The Oilers’ offensive struggles are real. They are closing in on 20% of the season and they are 30th in goals/game averaging an uninspiring 2.36 goals per game.
1. The Oilers forwards have scored a paltry 25 goals for an average of 1.78 per game. Only Anaheim with 21 goals in 12 games (1.75/game) is worse. The 12 active Oilers forwards have a combined cap hit of $47.125m, which is 12th most in the NHL. When Evander Kane returns, they will be top five in forward salaries. They are paid to score, and so far, they aren’t.
2. Only the Islanders and Ducks forwards have fewer assists than Edmonton’s 35. And Anaheim has two games in hand while NYI has one. The lack of offensive punch is crushing this team. I outlined earlier in an article how 8.9% of wins last season (117 of 1,312) came when the winning team scored two goals or fewer (excluding SO wins). It is beyond ridiculous how inept their offensive finish has been.
3. Last night they got a deflection goal from a D-man (Brett Kulak) in the slot off a shot from his defence partner (Darnell Nurse). It was Kulak’s first deflection goal of his career, he said. Great for him, but his goal combined with the lucky bounce off the end boards that gave Zach Hyman an open net, and the Oilers’ normal offence, once again, didn’t score a goal. I recognize luck plays some part in hockey, but how many deflection goals do forwards have this season? What about goals through screens? Or rebound goals? They need to work harder around the net.
4. I didn’t mind most of the Oilers’ game last night. It was close to playoff intensity. It was a tight game, but the Oilers made more key errors, and it cost them. Evan Bouchard was caught watching and flat-footed in the neutral zone that led to Jack Eichel’s breakaway goal. The winning goal was terrible on-ice awareness as the Oilers had four skaters in their defensive zone, while Vegas had two offensive players, yet Noah Hanafin found himself all alone and was able to walk right down the slot to score the game winner. When you aren’t scoring you can’t give up two easy goals. The tying goal was a combination of an unnecessary offensive zone penalty by Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Stuart Skinner would like to make a stop on Hanafin’s point shot. But goaltending wasn’t why they lost.
5. I keep reading people repeat the same thing. “Can’t win when your goalie is the second-best goalie on the ice.” Yet the same people say nothing about the Oilers having the second-best offence on the ice just as often, if not more. Here is a fun fact.
6. The Oilers are averaging 50:25 TOI of 5×5 play each game. That is the third most in the NHL behind Vegas at 51:32 and Winnipeg at 50:44. The Oilers rank 13th in GA/60 at while Winnipeg is eighth and Vegas is 25th. But offensively, Vegas is second in GF/60, Winnipeg is 10th and the Oilers are 25th. The majority of the game is played 5×5 and Edmonton’s offence is killing them much more than their goaltending is at 5×5.
7. Yes, the penalty kill is terrible, and goaltending is a major part of that. No debate. The PK is 32nd in the NHL, but the power play is 27th. The same offensive players struggling at 5×5 are doing the same on the man advantage. If you think Skinner is the main reason they are losing games, I think you are overlooking the obvious problem. Previous scoring success at 5×5 and on the power play doesn’t help the Oilers today. Until they start scoring consistently, they won’t win games. Their best players aren’t their best players often enough.
8. Evan Bouchard has had 55 shots blocked through 14 games. It is a staggering number. He only had 185 blocked all of last season (Quinn Hughes led the NHL with 242 shots attempts blocked). Offensive defenders will have the most shots blocked, but Bouchard, who is normally quite good at getting pucks on net, is struggling mightily to get his shot past opposing forwards. The NHL record for most shot attempts blocked in a season is 296 by Brent Burns (it has only been tracked since 2006). Bouchard is on pace for 322. I don’t expect him to remain at that pace, just like I don’t expect some players to remain at their current points/game paces. But 55 in 14 games is way too high. He’s starting to remind me of the original “ShinPad Assassin,” Andrej Sekera. But Sekera never had 55 in 14 games. Bouchard needs to find his offensive flair. Quickly.
9. The good news for the Oilers is that despite an inconsistent and lethargic start offensively, they aren’t in a very deep hole. They are one and two points back of the two wildcard teams, Calgary and St. Louis. They are six back of LA and Vegas for first in the division, but last season after 14 games the Oilers were 14 back of Vancouver and 16 points back of Vegas. At the 20-game mark last year they were 15 behind Vegas and 14 behind both LA and Vancouver.
I don’t expect the Oilers to win 16 games in a row again this season, and they can’t wait until December to get on a roll, but their sluggish start hasn’t put them in a massive hole — at least not yet. A victory in Vancouver on Saturday would be big. It would have them at worst two points behind the Canucks, or best case tied in points, although Vancouver would have two games in hand. The Oilers need to stay close to Vegas, Vancouver and LA until they find some consistency in their game.
10. Injuries are becoming an issue for the Oilers organization. Bakersfield has dressed 11 forwards the past few games due to injuries and both Drake Caggiula and Noah Philp were in the lineup last night. Matt Savoie got banged up and he is getting re-evaluated. Roby Jarventie played two games, and looked good, but he missed the past two games as he re-aggravated a previous injury. They had to sign Brayden Tracey to a 25-game PTO just to have 11 forwards the past two games.
Mattias Janmark is day-to-day for the Oilers and they only have 12 forwards. If he isn’t ready for Saturday, then they will have to recall Philp or Caggiula who are in BC as the Condors play Abbotsford Saturday and Sunday, but recalling one of them leaves Bakersfield shorthanded. I won’t be surprised if they look to sign another forward to a PTO.

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