Edmonton aims to bounce back in Ottawa after a shutout loss to the Canadiens, but the odds have shifted toward the Senators. 

Oilers vs. Senators Odds

  • Edmonton Oilers Moneyline: -120
  • Ottawa Senators Moneyline: +100
  • Puck Line: Oilers -1.5 (+185), Senators +1.5 (-225)
  • Game Total: 6.5 (Over -105, Under -115)
Game odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.

Handicapping the Oilers (9-10 SU, 5-14 ATS, 6-12-1 O/U)

Edmonton was shut out just three times over 82 games last season, but this year they’ve already been blanked three times in only 18 games. Monday’s loss was particularly troubling—not only is Montreal a middling offensive team, but they also rank as one of the NHL’s worst defensively, allowing more goals per 60 minutes than any other club. It’s no surprise, then, that bettors appear to favor the Senators. Ottawa opened at +120 on the moneyline but has since shortened to +100 at many sportsbooks.
To be fair, the Oilers were short-handed again on Monday, playing with 11 forwards and seven defensemen. They were without Viktor Arvidsson for a third straight game, and Josh Brown replaced the injured Darnell Nurse. However, if these absences are enough to derail the team, there’s real cause for concern. Edmonton’s lack of secondary scoring is glaring, and even their top scorers are underperforming. Beyond Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl, no other player is on pace for 20 goals or 50 points.
Something has to change eventually, but the outlook isn’t encouraging. One offseason acquisition is injured, while the other is struggling to stay in the lineup. Edmonton’s forward group looks thin, and the numbers back that up. According to Evolving Hockey, the Oilers generated 3.35 expected goals on 65 shot attempts per 60 minutes at five-on-five last season. This year, despite maintaining the same shot volume, their expected goals have dropped to 2.88 per 60 minutes.
Compounding these issues is the shaky play of Stuart Skinner. The Oilers are 5-5-2 with Skinner in goal this season, but among the 28 goaltenders who have faced at least 400 unblocked shot attempts, Skinner ranks 27th in save percentage and 26th in goals saved above expected, per Evolving Hockey. Edmonton faces far more challenges now than they did at this point last season. The Oilers opened as a -140 moneyline favorite, but bettors weren’t interested and they’re now listed at -120 odds.

Handicapping the Senators (8-9 SU, 9-8 ATS, 6-9-2 O/U)

The Senators are also reeling from a shutout loss, falling 4-0 in Carolina on Saturday. That came just two days after they squandered a 4-2 third-period lead in a 5-4 overtime loss to the Flyers. Since starting the season 4-2, Ottawa has gone 4-7 straight up.
Much of their recent struggles can be attributed to a tough schedule, with eight of their last 12 games played on the road. The Senators have won just 33% of their road games since 2017-18, but their home performance has been much stronger. Since 2022-23, Ottawa has won 58.5% of its home games, including two of three against Edmonton. After losing all nine meetings with the Oilers during the 2020-21 season, the Senators have gone 3-3 against them since.
Ottawa’s underlying metrics are also encouraging. The Senators rank third in expected goals percentage and fifth in shot attempt percentage at five-on-five. Only two teams have allowed fewer expected goals per 60 minutes, and while their offense isn’t the most efficient, they excel at maintaining possession and generating shots. Their power play has been particularly effective, converting at 27.6% (16-for-58), ranking sixth in the league. Captain Brady Tkachuk has scored four of his team-leading nine goals on the man advantage.
However, their penalty kill remains mediocre, and they’re still a below-average team when it comes to keeping pucks out of their own net. That could improve, though, given their solid defensive play overall. Linus Ullmark, while underperforming this season, has been one of the league’s top goaltenders over the past three years. If he regains his form, Ottawa could fix their defensive woes and start turning losses into wins.

Best Bet for Oilers vs. Senators

3-Way Result: Regulation Time Tie (+340) at Sports Interaction

Ottawa and Edmonton are a combined 21-12-3 to the under this season, but both rank among the top five in shot attempts per 60 minutes. This suggests a high-event, back-and-forth matchup. Given the near coin-flip odds for this game, taking a +340 wager on the game going to overtime is an intriguing option.
Only one of the last 10 meetings between these teams has gone to overtime, but that’s largely because Edmonton has dominated, going 7-3 in those games and covering the puck line every time. However, this season tells a different story. The current Oilers roster has covered the puck line just five times, and have gone to overtime three times in their last four games. Meanwhile, Ottawa has gone to overtime twice in their last four games.