Team Canada plays France this morning, and yeah, they’ve gotta win — obviously — they don’t just need to win. They need to win by a lot.

This isn’t about running up the score for fun or even national pride. This is about tournament seeding, and tournament seeding could be the difference between a manageable path to gold and a nightmare bracket. The top seed in this tournament will be determined by goal differential, and right now, that math matters more than anyone wants to admit.

France isn’t exactly the team that’s going to make this a problem for Canada. Let’s be realistic here. France is at the Olympics because they qualified, and that’s great for them, but they’re not built to hang with a Canadian roster. This should be a game where Canada controls the pace from start to finish and puts up goals in bunches.

But it’s not just about what Canada does today. It’s about what everyone else is doing, too.

Team USA won yesterday, remaining undefeated, nd they’re going to keep winning. That’s not being pessimistic about Canada’s chances — it’s just reality. The Americans are loaded, they’re playing well, and they’re racking up goals along the way. If Canada wants to stay ahead of them in the standings, they can’t afford to sleepwalk through games like this one.

This isn’t some distant what-if scenario. This is happening right now.

Canada has a +9 goal differential after two games, slightly above the USA’s +7. Canada takes on the French this morning, the USA takes on Germany this afternoon. Both teams should win, with the goal differential being the first tie-breaker for the No. 1 seed.

The problem with tournament hockey is that every goal matters, even in games that feel like they shouldn’t. You can’t treat France like a tune-up game where you coast to a comfortable win and call it a day. You need to press. You need to keep scoring. You need to make sure that when the round-robin is over and they’re calculating goal differential, Canada is sitting comfortably at the top.

Because here’s what happens if they don’t: Canada could end up with a tougher quarterfinal matchup, or worse, find themselves on the wrong side of a tiebreaker that didn’t need to be close. All because they decided to take their foot off the gas against a team they should’ve buried.

And that’s exactly what this needs to be. A statement. Not just to France, but to everyone else watching the standings.

Team USA is watching. Every team that might end up in a goal differential battle is paying attention to what Canada does today. If they win 4-1 and call it good enough, that sends one message. If they win 7-1 or 8-1 and make it clear they’re not messing around, that sends a completely different one.

This is more than just an insurance policy. This is about controlling your own destiny. Canada can’t control what the USA does. But they can absolutely control what happens against France, and they need to take full advantage of it.

So yeah, Canada’s gotta win today. But more importantly, they’ve gotta win big. Because when the round-robin ends and they’re tallying up goal differential, every goal they didn’t score today might be one they wish they had.

Celebrini – McDavid – MacKinnon

Marner – Crosby – Stone

Hagel – Suzuki – Wilson

Marchand – Horvat – Reinhart

Towes – Makar

Theodore – Parayko

Harley – Doughty

Sanaheim – Bennett

Binnington

Thompson

Catch Every Goal from the 2026 Milan Games! The 2026 Milan Games are almost here, and the world’s best men’s and women’s hockey players are ready to battle for gold! The Nation Network is bringing you every game, every jaw-dropping save, and all the drama with live reaction streams and full recaps. Don’t miss a moment of Olympic hockey action—men’s, women’s, and everything in between—on the Daily Faceoff YouTube channel. Subscribe now and stay on top of every play!