We are just two weeks removed from the heartbreak of the Oilers’ Game 7 loss in Florida, and despite the season coming to a painful end less than a month ago, a strong sense of optimism still exists around the fan base.
Obviously, Jeff Jackson’s aggressiveness is a massive reason why excitement levels have stayed high. This isn’t going to be some repeat of the 2006-07 season when a handful of key players depart and the team takes a massive step back.
That obviously was never going to happen with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl around, but still, there are plenty of examples from the salary cap era where teams go on deep runs and have to run back a weaker roster because of cap constraints.
There was understandably some fear that the Oilers wouldn’t be able to run back a roster of similar quality to the one that lost to the Florida Panthers, never mind one that’s deeper and stronger. But with the additions of Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson and key returning pieces like Adam Henrique, it’s easy to see how the Oilers could be one of the best teams in the league next season.
Winning the Pacific Division and winning the Western Conference in the regular season feel like very realistic expectations for this group. Looking around the rest of the Western Conference, it’s easy to see how the Oilers stand out amongst their peers.
I’m not sure how many teams in the Western Conference got better this offseason. Of course, there are the teams that added some good pieces but are still pretty far away from even being in the playoff conversation.
Chicago added some quality veterans again. They should be better as Connor Bedard enters his second season in the league. The same could be said for San Jose, who added Tyler Toffoli and will have both Macklin Celebrini and Will Smith in their lineup next year.
Still, they’ll be down towards the bottom of the conference with the likes of the Anaheim Ducks, who surprisingly haven’t done anything yet this offseason and the Calgary Flames, who are starting the painful years of their rebuilding process.
Teams like Seattle and Utah both added some quality players over the last two weeks, and they could push for a playoff spot. Minnesota and St. Louis didn’t do a lot, but they should still be competitive. There is a bit of a mushy middle that still exists in the conference, but what stands out most to me is that I don’t think any of those middling teams that missed the playoffs last season did nearly enough to put themselves into the conversation with the good and elite teams in the West.
So, for the Oilers to finish as the top dogs in the West, which they are favoured to do according to basically every sportsbook out there, they’ll be competing against the same batch of strong teams that they were last season. But even when you look at those teams, it’s hard to say that they improved in meaningful ways.
Let’s start in the Pacific Division, where the Vancouver Canucks lost Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov to free agency. Those two were their significant in-season additions last year, and they replaced them with Jake DeBrusk and Vincent Desharnais. Fine moves. But again, they aren’t better.
The main reason to believe in the Golden Knights being better is simply being healthy and having a full season of Tomas Hertl and Noah Hanifin. But they lost Chandler Stephenson and Jonathan Marchessault. They might be better than they were last year, but health is never guaranteed, and they have a few players who are getting older. I think they’re clearly the second best team in the division behind the Oilers, but they’ll need things to go right.
I’m pretty convinced that the Los Angeles Kings are going to be worse than they have been over the last number of years. The addition of Darcy Kuemper is not going to guarantee that they finally get passable goaltending next season. I like the move because it allowed them to move off of Pierre-Luc Dubois but Kuemper is coming off a bad year.
On the blue line, they lost Matt Roy and replaced him with Joel Edmunson. Yuck. Up front, Viktor Arvidsson left, and they brought in Warren Foegele, who does not have the same 25-30 goal upside as Arvidsson. They also added Tanner Jeannot, but he’s a bottom-six winger and nothing more.
Of the eight playoff teams from last season, they’re most at risk of falling out of the playoff picture next year. I don’t think they did enough to address their problems, and I don’t like that they didn’t go outside the organization with their Head Coaching hire.
The Oilers are very clearly the best team in the division. But can they be the best team in the Western Conference?
Well, last year, three teams in the Central finished with more points than the Oilers. The Stars won the division and will continue to be an absolute wagon. They added Matt Dumba and Ilya Lybushkin to their blue line and are bringing back basically the same forward group.
Taking that and combining it with steps forward from their high-end young forwards like Logan Stankoven and Mavrick Borque and they should be just as good as they were last season.
The same can’t be said about the Colorado Avalanche and Winnipeg Jets.
The Avalanche likely won’t have Valeri Nichuskin in their lineup to begin next season, and who knows when or if he’ll ever be back. They should have their Captain Gabriel Landeskog back, but after two years off, who knows how impactful he’ll be.
Aside from that, their lineup is almost the same, but they still only have ten forwards signed and minimal cap space. They might still have to move out a player to create space to fill out their roster.
The Jets lost their two big in-season additions in Sean Monahan and Tyler Toffoli. Brendan Dillon also left in free agency, and they bought out Nate Schmidt. They didn’t make any meaningful additions. They seem primed for a step back next season.
The lone playoff team in the Central Division that finished with fewer points than the Oilers is the Nashville Predators, and they are widely considered the offseason winners. They signed the top three off of Frank Seravalli’s Top Free Agents, agreeing to terms with Steven Stamkos, Jonathan Marchessault and Brady Skjei.
On top of those big-name adds, they still have Juuse Saros, Roman Josi, and Filip Forsberg.
They’re going to be very good next year, and they still have a blue-chip trade prospect in Yaroslav Askarov that they could use to further bolster their lineup.
They’re a legit threat to win the division and a legit threat to finish higher than the Oilers.
It’s a three-horse race for the top of the conference, and the Oilers will be right in the thick of it. Jeff Jackson killed it so far this offseason, and the 2024-25 Oilers seem primed to be one of the most exciting teams in the league.
The season has only been over for a few weeks, but I’m ready to say: get me to October.
