Disappointing starts to the season have been an annual tradition in Oil Country over the past few years. The 2025-26 Edmonton Oilers are continuing the trend, sporting an underwhelming 6-6-4 record through 16 games.

Edmonton is no stranger to poor finishing, goaltending issues, and defensive mistakes in the first handful of games. Still, there are some disturbing trends this time that make me pause and wonder if this is the year they don’t turn it around. Is it simply another hangover, or are the Oilers really in trouble this time? Let’s compare this year’s slow start to years past.

Starting with possibly the only positive so far, the Oilers’ power play has been electric, and their penalty kill has improved, too. Last season, Edmonton was -9 on special teams through the first 16 games, but this season, they’re +5.

They’ve done a fantastic job moving the puck around down low on the man advantage. Their 13.6 Goals/60 at 5-on-4 ranks first in the NHL and is their best rate through 16 games since 2021-22.

The penalty kill got an overhaul this offseason, switching from a triangle + 1 formation to a diamond and the early returns are positive. Kris Knoblauch is also utilizing McDavid and Draisaitl on the kill, a new development that’s leading to more short-handed scoring opportunities.

It’s been a solid start for both the power play and penalty killing units. Unfortunately, we’ve seen this movie before, and it doesn’t have a happy ending. Dave Tippett’s Oilers started the season +13 on special teams through 16 games in 2021-22, but it wasn’t enough to carry them through the whole season. A good process at 5-on-5, in addition to special teams, is required to be a Cup contender.

Poor goaltending has been a staple of Edmonton’s early-season struggles over the last few years. They’ve sported a negative Goals Saved Above Expected (GSAx) and sub-900 SV% as a team through their first 16 games in each of the last four seasons.

The Oilers replaced their goalie coach, Dustin Schwartz, this summer and hired Peter Aubrey, hoping to improve the results from Skinner and Pickard, who had a rough 2024-25 as a tandem. While Skinner is off to a better start than his ice-cold performances in October of 2023 and 2024, he is still not at a level that the Oilers want him to be right now.

According to JFresh, the Oilers ranked 29th in the NHL in GSAx following their 9-1 blowout loss to the Colorado Avalanche on Saturday, and Stuart Skinner ranked 25th among starting goalies in GSAx/60 at even strength.

While Skinner’s numbers are underwhelming to start the season, Pickard’s have been worse. According to Evolving Hockey, he hasn’t had a Quality Start (positive GSAx) since his first appearance of the season, when the Oilers cruised to a dominant win over the Vancouver Canucks. Ideally, you want your goaltenders to give you a Quality Start at least 50% of the time. Pickard has done it in only 20% of his starts so far.

There aren’t a whole lot of options on the market for goalies, but you have to wonder how much longer they stick with the same duo if the results don’t improve fast. I would be stunned if we didn’t at minimum see an upgrade to the backup position by the trade deadline.

The single most concerning trend for the Oilers this season is that they’re playing their worst even-strength hockey since the Tippett era. In fact, the results have largely been worse.

In the past two years, poor finishing, shaky goaltending, and some sloppy mistakes in transition masked what was mostly solid underlying play early in the season. This time, the process itself has fallen apart — their shot quality, zone exits, and forecheck are all trending in the wrong direction.

So far, they’ve created 8.76 High-Danger Chances/60 at 5-on-5, which is about a 27% decrease from what they averaged last season — a staggering drop for a team that’s previously been one of the very best at attacking the slot.

The last time they generated a lower rate of High-Danger Chances in a season than 8.76 was 2014-15. A team coached by Dallas Eakins that hadn’t yet drafted Connor McDavid. Yikes.

People will point the finger at goaltending, and while they’re not wrong to do so, the offence is the bigger disappointment so far this season. If it continues to perform more like a decade of darkness team than a contender, prime Dominik Hasek wouldn’t save them.

Things look bleak right now for the Oilers, but how did it get this bad? And are their issues fixable? Looking at the personnel, they certainly still possess the talent to return to their winning ways, but it will take more than some regression to the mean in their shooting percentage or marginally better goaltending.

Edmonton’s breakouts have been an absolute mess this season. A team that once moved the puck quickly and efficiently to create rush offence has become too slow and telegraphed. Rather than move the puck up ice with urgency, they hang onto it for too long and let their opposition get into their neutral zone formation.

Combine that with their overreliance on stretch passes and less activation from the defencemen this season, and it’s no wonder why they’re turning pucks over and not generating anything. They aren’t moving up ice as a cohesive unit.

In the offensive zone, they’ve become perimeter-based. The Oilers have been the best team in the league at generating shots from the slot for three straight seasons, but this season, they’ve relied more on point shots, a strategy that has gone out of favour in the NHL for good reason.

Taking shots from distance against professional goaltenders is inefficient and a completely outdated way of creating offence, especially when there’s no traffic or pre-shot movement.

Some of these issues stem from execution, but the coaching staff must also share the blame. Could bringing back Paul Coffey as the defence coach help the D-core return to its former style of play?

Evan Bouchard’s egregious errors have been more abundant this season, Jake Walman’s pinches and shot selection have been all over the place, and Darnell Nurse is having by far the worst start to a season of his career. So far, he has the highest xGA/60 on the team despite getting the second-fewest D-zone starts of any defenseman. It’s a disaster right now from players who have proven they can be better than this.

We can’t say for sure if a change to the defence coach is what they need to get back on track, but this group has been remarkably worse this season, both in terms of execution and decision-making, so it’s worth considering.

Whether he makes any tweaks to his staff or not, Knoblauch has his work cut out for him. He has proved himself at the NHL level by getting this team to back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals, but the changes he’s made at 5-on-5 this season haven’t been working.

The Oilers need to get back to embracing what got them into contention in the first place, rather than transforming into a low-event, disconnected group. If they can rediscover that identity, they still have the talent to turn this season around. The clock is ticking.