NHL Betting Preview (April 6th): Flames vs. Oilers Odds

Photo credit:© Perry Nelson-USA TODAY Sports

3 months ago

The Oilers won back a lot of goodwill on Friday by rolling over the Avalanche, and will look to continue that success by defeating the Flames on Saturday. This article breaks down The Battle of Alberta from a betting perspective.

Flames vs. Oilers Odds

Calgary Flames Moneyline Odds: +145
Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: -175
Puck Line Odds: Oilers +1.5 (+130), Flames -1.5 (-165)
Game Total: 6.5 goals (over -120, under +100)

All odds courtesy of Betway.

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Last Matchup

Calgary and Edmonton met on February 24th at Rogers Place, a couple of weeks before the trade deadline. The Oilers had hosted the Minnesota Wild the night prior and it showed, as the Flames jumped out to an early 3-0 lead and led 5-2 by the end of the second period. The long shot of pulling goaltender Stuart Skinner with over seven minutes left on the clock in regulation didn’t pay off for the Oilers, either, as the Flames made it 6-2 and went on to win the game 6-3. Dan Vladar stopped 32 of the 35 shots he faced.

Check out Daily Faceoff to get updates regarding the line combinations and goaltenders for Saturday’s matchup.

Handicapping the Flames (34-41 SU, 35-40 ATS, 44-29 O/U)

The Flames were destined to tumble down the standings after parting ways with both Noah Hanifin and Chris Tanev, and they have, going 3-10 straight up since the trade deadline. Calgary ranks 25th in even-strength expected goals percentage since the trade deadline, per Evolving Hockey, and the Flames scoring rates have resembled that of a lottery team, with only four teams having a worse goal differential. Of course, Jacob Markstrom has only made five appearances since the team opted not to deal him at the deadline, and that has contributed to the team’s struggles.

Calgary has just two wins in six meetings against the Oilers since the start of the 2022-23 regular season and they have just one win in their last eight games. The Flames have a rest advantage, as they did not play on Friday, and they’ve been solid as a home underdog this season, going 9-7 straight up, but most of their wins came before they dismantled their blueline a month ago. They have upset Los Angeles and Vegas recently, though, and it wouldn’t be wise to dismiss their chances entirely. This is hockey, after all, and winning games in the Battle of Alberta is important.

Handicapping the Oilers (49-29 SU, 35-40 ATS, 33-39 O/U)

Edmonton needed to make a statement by defeating the Avalanche on Friday, but they did more than that. Colorado had outclassed Edmonton back on March 16th in a 3-2 overtime win at Rogers Place, but this time, the Oilers dominated the matchup. Of course, this probably had something to do with the fact that the Avalanche had played in Minnesota the night before, but Edmonton owned almost 70 percent of the expected goals and over 65 percent of the shots at even strength.

Calgary has been playing high-event games since the trade deadline, so there should be a lot of shot attempts in this matchup. It’s unlikely that Edmonton will be able to shut the Flames down entirely due to scheduling, but this is the worst version of the Calgary Flames that Edmonton will have faced. The Oilers will have three days off before their next game on April 10th, so it’ll be interesting to find out who the coaching staff will start in goal on Saturday. Stuart Skinner only saw 23 shots in the game and he had been sitting since April 1st. However, the betting market is expecting Calvin Pickard to start, and rightfully so.

PRESENTED BY BETWAY

Team Betting Trends

Edmonton is 4-6 in its last 10 games away from Rogers Place and betting the Oilers to win as a favourite on the road has not been a profitable strategy. Edmonton has gone 17-13 as road favourites, but a bettor would be down $398 if they had bet on them to win each of those games.
Calgary is 3-7 straight up in its last 10 games as the underdog, though, and they are also 3-7 against the puck line. That means the Flames have lost three of their last 10 games by a margin of two or more goals.
The Flames are 6-3-1 to the over in their last 10 games as the underdog, and 8-2 to the over in their last 10 home games. Edmonton is 6-4 to the over in its last 10 games.

Player Prop Betting Trends

Connor McDavid scored two goals on nine shots against the Avalanche on Friday and he now has six goals and 16 assists in his last 10 games. McDavid has five goals and 11 assists in his last 10 games against the Flames. He is listed at +120 to score a goal on Saturday.
Mattias Ekholm stayed hot with a goal and an assist on Friday. He now has five goals and 10 assists in his last 10 games. Ekholm is listed at +450 to score a goal.
MacKenzie Weegar has been hot for the Flames, with four goals and eight assists in 13 games since the trade deadline. He is listed at -105 to score a point and +325 to score a goal.
Aside from Weegar, Nazem Kadri is the only other member of the Flames to score at a point-per game pace since the deadline. He’s got two goals and nine assists during that 13-game stretch. Kadri is listed at +175 to score a goal and -163 to score a point.

Best Bets for Oilersnation

Games featuring the Flames have gone over the total to the tune of 61.5 percent since the trade deadline and that makes sense given the high-event brand of hockey that they’ve been playing. Calgary is 44-29 to the over this season. Edmonton should be able to exploit Calgary’s defensive deficiencies, but the Oilers have holes of their own. Plus, schedule makers have put them in a tough spot.

Bet over 6.5 goals at -120 odds.