Thursday’s win against Montreal felt like watching two different hockey teams wearing the same jerseys. For forty-ish minutes, the Oilers looked flat, careless, and mostly disconnected. The passing was off, the mistakes piled up, and it felt like we were about to sit through another one of those nights where self-inflicted wounds ruined the result. Then, thanks to some timely goals on the power play, the switch flipped in a big way. The boys woke up, the offence exploded, and somehow we walked out of that mess with a 6–5 comeback win that felt equal parts relief and disbelief.

Now the Oilers are in Seattle, where the ask is simple: keep the good vibes rolling and prove they don’t need comeback heroics to win hockey games. Through the first eight contests, the Oilers sit at 4-3-1, and that record feels exactly like how they’ve looked on the ice — decent, often messy, flashes of brilliance, but nowhere close to a finished product. They’ve scored 24 goals and allowed 25, which is a pretty clear indication that there are cracks in the foundation that need to be fixed. The power play (28.0%) is doing its part, the penalty kill (81%) has been fine, and they’re averaging three goals for and against per night, but we all know there’s more there. Not dominant, not awful, but nowhere near the potential we know they can hit.

What needs to happen next is for the offence to get themselves going. There are so many good players on this roster, but too many of those same names are struggling to find the back of the net with any consistency or even at all. The bright side is that the top six is starting to click with the big boys heating up a little more, but we’ll need more than the usual suspects contributing with regularity. Guys like Andrew Mangiapane (3G), Adam Henrique (2G), Jake Walman (1G, 2A), Noah Philp (2G), and David Tomasek (1G, 1A) have chipped in, but we still need a whole lot more from the bottom six. If or when that next wave of goals hits, this team could start looking like the juggernaut we’ve been waiting for.

That said, Seattle is not going to make this easy. The Kraken are 4-2-2, allowing 2.75 goals per game, and are backstopped by one of the league’s best team save percentages at even strength with a sparkling .933. Regardless of where they end up when the season is done, Seattle is playing well right now, and beating them won’t be a layup. Put another way, the Oilers need to figure out how to score at 5v5. Lane Lambert has Seattle playing a structured, frustrating game that limits time and space, which is not exactly ideal for a team that’s struggle with puck management. If they want to win, the boys need to bring energy and pace early before Seattle has the chance to drag things into the mud. The Kraken are built to capitalize on mistakes, and the Oilers can’t keep giving the puck up like they’re running gift shop.

At five-on-five, the numbers tell a story of two teams still figuring it out. The Oilers are carrying a 47.23% expected goals share, while the Kraken sit at 45.99%, which tells you neither side is exactly lighting it up at even strength. That suggests the difference tonight will likely come down to execution on special teams and whichever side makes the fewest errors. If the Oilers want to build off their last two wins, they’ll need to take steps forward with a more complete outing because they can’t expect to win regularly being as sloppy as they’ve been. The effort we saw in the third period against Montreal needs to become the standard, not the exception. You can’t keep waiting until you’re down a couple of goals before deciding to flip the switch. Start on time, play simple, and get the job done.

Get the win, keep the streak alive, and head into Vancouver tomorrow feeling like the tide is finally starting to turn.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

THE NUMBERS

	OILERS	KRAKEN
RECORD	4-3-1	4-2-2
WIN/LOSS STREAK	W2	W1
GOALS FOR	24	26
GOALS AGAINST	25	25
POWER PLAY%	28.0	21.7
PENALTY KILL%	81.0	71.4
GOALS FOR/GAME	3.00	2.75
GOALS AGAINST/GAME	3.00	2.75
AVG. SHOTS/FOR	28.6	25.8
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST	23.5	28.9
TEAM SAVE%	.901	.933
CORSI FOR%	47.87	44.92
PDO	0.976	1.017
TEAM SHOOTING%	7.51	8.39
EXPECTED GOALS FOR%	47.23	45.99

Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)

The Oilers went 3-1-0 against the Seattle Kraken last season, and it would be pretty sweet if they could find a way to own a Pacific Division rival like that again in 2025-26. Stretch the view out a little bit, the Oilers have won their nine of their last 10 games against Seattle.
The Kraken are returning home after spending the last five games on the road but are still 2-0-0 on home ice. Historically, the Kraken are 2-6-0 vs. Edmonton in Seattle and 3-11-1 overall vs. the Oilers.
Leon Draisaitl has recorded multi-point games in nine of 12 career games versus the Kraken. His career 2.17 points-per-game against Seattle is his highest points-per-game vs. any team in his career. Meanwhile, Connor McDavid has recorded a point in 11 of his 13 career games played versus Seattle. (8G, 11A).
Stuart Skinner has won his last six starts against Seattle.
Jaden Schwartz enters tonight’s game with goals in back-to-back games for a total of four points (3G, 1A).
Standings watching already? The Oilers are sitting in fourth in the Pacific Division behind Vegas, Seattle, and Anaheim. We’ll be doing banner watch all season, people.

LINEUPS…

Oilers

Howard – McDavid – Mangiapane
Savoie – Draisaitl – Podkolzin
Henrique – Nugent-Hopkins – Roslovic
Tomasek – Philp – Frederic

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Walman
Kulak – Emberson

Skinner

After Thursday’s game, Kris Knoblauch said that he plans to keep the lines that finished the game (above) as the ones he’ll use tonight in Seattle. He confirmed after morning skate that he would be running these lines back against Seattle. Colour me skeptical. We all saw the graphic where the Oilers have used 21 different line combos through the first eight games, and I have my doubts he’ll be able to resist the urge to tinker for more than a shift or two.

Kraken

Catton – Beniers – Eberle
Marchment -Stephenson – Tolvanen
Schwartz – Wright – Nyman
Kartye – Meyers – Winterton

Dunn -Larsson
Mahura – Oleksiak
Lindgren – Fleury

Daccord

The Seattle Kraken’s offence has been led early by Jaden Schwartz, who sits atop the team with eight points through eight games. Jordan Eberle and Shane Wright have both chipped in five points apiece, while Vince Dunn continues to be an anchor on the blue line with five points of his own. Meanwhile, Jared McCann and Mason Marchment each have four points, rounding out a balanced forward group that’s getting contributions from multiple lines rather than relying on any specific players. They have guys chipping in all over the lineup, and the Oilers will need to find a way to deal with that.

TONIGHT…

GDB Evan Bouchard Edmonton Oilers photoshop by Tom Kostiuk

Game Day Prediction: Thursday’s comeback win over Montreal gave the Oilers confidence, and they use it to rally from another two-goal deficit en route to a 5-3 win.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: The Oilers’ power play is starting to heat up, and Leon Draisaitl keeps the train rolling with a big PP goal.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Outside of the predicted power play goal by Draisaitl, the other four will be scored by defencemen.

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