Ten games into the season, Connor McDavid is shooting the puck less than ever, and it’s making him less effective offensively. Don’t get me wrong, I’m not saying he should listen to the drunk fan in section 215 screaming “SHOOOOT!” every time the puck enters the offensive zone. What I am saying is that he’s taken his pass-first tendency to new extremes, to the point where it’s detrimental to his game.

McDavid’s reluctance to shoot early in the season is puzzling, given that he identified shooting volume as an area he wanted to improve on this year. Listen to how he spoke about his mentality heading into the season in an interview with Jason Gregor in early September.

It sounded like the kind of adjustment that could get him back in the Rocket Richard Trophy conversation. But through the first 10 games, we’ve seen the opposite. McDavid’s lack of assertiveness with the puck has been a growing concern, as his shot rates have been in steady decline ever since his incredible 64-goal season in 2022-23.

• 22/23: 64 goals and 11.51 shots/60
• 23/24: 32 goals and 9.72 shots/60
• 24/25: 26 goals and 7.97 shots/60
• 25/26: 1 goal and 7.13 shots/60

McDavid is only on pace for approximately eight goals and 90 assists this season, but let’s not get carried away; he will certainly outperform this pace, especially in the goal-scoring department. His shooting percentage of 3.6 is due for positive regression, and he’s never had fewer than 30 goals in a season in which he played over 70 games.

While luck certainly plays a role, it’s undeniable that shooting the puck less is leading to fewer goals. That begs the question, why is this happening? So far this season, McDavid is spending a slightly larger percentage of his TOI in the offensive zone than he did during his 64-goal campaign. It’s not for a lack of puck possession.

Has fatigue from back-to-back runs to the Stanley Cup Final caused him to take his foot off the gas during the regular season? It’s possible. McDavid managed to reach 8.93 shots/60 during last spring’s playoff run. He wasn’t quite the shooting machine that we saw in 2022-23, but he proved he still has it in him to fire the puck at a decent clip when he’s playing at maximum effort.

Injury is another theory I’ve seen tossed around. Does McDavid have some lingering upper-body issue that’s made him reluctant to shoot? Perhaps, but his average shot speed hasn’t declined at all according to NHL EDGE’s puck tracking, and his skating speed is faster than last season. If he is nursing something, it’s not stopping him from moving well and getting good zip on the puck.

Ultimately, only McDavid himself knows the answer. Perhaps he’s conserving energy, or maybe it’s a mental hurdle that he can’t seem to shake right now. Whatever the case, the Oilers need him to rediscover that killer instinct — the one that made him the league’s most dangerous scorer, not just its best playmaker. When he starts attacking the net again, Edmonton’s offence will look a lot more like the juggernaut it’s supposed to be.