even if they do, the cap goes up to $113m next season and none of the Oilers top players need a new contract, so if they want to maximize all their cap space this season they could.

Edmonton also acquired Devon Levi and a seventh-round pick in 2028 from Buffalo for a third-round pick in 2028. Levi has one year remaining at $812,500. Levi has yet to find any consistency at the NHL level. He played seven NHL games after leaving the NCAA in 2023. Then he split the 2024 season with 23 games in the NHL and 26 in the NHL. In 2025 he played 42 AHL games and nine NHL games and last season he spent the entire season in the NHL playing 52 games. It was clear he was rushed to the NHL on a bad Buffalo team, and his numbers reflect that. The Oilers took a low-risk bet in acquiring him. He turns 25 in December, and many goalies find their stride at 25 or 26. Maybe he will in Edmonton. The Oilers plan to carry three goalies on the roster and it will be interesting to see how they split starts between Tristan Jarry, Andersen and Levi.

It is a valid question. Let’s dig in.

1. Jarry and Andersen have a history with injuries, so there will likely be stretches where only two goalies are healthy, or maybe the lessened workload will allow all three to remain healthy. Andersen started 35 games last year and started 22, 16 and 33 the previous three seasons. Jarry started 29 games last between Edmonton and Pittsburgh and 35 in 2025. From 2022 to 2024 he started 56, 47 and 48. Jarry got injured in his third game with the Oilers last season, and he when he returned to play, he was never fully healthy. Levi has yet to find any consistent success in the NHL.

When healthy, Andersen is a very good goalie, but Carolina needed three goalies to win the Cup, and the Oilers are going to start the season with a similar plan. Between the three of them, they should be able to get enough quality starts, but each goalie does have different questions about how effective they can be.

2. For the first time in years, the Oilers have cap flexibility. They currently have 13 forwards, six D-men and three goalies signed. Colton Dach, Makhamadullin and Spencer Stastney need contracts, but with the Oilers expected to carry three goalies, Edmonton will likely carry 13 forwards and seven D-men. But, unlike previous seasons, if they run into short-term injuries, they have lots of cap space to put players on IR and recall others. They won’t have to carry 2o or 21 players on the roster.

Edmonton has $7,253,334 in cap space. Even if you budget for Andersen potential $1.8m of bonuses they have $5.453m in cap space.

Their current forward group has:

Savoie-McDavid-Hyman
Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Kapanen
RNH-Dickinson-Howard
Janmark-Samanski-Frederic
Joseph

When Dach signs, he’d be ahead of Joseph on my roster. Signing Dach won’t eat up much cap space as his deal will likely be close to Joseph’s $1m AAV. The above lines aren’t set in stone, and head coach Mike Babcock will try a few different combinations, but I was just outlining who is currently signed. I could also see the Oilers looking at a summer trade to add another scoring winger.

The blueline will be some combination of:

Ekholm-Bouchard
Walman-Murphy
Shea-Emberson
Makhamadullin

When Makhamadullin signs he will take up around $1m-$1.2m of cap space, while will leave the Oilers with around $6m in cap space. At this point, I don’t see how Spencer Stastney is on the opening night roster, unless someone is on IR. His AAV won’t be more than the $1.225m allowed buried cap hit this season, so unless the Oilers have injuries to start the season, their cap hit won’t be impacted by his signing.

3. The removal of Nurse created lots of cap flexibility, but he was a proven top three D-man. Ryan Shea is not that, at least not yet. Shea averaged 18:53/game last season with Pittsburgh. He had an amazing breakout season, after only playing 39 and 31 games in his first two NHL seasons. Shea could be a late bloomer. The Oilers believe last year wasn’t a fluke, and if Shea is only a very good #5, D-man that is okay. He did play 353 minutes v. Elite competition at 5×5 last season, which was fourth most among Penguins defenders. He had an on-ice save percentage of .935%Sv, and he did have the best DFF% of the top four D-men. He doesn’t have a large enough sample size to say for certain he can be a consistent top four defender yet, but the Oilers are betting he can will be after how he performed last season.

The Oilers D corps is smaller and less physical with the departure of Nurse. However, the Western Conference isn’t as big or physical as the Eastern Conference right now, so their new configuration should be okay, at least for the regular season. If they realize they need more size and physicality, they have the cap space to make moves at the trade deadline.

4. The Oilers current forward group consists of many of the same players as last season. Jack Roslovic is gone to Toronto and Isaac Howard replaces him. Howard did play 29 games for the Oilers last season, but he should have a bigger role. Dickinson and Samanski were added late last season, while Zach Hyman missed the first 19 games. He is expected to be fully healthy when the season starts.

Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will be the drivers. They will be rested. They will be driven to be more consistent defensively and managing the puck, as well as showing their new head coach they are prepared to handle his personality. I wrote two days after the Oilers lost to the Ducks, that I expected them to start well next season, and I have no reason to change. This team underachieved in the regular season. They admitted they didn’t take the regular season serious enough, and we won’t see a repeat performance this year.

5. But are they better? I guess it depends on what you felt they were before. They have two superstars and an elite D-man in Evan Bouchard. That makes them an automatic contender in my eyes. But is their depth better? Is their goaltending better?

Andersen is clearly an upgrade on Calvin Pickard/Connor Ingram who were essentially the backup goalies last year. So, I will say they are better, but there are health concerns in goal as Jarry and Andersen have battled injuries the past few seasons.

I’m not sold Shea is a clear upgrade over Nurse. They are very different players. Nurse is more established, and his ability to avoid injuries and be in the lineup every game can’t be overlooked. Shea will likely make fewer major errors, but he doesn’t skate as well as Nurse and isn’t close to as physical. Having Murphy in the lineup from the start of the season does clearly upgrade the right side though.

Last year they started with Ekholm, Bouchard, Nurse, Walman, Kulak and Emberson. This year they start with Ekholm, Bouchard, Walman, Murphy, Shea and Emberson. Walman needs to avoid injuries, which has been a challenge thus far.

I can’t say for certain the defence is better, but it is different and I don’t think it is a clear downgrade overall. We will likely see improved defensive play from the team, as the players and coaches will be focused on being more attentive and committed defensively.

To me, the biggest advantage they have now is cap flexibility. General manager Stan Bowman put himself in a position where he can make some big additions near the trade deadline, if he feels it is necessary. The Oilers have made moves prior, but often they were challenged with limited cap space. That won’t be an issue, but having more cap space is only a benefit if you use it wisely.

And yesterday, I think Bowman used it properly. There were no glaring overpayments. All the signings were one year, expect for Shea. That is the biggest win for the Oilers, because overpaying on day one of free agency often leads to more frustration than happiness.