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2015-16 Oilers: The Taylor Hall Line
Apr 30, 2016, 09:00 EDTUpdated:
Taylor Hall entered the year as the Edmonton Oilers’ top line left wing, the anchor point for the club’s best forward unit. He remains at the top of the team’s depth chart, but by the end of the year his line had fallen into a secondary role, victims both of a late-season slump and of the irresistible force that is Connor McDavid.
How did the various iterations of the line perform over the course of the year?
The Chart
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Using Puckalytics SuperWOWY function, I was able to generate numbers for all the various line combinations in which Hall spent more than one half-hour. I’ve shown the forward combinations for each line on the far left, followed by 5-on-5 minutes together, goals and Corsi plus/minus as a unit, and finally on the far right shifts starting in the offensive and defensive zones.
For the sake of reference, I’ve also included generic first, second, third and fourth lines. Again using Puckalytics, I ranked the top 360 forwards in the league by ice-time. The averages above are the unweighted totals for the NHL’s 90 most-used forwards (three per team), followed by the next 90 and so on. These are back-of-envelope calculations but they do give us a point of comparison.
Performance
At the top of the list we find two short-lived and somewhat surprising units, featuring Hall, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and either Matt Hendricks or Rob Klinkhammer. I publicly snickered when Hendricks was promoted over other options, but I have to admit that in the brief stint before he got hurt this line was actually really effective. Klinkhammer wasn’t as good as a replacement, particularly once we take a peek at zonestarts, but having a grinder next to the Hall/Nugent-Hopkins duo doesn’t seem to have been a terrible idea at all. Scrolling down a little bit, this line was also pretty decent with Patrick Maroon in the Hendricks/Klinkhammer role.
The most common version of the Hall line saw him playing with Leon Draisaitl and Teddy Purcell, and the evidence suggests it actually worked pretty well. The goal totals compare almost perfectly with our generic first line and the shot metrics are brilliant. The line was cooling before Purcell left, but I wonder a little if it wouldn’t have rebounded had he not been traded. The unit also worked with Nugent-Hopkins at centre in place of Draisaitl.
It’s often a point of debate as to what the problem in Edmonton is, and this look is suggestive that it isn’t the Hall line. The most common version of the unit worked pretty well with Purcell at right wing, and subbing in the right kind of grinder also worked over short spans of time.
Let’s quickly zip through the other combinations:
- Yakupov actually worked okay by the shot metrics (which I put more weight on over these short snippets of time); seeing that unit a little longer would have been nice.
- Draisaitl at right wing was spectacularly effective by goals, as most fans will remember, but the shot numbers were fairly bland. That might have changed with time to develop chemistry, but it’s worth keeping in mind when thinking of how good this unit looked.
- At first glance, Iiro Pakarinen was a meh fit, but this line wasn’t together long and was used quite a bit in the defensive zone. If we scroll down to the bottom we find he was a worse fit with Nugent-Hopkins than with Draisaitl; there’s nothing here that suggests he should be considered for a regular role on this line, though of course we’re talking about a small sample of time.
- Other and Other is the combined totals of all those sub-30 minute trios. The zone starts surprised me, but other than that I’d just say there’s probably a good reason these lines didn’t last.
- Jordan Eberle and Zach Kassian are the last two right wings we consider. Both fit surprisingly poorly on this line. Eberle’s a very skilled player so I look at the zone starts and the relatively small amount of time this line spent together and tend to think it’s probably an aberration. Kassian fits the same general mold as Hendricks and Maroon but was far less successful, but then Kassian had a lousy half-season with the Oilers in general. This may be worth revisiting depending on what he looks like out of training camp.
Takeaways
The key point for me here is that Hall looks capable of anchoring a No. 1 even-strength line. We haven’t got to McDavid yet but I don’t think I’m giving too much away when I say that he can do it, too. My view is that these two players should be the lynchpins of Edmonton’s offence in the years ahead, each one on a separate line to create matchup problems for the opposition, ala Jonathan Toews and Patrick Kane in Chicago.
As for specific linemates, I think either Draisaitl or Nugent-Hopkins could fill the centre role. The obvious route is to load up the line, with Draisaitl on the right wing, and I imagine we’ll see that fairly often next season. However, it’s probably a good idea to have a specific right wing available for those games where someone is hurt or the coach wants to add some oomph to his third line.
Purcell was a pretty good fit this year, and should be considered in free agency this summer if the price is right. If we’re looking at ex-Oilers, David Perron is kind of a fun if unrealistic option. Other names in free agency, depending on interest and price-point might include Troy Brouwer, P-A Parenteau, Chris Stewart, Lee Stempniak, Dale Weise, Radim Vrbata and possibly even Brad Boyes. There are a bunch of complementary right wings heading to free agency this year, and sitting back and picking one (or more!) up on the cheap strikes me as the right approach for the Oilers.
The most important point here is that this is a part of the team that doesn’t need major changes for Edmonton to compete for a playoff spot. Hall/Draisaitl or Hall/Nugent-Hopkins can reasonably be regarded as the foundation of a competent first line or a brilliant second unit.
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