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DAVID MUSIL: TAKE IT TO THE LIMIT
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Lowetide
Apr 12, 2016, 21:28 EDTUpdated:
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One year ago, David Musil had just completed his first NHL cup of coffee. Playing well after his first NHL recall, Musil picked up an assist (his second in three games), played 19 minutes and posted a solid showing. One year later? Another solid AHL season is wrapping up, but no time in the NHL for the young defender. What does his future look like?
  • Musil: “Getting called up to Edmonton and playing my first NHL game was something unbelievable.” Source
Although he has shown progress over all three seasons of his minor league career, Musil’s skill set is duplicated by others who are younger, have a higher draft pedigree and who are ahead of him on the current depth chart (Darnell Nurse, Griffin Reinhart). This is not good.
Musil plays an important role on the Bakersfield Condors. Coach Gerry Fleming has referred to him often as a shutdown defender, and our own Scott Zerr has said the same—here, and on the Lowdown. We know he doesn’t bring offense, so we are taking about a player who needs to show value at even strength and on the power play. Many call this a 5-6D, and Edmonton has many, many players of this type in all age ranges. From youngsters like Musil, Nurse and Reinhart, to established veterans like Mark Fayne, to those who have played for many years in this role like Andrew Ference. It is mighty crowded in this part of the roster.

HOW MUCH DOES HE PLAY IN BAKERSFIELD?

A website called ProspectStats.com has done a lot of work in estimating things like AHL (and CHL) ice time, and the results are fascinating. Here is their take on the Condors TOI per game this season:
  1. Brad Hunt 21:42
  2. Jordan Oesterle 21:01
  3. Griffin Reinhart 18:41
  4. Nikita Nikitin 18:25
  5. Joey Laleggia 18:20
  6. Dillon Simpson 17:26
  7. David Musil 16:56
  8. Martin Gernat 16:09 (since traded)
  9. Ben Betker 13:37
  10. Nick Pageau 12:53
  11. Source
This is the group of defensemen who played more than 10 games this season. It is fairly easy to identify the power play (Hunt, Oesterle, Nikitin and Laleggia) based on 5×4 points—leaving Griffin Reinhart has the big minutes player in the defensive defenseman category (if these numbers are accurate).
Musil plays as a regular part of the rotation (we know he isn’t getting a lot of PP time based on his point total, and could also guess he is used a lot on the PK based on skill set). Now that we have established he is a regular at evens and PK (as much as we can, anyway), let’s hear from the coach.
  • Gerry Fleming, Condors Coach: “He’s been our number-one shutdown guy and been
    great on the penalty kill. We use him in all situations, we use him late
    in the game when we’re up a goal, and he’s responded well. The biggest
    thing is when you don’t notice Dave during a game, you know he’s had a
    good game. He reads the play offensively as well. A lot of people
    underestimate his value in that area but he jumps in at the right times.
    He activates at the offensive blue line at the right times, he’s been
    getting pucks down to the net a lot better, and creating offensive
    chances for himself. But his specialty, obviously, is as a shutdown guy
    and he’s done a good job at that. We’d like to see him get an
    opportunity but that’s out of his control. All he can control is the way
    he plays down here. At times it’s been a little frustrating for him.
    We’ve had a few talks and he’d like to get an opportunity but you can’t
    worry about whether or not you’re going to get an opportunity. You have
    to worry about the things you can control in your game.”     Source
I think this is a great quote because it frames the Musil issue well. He is a solid defender at the AHL level, and if Darnell Nurse was back in junior, and Griffin Reinhart still with the Islanders organization, then he might have a clear path to the NHL. That is not the case, and Musil will be waiver-eligible in the fall. It would seem Musil is at a crossroads in the organization.

WHAT DOES IT ALL MEAN?

David Musil is a smart shutdown defender who has worked for three long years to refine his skills as an NHL prospect. From where I see things, there are three options for Edmonton with this player:
  • Risk waivers this fall when sending him down
  • Trade Musil this summer
  • Move out players and use Musil as an end-of-the-roster D ala Brandon Davidson in the fall, in the hopes he can step in when injuries hit and find his NHL way in that fashion.
I see two issues: First, Musil has been blocked by trade and development of others (Reinhart, Nurse). Second, he has some speed issues and that may be enough to keep him on the outside looking in. I always like to go back to the draft day scouting reports for clues, and in the case of Musil the words remain true:
  • Red Line Report: Maintains great gap control
    and always squares up to the puckhandler. Has good poise, plays solid,
    mistake-free game in own zone and is excellent positionally. Reads and
    anticipates developing plays well. Good laterally, but 1st step and
    straightaway speed are average. Is not good as either a PP quarterback
    or trigger-man— has weak shot and makes poor decisions in puck
    distribution.
The waiver worry begins in the fall and his NHL games may not be as an Oiler. The trade value is not strong (all teams have prospects who are in that middle area, too experienced for the AHL, waiver eligible, but with no clear path to the NHL roster). There is a very real possibility Musil will clear waivers in the fall and spend a fourth season in the AHL in 2016-17. He may deserve a better fate, but the Oilers are aiming higher on the depth chart this summer.
All photos by Mark Williams
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