Edmonton’s three-game road trip continues with a stop in Montreal on Monday as the Oilers face the Canadiens in the first half of a back-to-back. Naturally, the Oilers are a big moneyline favorite heading into this game.
Oilers vs. Canadiens Odds
- Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -275
- Montreal Canadiens Moneyline: +220
- Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (-110), Canadiens +1.5 (-110)
- Game Total: 6.5 (Over -110, Under -110)
Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
Handicapping the Oilers (9-9 SU, 5-13 ATS, 6-11-1 O/U)
The effort was evident on Saturday, as it has been in most games, but it wasn’t enough. Despite outshooting the Maple Leafs 30-22, winning the special teams battle, and generating more expected goals, the Oilers fell short in overtime. Adding to their woes, defenseman Darnell Nurse was blindsided by Ryan Reaves early in the second period, leaving him bloodied and dazed. Nurse had to be helped off the ice, leading the Oilers to recall defenseman Josh Brown from Bakersfield.
Edmonton has yet to win three consecutive games this season, repeatedly faltering just as they start to climb the Pacific Division standings. Now sitting at .500 through 18 games, it’s crucial for the Oilers to secure victories in winnable matchups like this one. With Monday kicking off a back-to-back, culminating in a road game against Ottawa on Tuesday, head coach Kris Knoblauch faces an important decision on the starting goaltender. Neither has performed well this season, but Calvin Pickard has been the steadier option recently.
Since Oct. 28, Stuart Skinner (5-5-2) ranks last in goals saved above expected, per Evolving Hockey, while Pickard (4-2) has been closer to league average. Skinner’s struggles continued Saturday, allowing over a full goal more than expected for the third straight game. Starting Skinner against the Canadiens, who rank last in shots per 60 minutes, instead of the Senators, who rank third, might help him regain confidence. However, it may be wiser for him to watch from the bench Monday, giving the Oilers a better chance to regain momentum.
Handicapping the Canadiens (6-12 SU, 8-10 ATS, 10-8 O/U)
Montreal recently snapped a six-game losing streak, and they’ve got wins in two of their last three, but outside of their 1-0 win over the Maple Leafs on opening night, the Canadiens have not defeated a playoff team and it’s not hard to see why.
No team has allowed more goals per 60 minutes (3.87) as Montreal ranks among the bottom-five teams in practically every defensive metric not related to the penalty kill, where they rank 13th. Montreal is currently ranked 29th in shot attempts against and 30th in expected goals against at even strength.
The Canadiens are more competent on offense than they are on defense, though. Montreal grades out as the 10th-best team on the power play, with a 20.22 percent success rate. However, while Montreal does rank 18th in goals per 60 minutes, most of their five-on-five goals have come when they’ve been trailing, according to Natural Stat Trick. That said, like the Oilers, the Canadiens are top heavy, with three skaters (Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki, and Brendan Gallagher) providing most of the scoring.
This season, the Canadiens have scored just 1.875 goals per game against teams that made the playoffs last season, and they’ve scored two or fewer goals in five out of nine home games. On the flip side, Montreal has allowed four or more goals (4.25 on average) in six out of the eight games they’ve played against playoff teams.
Edmonton is 15-8-2 against Montreal in the Connor McDavid era, but they’ve won seven of the last 10 meetings. The two teams have split the season series in each of the last two seasons, but the Oilers are 11-2 at the Bell Centre since 2015-16. The Canadiens will have four days off before continuing their four-game homestand on Saturday.
Best Bet for Oilers vs. Canadiens
Connor McDavid Anytime Goal (+105) at Sports Interaction
McDavid has faced off against the Canadiens more than any other Eastern Conference team. In 25 games against Montreal, McDavid has nine goals and 32 points. However, the Oilers’ captain has registered six goals and 17 points in his last 10 games against the Canadiens and six of those were multi-point games.
McDavid has 24 shots on goal in his last four games, which almost matches the number of shots (32) he had in his first 11 games, and he’s scored in all four of those games. Heading into Monday’s game, his odds of scoring a goal are sitting at +105. Those odds suggest he will fail to score more often than not in this game, but everything else points to him succeeding more often than not.
Mattias Ekholm Over 2.5 Shots On Goal (-105) at Sports Interaction
With Darnell Nurse presumably out, Knoblauch will likely have to rely on Evan Bouchard and Mattias Ekholm even more than he usually does. Ekholm played more than 25 minutes on Saturday for just the fourth time this season, and registered more than three shots in a road game for just the second time. However, he’s registered three-plus shots in eight games this season, mostly in games where the Oilers are big favorites. Only four teams have allowed more shot attempts per 60 minutes than Montreal has this season, which makes this a good matchup for Ekholm.