A jack-of-all-trades but a master of none, regression came hunting for Ryan Nugent-Hopkins this season. 20 goals and 49 points in 78 games is a noticeable dip from the 67-point and 104-point seasons he had in each of the last two years. While his shooting percentage remained at a career level overall, his ability to set up teammates dipped with a .37 assists per game rate well below the 0.5 he’s averaged in his career.

Part of that dip in production is due to some scoring regression from Connor McDavid, Zach Hyman and Evan Bouchard. There was, to put it simply, a little less offence to go around from this group this season.

Nugent-Hopkins still remained an effective player. With him on the ice the Oilers regularly controlled the shot attempt share, scoring chance share, and expected goal share, while breaking even in terms of actual goal share.

And while there was scoring regression in the regular season, there sure wasn’t in the playoffs. He chipped in six goals and 20 points in 22 games, including a goal and nine assists at five-on-five. The Oilers lost the shot attempt share battle, but won where it mattered most as they dominated the expected goal share and controlled 61.1 percent of the goals scored with him on the ice. His playoff performance was, to put it simply, huge for the Oilers.

His individual impacts did take a hit this season, however. According to Hockey Viz, he drove offence at a five percent rate below league average, defence at a five percent rate above league average, power play work at a four percent rate above league average and penalty kill work at a two percent rate below league average. Overall, his impact was at the rate of a low-end third-line player, on the cusp of a fourth line player.

It’s important to note that’s not who Nugent-Hopkins is, but this is a rate that he has been at before, most recently the 2021-22 season, and was even below this mark between 2015-16 and 2019-20.

There’s no denying the value he brings to the team in many ways, and the question is how the team will utilize him moving forward. He had success playing up the middle during the regular season, expressing how comfortable he was there.

With added depth on the wings in Andrew Mangiapane, Matt Savoie and Ike Howard, one has to wonder if the third-line centre spot will be Nugent-Hopkins’ new home.

Zach Laing is Oilersnation’s associate editor, senior columnist, and The Nation Network’s news director. He also makes up one-half of the DFO DFS Report. He can be followed on Twitter, currently known as X, at @zjlaing, or reached by email at zach.laing@bettercollective.com.