The field of 16 teams has been narrowed down to two, as the Florida Panthers and Edmonton Oilers prepare to battle for the NHL championship. If successful, the Oilers will become the first Canadian team to hoist Lord Stanley’s Cup since the Montreal Canadiens in 1993, but the Panthers are the current favourite to win it all, according to the betting market.
Stanley Cup Final Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Series Odds: +115
- Florida Panthers Series Odds: -135
- Total Games: 5.5 (over -185, under +150)
All odds courtesy of Bet365.
Florida Panthers (12-5 SU, 5-12 ATS, 7-10 O/U)
Florida is back to take care of some unfinished business and win its first Stanley Cup in franchise history. The Panthers lost in five games to the Vegas Golden Knights in the Stanley Cup Final last year, but they’re a better team in many ways. Last season, Florida squeaked into the playoffs as the eighth seed. This season, they won the Atlantic Division with 110 points. So far in the playoffs, the Panthers have defeated the Tampa Bay Lightning (in five games), Boston Bruins (in six games), and New York Rangers (in six games).
The Panthers are an elite defensive team, but the remnants of an offensive powerhouse still remain. Florida was the best offensive team in hockey two seasons ago when they won the Presidents’ Trophy, and while they have sacrificed some of their scoring prowess for the greater good of the team, this aspect of their game should not be taken lightly. Florida’s star power is spread out among the likes of Aleksander Barkov, Matthew Tkachuk, Sam Reinhart, and Carter Verhaeghe, but the team has a healthy amount of scoring depth, too.
Why the Panthers will win the Stanley Cup
The Oilers have held opponents to 25 shots on goal or fewer in 11 of their 18 games, but Florida has generated at least that many shots in all 17 games this postseason. Therefore, Florida will generate more shots and chances than any of Edmonton’s previous opponents. While the Oilers can win with Stuart Skinner, it’s difficult to favour Edmonton when better goaltenders, like Igor Shesterkin, have tried to stop the Panthers and failed.
Edmonton also has a penchant for sitting on leads, as they did in Game 6 of the Western Conference Final. The Oilers were outshot 34-10 by the Dallas Stars, tying a record for the lowest shot total in a playoff win in NHL history. The Panthers have the second-most comeback wins over the past three seasons, including six this postseason, while Edmonton has led in four of the six games they’ve lost in the playoffs.
Edmonton Oilers (12-6 SU, 6-12 ATS, 9-9 O/U)
Edmonton was a Stanley Cup favourite but started 2-9-1 and found itself tied for last place on November 9th. However, following a coaching change, the Oilers went on a 46-18-5 run, including a 16-game winning streak, and finished second in the Pacific Division. The Oilers eliminated the Los Angeles Kings in five games but had to overcome series deficits to defeat the Vancouver Canucks (in seven games) and the Dallas Stars (in six games) in the Western Conference Final.
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl lead the NHL playoffs with 31 and 28 points in 18 games, respectively, while Evan Bouchard, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Zach Hyman have all scored at a point-per-game pace or better. Additionally, Stuart Skinner has risen to the challenge, going 6-2 with a 1.88 goals-against average and a .920 save percentage since his benching in round two. Of course, the Oilers’ power play has also been great, going 19-51, but it’s the penalty kill that is garnering the most attention. Edmonton has killed off 28 penalties in a row and is 3-49 in the playoffs.
Why the Oilers will win the Stanley Cup
Sergei Bobrovsky has allowed two or fewer goals in 13 out of 17 games this postseason, but Edmonton has scored three or more goals in 14 out of 18 games. Eight of Florida’s last nine games have been decided by one goal, and eight of those games featured five goals or fewer. A goal here or a goal there, and the Panthers probably wouldn’t have made it this far, but the stars went quiet in Boston and New York. That’s not likely to be the case for Edmonton, though, as McDavid and Draisaitl are virtually impossible to shut down.
Florida hasn’t faced off against a possession monster like the Oilers yet in the playoffs, either, and they certainly haven’t had the task of shutting down McDavid and Draisaitl. The Panthers like to play on the edge, and as a result, they take a lot of penalties. Florida ranked second in minor penalties taken during the regular season, and that’s where they rank in the playoffs. Therefore, the Oilers’ power play should see more ice time than it did in the last round since Florida took 122 more penalties than Dallas did this season. Florida has been great on the penalty kill, but it’s a numbers game, and giving the Oilers’ power play doesn’t miss often.
PRESENTED BY BET365
Who will win the Stanley Cup?
Picking a side in this series is difficult, because we rarely see the two best teams make it this far. However, since 2006, the favourite is 14-4 in the Stanley Cup Final. Additionally, the team with home-ice advantage has gone 12-6 in the Stanley Cup Final. Therefore, it might be best to defer to oddsmakers and/or the standings when making a prediction.