NHL Betting Preview (May 25): Oilers vs. Stars Game 2 Odds
2 months ago
Edmonton will look to take a 2-0 series lead over the Dallas Stars on Saturday in Game 2 of the Western Conference Final. The Oilers won Game 1 by a score of 3-2 in double overtime. This article breaks down the odds and trends that make this matchup interesting, from a betting perspective.
Oilers vs. Stars Game 1 Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline Odds: +120
- Dallas Stars Moneyline Odds: -140
- Puck Line Odds: Oilers +1.5 (-225), Stars -1.5 (+185)
- Game Total: 5.5 goals (over -125, under +105)
All odds courtesy of Bet365.
Oilers vs. Stars Series Odds
The Oilers entered the Western Conference Final as underdogs, but they are now listed as -190 series favourites following their win in Game 1. As a result, Edmonton (+185) now has the best odds of winning the Stanley Cup, while superstars Connor McDavid (+425) and Leon Draisaitl (+550) have the best odds of winning the Conn Smythe Trophy as the most valuable player in the NHL playoffs.
Handicapping the Oilers (58-37 SU, 42-53 ATS, 42-49 O/U)
Goaltender Stuart Skinner set the tone early in Game 1 with two huge saves in the opening minutes when Evgenii Dadonov was sprung on a breakaway, and Jamie Benn followed up with an attempt on a rebound. Skinner looked calm, even when the things around him got chaotic, and his play allowed Edmonton to settle down. In fact, one save even kicked off the play that led to Zach Hyman’s goal. The 25-year-old goaltender finished the game with a .939 save percentage and saved the team approximately two goals above expected, according to Evolving Hockey.
The Oilers’ penalty kill also deserves a lot of credit, though. Dallas had a 5-1 edge in power play opportunities in Game 1 but failed to score with the man advantage. That includes the double minor that was assessed to McDavid right off the opening faceoff in the first overtime period. Edmonton’s penalty kill has now successfully killed 92.5 percent of the penalties they’ve been assessed in the playoffs so far, and they’ve killed off their last six double minors dating back to the regular season. In total, Edmonton’s opponents have only converted on three of their 40 power play opportunities this postseason.
Edmonton’s play at 5-on-5 also stood out in Game 1, as the Oilers owned roughly 60 percent of the shot attempts and 56 percent of expected goals, per Evolving Hockey. If Edmonton can keep it up, and Skinner continues to perform at or near the level he has been at over the last three games, the Oiler’ Stanley Cup chances will start to look a lot more realistic.
Handicapping the Stars (60-36 SU, 41-55 ATS, 47-48 O/U)
This should be a long series, and as a result, bettors should be expecting a big push back from the Stars in Game 2. Especially if three-time 30-goal scorer Roope Hintz is back in the lineup. Hintz has been out of the lineup since he was injured in Game 4 of the second round, but head coach Pete DeBoer called him a possibility for Game 2 against Edmonton. Hintz is coming off his third 30-goal season in a row. He finished second on the Stars in goals and tied for third in points. In 11 games this postseason, Hintz has just two goals and four assists, but the 27-year-old scored 10 goals and had 24 points in 19 playoff games last postseason.
Regardless, the Stars will have to do a better job on both sides of the puck. Dallas generated just 10 high danger shot attempts during 5-on-5 play, compared to 16 for the Oilers in Game 1, according to Natural Stat Trick. Also, the team has owned just 48 percent of the 5-on-5 shot attempts since the start of the second round and they’ve barely been breaking even in terms of expected goals, based on Evolving Hockey’s model. Jake Oettinger was solid in Game 1, posting a .921 save percentage on 38 shots faced, but he might have to be even better in Game 2 for the Stars to even up the series.
Dallas is now 0-7 in Game 1s dating back to the 2022 NHL playoffs, but the Stars have shown that they know a thing or two about winning. The team has 38 wins since January 1st, which is second only to – you guessed it – the Edmonton Oilers, who have racked up 40 wins since the start of the New Year. However, Dallas led Edmonton for 180:10 out of a possible 180:30 during their season series and they have won four of their last five series after giving up the first game.
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Player Prop Betting Trends
- Leon Draisaitl snapped a three-game goalless drought in Game 1 when he opened the scoring, but he’s produced a point in every game so far this postseason. In fact, Draisaitl has posted a point in 22 out of his last 25 playoff games dating back to the start of the 2023 NHL playoffs.
- Zach Hyman has goals in three consecutive games, bringing him to 12 this postseason. The next-best-player is Leon Draisaitl, who has nine goals. Hyman is listed at +125 to score a goal on Saturday, which are the best odds of any player on either team.
- Wyatt Johnston leads the Stars with seven goals in 14 games, but he’s gone without a goal in five of the last six games. Johnston did record two three goals and an assist in the second round versus the Stars, but he hasn’t registered a point in three games, either. Johnston registered two shots on goal on seven attempts in just over 26 minutes of ice time in Game 1.
Best Bets for Oilersnation
After comparing the odds at dozens of sportsbooks, it’s clear that Bet365 is offering the best odds (+150) on Leon Draisaitl scoring a goal. It would be great if Edmonton’s depth scoring showed up in Game 2, but the Oilers rely on No. 29 to produce, and produce he has. Draisaitl has scored at least one goal in seven out of 13 playoff games this postseason, and if a bettor had made a wager on Draisaitl to score in each game, that bettor would have seen more than a 22 percent return on investment, or 3.55 units of profit, assuming the bettor bet the same amount each time. Bet on Draisaitl to light the lamp at +150 odds.
GAME DAY ARTICLE PRESENTED BY BET365
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