The Edmonton Oilers host the Minnesota Wild tonight at Rogers Place, and here’s the simple truth: this is a casually quiet must-win game.

Not because everything falls apart if they don’t. But because beating good teams at home is what playoff teams do. And Minnesota is playing excellent hockey right now.

The Wild went 11-1-2 in November. They’re on an 11-game point streak. They just beat Colorado in a shootout Friday, ending the Avalanche’s 10-game winning streak. Kirill Kaprizov is scoring at a ridiculous pace. Filip Gustavsson and Jesper Wallstedt — who the Oilers could’ve drafted in 2021, but traded down — have both been outstanding in net. This is a team that figured something out and is rolling.

For the Oilers, tonight shows whether Saturday’s 4-0 win over Seattle was actually a step forward or just another good game sandwiched between mediocrity. Can they play with that same structure against a team that’s actually playing well?

Because the standings tell an uncomfortable story. The Oilers are 11-10-5. They’re sixth in the Pacific Division. They’re behind Seattle and San Jose. The Edmonton Oilers—with McDavid and Draisaitl—are below Seattle and San Jose in the standings.

That shouldn’t be happening. Not six months removed from the Stanley Cup Final.

Minnesota is 14-7-4. They’re scoring — Kaprizov and Matt Boldy are both producing. Their goalies are stopping pucks, with Wallstedt on a seven-game winning streak, posting a .938 save percentage and 1.93 goals against average in nine games this year. Their penalty kill is working again and they look like a team that knows what it’s trying to do every night, which is more than the Oilers can say.

This is the kind of game that answers questions. Beat Minnesota and you’ve got consecutive wins against division opponents. You’ve shown the Saturday performance wasn’t random. You’ve proven you can repeat what worked.

Lose, and Saturday just becomes another game we thought meant something but didn’t.

The schedule is about to get easier. Five of the next six games are at Rogers Place. If the Oilers can’t take advantage of a home-heavy stretch, they’re not going anywhere. Minnesota comes in on their second game in three nights after travelling. The Oilers have every reason to win this game.

What they need is to play the same way they played Saturday. Don’t overthink it. Don’t reinvent things. Just do what worked—structure, effort, contributions from everyone, solid goaltending.

Do that tonight, and they win. Do that over the next week, and suddenly they’re climbing back up to a respectable position in the standings. Do that consistently, and they’re not looking up at Seattle and San Jose anymore.

But it has to start somewhere. Tonight against Minnesota is as good a place as any.

The Oilers are 11-10-5 through 26 games. A quarter of the season is done. Time’s not running out yet, but it’s moving. Games like tonight are where teams either figure things out or keep spinning.

Minnesota is playing well. They’re confident. They just knocked off Colorado. They’re not going to hand the Oilers anything.

That’s exactly why tonight matters. The Oilers need to beat a team that’s actually good. At home. Without making it harder than it needs to be.

Savoie – McDavid – Hyman

Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Mangiapane

Henrique – RNH – Janmark

Frederic – Lazar – Clattenburg

Ekholm – Bouchard

Nurse – Regula

Kulak – Emberson

Skinner