Back in 2023, the Edmonton Oilers had lost in six games to the Vegas Golden Knights in the second round, the team that would go on to win the Stanley Cup that year.
While Edmonton’s series defeat that postseason could be ascribed to several factors, perhaps the most significant one was their complete inability to neutralize Jack Eichel, Vegas’s top centre. In those playoffs, the Oilers may have out-scored the Knights 8 to 7 at 5-on-5 with Eichel off-ice, but with Eichel on-ice, Edmonton was terribly out-scored 8 to 1. Ultimately, it was likely the deciding factor in an otherwise tight series.
This postseason, the Oilers had a rematch with the Golden Knights in the second round, and this time around, things were much different.
With a 1-0 OT victory last Wednesday night, the Oilers successfully defeated the Golden Knights in five games, and Eichel, despite scoring a career-high 94 points in the regular-season, did not score a single goal in this series. In fact, his line was out-scored 3 to 6 at 5-on-5, equating to an awful 33 percent goal share.
And a big reason for that was Leon Draisaitl.
At 5-on-5, Eichel had most commonly matched up against Draisaitl, particularly in Games 4 and 5 where head coach Kris Knoblauch separated McDavid and Draisaitl. Eichel played over half of his TOI against Draisaitl, and in those minutes, Eichel was out-scored 5 to 2 and out-chanced (in terms of high-danger chances) 15 to 8.
Draisaitl’s most impressive performance in this regard was Game 4 at Edmonton, where the Oilers had last change. Knoblauch hard-matched Draisaitl’s line with Vasily Podkolzin and Kasperi Kapanen against Eichel, and it was a huge success. Eichel’s line failed to score, combining for a mere one shot on net.
Offensively, Draisaitl was not at his absolute best in this series. Of course, he still managed to produce 6 points in 5 games, but for his lofty standards, it was not at the dominant level that many would typically expect out of him. Some have speculated if he’s played through an injury. But defensively, outside of some rough moments in Game 3, he was simply fantastic.
Overall in these playoffs, Draisaitl has been on-ice for 2.4 goals against per hour at 5-on-5, the second lowest (i.e. best) rate of his postseason career. And it’s certainly worth noting that those goals against rates been slightly brought down by Stuart Skinner’s struggles in the first two games of the first round; in terms of expected goals, Draisaitl’s 2.03 xGA/60 is the best rate of his career, and eighth overall among forwards with at least 100 minutes played in the 2025 playoffs.
This level of defensive play from Draisaitl is certainly not a new development in these playoffs. It began at the very beginning of the 2024-25 regular-season, and I wrote all about his significantly improved two-way performance back in January. Throughout this entire season, he has been consistently involved in his own zone, greatly improved his backchecking, and has transformed his former high-event style of play to a possession-oriented, cycle-dominant game. The sample is now undeniably large enough for this to be truly legitimate.
It’s also worth noting that Vasily Podkolzin has had a major impact here, Draisaitl’s most common winger this season. Historically, Draisaitl has often played best next to tenacious forecheckers, and that is precisely what Podkolzin is. Using his speed, size and physicality, Podkolzin has excelled at retrieving loose pucks in the offensive zone and forcing turnovers on opposition breakout attempts, causing the team to spend significantly more time in the o-zone and less time in their own end, which has in turn has led to fewer goals and chances against. Overall, the two have formed an excellent two-way duo, possessing a 59 percent goal differential and a 62 percent expected goal differential.
Moving forward in these playoffs, I believe there is significant potential in consistently using Draisaitl (and Podkolzin) in a shutdown role at 5-on-5. There’s a couple of reasons why.
Firstly, as discussed in detail above, Draisaitl has taken a huge step forward defensively and has formed strong chemistry next to Podkolzin. Per PuckIQ, that duo’s best defensive results have interestingly come against elite competition. The overwhelming body of statistical evidence strongly suggests that their results against Eichel in the second round weren’t just a small-sample fluke; they are fully capable of this role.
Another huge reason? Edmonton’s bottom-six.
Last season, during their playoff run all the way to Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Finals, the Oilers scored a total 12 goals without McDavid and Draisaitl on-ice at 5-on-5.
In these playoffs, they already have 16 after the first two rounds.
With the likes of Adam Henrique, Connor Brown, Corey Perry, and more, consistently chipping in, Edmonton’s depth has taken a massive step forward in this postseason. Considering the fact that this is not just some unsustainable stretch of games – the bottom-six is still at roughly ~14-15 expected goals – this puts a lot less pressure on Edmonton’s superstars to single-handedly drive the offence. And, it opens up an opportunity for Draisaitl to consistently embrace this sort of defensive role.
The Oilers will face the Dallas Stars in the upcoming Western Conference Finals, a team that has had some depth struggles. Mikko Rantanen has driven the majority of their offence at 5-on-5, as with Rantanen on-ice, the Stars have out-scored opponents at an excellent rate of 11 to 4. However, without Rantanen, the Stars have been out-scored 9 to 18, equating a brutal 33 percent goal differential.
This could be a huge opportunity for the Oilers’ coaching staff here. If Draisaitl’s line can be matched against Rantanen’s line in a similar fashion to the Eichel line, and if Draisaitl succeeds in shutting him down, it could completely neutralize the Stars’ overall offence.
Of course, there would be a trade-off, as Draisaitl’s 5-on-5 production would likely see a notable dip in this role. But again, the rise of Edmonton’s bottom-six alleviates a lot of the offensive pressure on Draisaitl, and combined with the fact that this strategy opens up more space for McDavid’s line to do offensive damage against Dallas’ other lines, it could be extremely likely for the Oilers to win the overall 5-on-5 battle by a good margin. And not to mention, this is clearly a role that Draisaitl himself is fully comfortable with.
“Because I want to win, and I know sometimes that’s what it takes to win,” said Draisaitl on why he’s willing to play in a more defensive shutdown role.
“I can put my own stats on the back burner for a couple of months if that means that we’re going to be the last team standing.”
*All stats via Natural Stat Trick unless stated otherwise
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