After a thrilling few weeks of Olympic hockey, the NHL is back underway, and for an Edmonton Oilers squad that limped into the break, there’s a heightened sense of urgency.

They sit third in the Pacific Division, but only four points separate them from the playoff line.

HockeyStats’ analytics model has them at a 60 percent chance of making the playoffs, which is favourable but far from a foregone conclusion, like it was at this point in the season the past few years. Their 28-23-8 record is undoubtedly a major disappointment given the expectations coming into the year.

Most of Edmonton’s core players, Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, Zach Hyman, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, and Evan Bouchard, have done their jobs. The supporting cast, however, has deteriorated around them. Without McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice, the Oilers have been outscored by a dreadful 61-32 margin.

Someone outside of the top two lines and top pair needs to step up. Today, I’m going to discuss some underperforming players who could be X-factors for the Oilers down the stretch and, hopefully, into the playoffs by upping their game.

Jake Walman

When Jake Walman joined the Oilers at last year’s trade deadline, he made an immediate impact. In the absence of Ekholm, who missed most of the final two months of the regular season with an injury, Walman stepped in and won his minutes in a top pair role. He was a plus-five at 5-on-5 and held a solid 55 percent share of expected goals.

In the playoffs, the Oilers moved Walman into essentially a third-pair role, with Kulak and Nurse as the left-handed defencemen on the top two pairs. This deployment allowed Walman to dominate against softer competition and gave Edmonton’s depth lines a decisive advantage.

The fantastic puck-moving and offensive assertiveness from Walman were some of the main reasons the Oilers outscored the opposition without McDavid and Draisaitl on the ice during the 2025 playoffs. This season has been a completely different story.

Walman was banged up in training camp, missing the first six games. A deep bone bruise in late November then sidelined him again for nearly two months.

He hasn’t looked like the same player when he’s been in the lineup either. At 5-on-5, Walman is being outscored 31-22 this season, with an underwhelming 44 percent expected goal share. While lingering effects of his recent injuries might be impacting his play, playing on his offside is also contributing to the problems.

For nearly his whole career, Walman has played on his natural side as a left-handed-shooting defenceman, but the Oilers have an abundance of left-handed defenders and shallower depth on the right side. As a result, the coaching staff is using him primarily on the right side with Nurse.

The rationale was that Walman has the puck-moving skill to complement Nurse, and playing on his offside would open up one-timers, since he likes to shoot the puck. In practice, this hasn’t worked out. Walman’s puck-moving, one of his biggest strengths, is compromised when he’s forced to make so many plays on his backhand. Instead of fueling the transition game, he’s icing the puck and turning it over more frequently.

Defensively, he’s blown a lot more assignments, which I suspect is another result of his discomfort with playing on the opposite side of the ice. The Oilers have leaked chances in Walman’s minutes; he ranks dead last on the team in expected goals against per hour.

Hopefully, the Olympic break gave him a chance to heal up and get a mental reset. There is plenty of hope that he can be a difference-maker once again, especially if the Oilers can add a right-shot defenceman before the trade deadline to address their handedness mismatch.

Darnell Nurse

This season has been one to forget for Nurse. The same issues that have plagued him in the past, such as puck-moving, retrievals, shot selection, and penalty killing, have all been problematic for the majority of this season, and the results are concerning.

Nurse’s play-driving and outscoring numbers are at their worst since 2018-19, when the Oilers were not a playoff team. He needs to be better.

Edmonton has had a reliable top pair in Matias Ekholm and Evan Bouchard since 2023, but they haven’t found a long-term partner for Nurse that works ever since the Nurse-Ceci duo fell out of favour several years ago.

Troy Stecher had some chemistry with Nurse last season, but the team ultimately didn’t trust him in the Stanley Cup Final, and he was waived early this season. With Nurse and Walman floundering and no clear-cut internal solution, look for a right-shot defenceman to be a primary target heading into the trade deadline.

If they can find him a suitable right-handed partner, Walman and Emberson could pair up to give the Oilers a more balanced defensive core with everyone playing their natural side.

Tristan Jarry

After years of inconsistency from their goaltenders, the Oilers finally pulled the trigger on a move that sent Stuart Skinner to the Pittsburgh Penguins in exchange for Tristan Jarry. So far, it hasn’t gone as planned.

He was having a fantastic start to the season with the Penguins, posting a .909 save percentage and 7.6 goals saved above expected in 14 games. Since coming to Edmonton, though, he has posted a .864 save percentage and -5.6 goals saved above expected.

Ironically, the Oilers traded out one notoriously streaky goalie for another, but here we are. Jarry was one of the best goalies in the NHL during the first couple of months this season, and he hasn’t looked anywhere near the same since the trade.

Getting the defence in front of him straightened out would go a long way in bringing the best out of Jarry instead of what we’ve gotten recently. He only has an expected save percentage of .883 with the Oilers, so while he’s certainly underperforming, the environment hasn’t exactly been conducive to his success either. According to Natural Stat Trick, the Oilers have given up 3.1 expected goals per hour at 5-on-5 in front of Jarry, while they only gave up 2.5 per hour in front of Skinner.

Interestingly, Jarry’s 5-on-5 save percentage of .885 with the Oilers is slightly above expected. The bigger problem is on the penalty kill, where his save percentage plummets to .766—far worse than the other three goalies who have suited up for the team.

Edmonton’s best penalty killer this season, Adam Henrique, has finally returned from injury, and the coaching staff had a three-week break to make some tweaks to their tactics. If the changes work and Jarry starts gaining more confidence and controlling his rebounds better, especially on the penalty kill, he could make a difference.

Trent Frederic

Last season was considered a down year for Trent Frederic. It was an injury-riddled season where he produced 15 points in 56 games, his lowest total in four years. His struggles continued into the playoffs while playing through a high-ankle sprain.

Despite the tough season, the Oilers signed him to an eight-year extension, making a risky bet that he would regain form and become an effective bottom-six forward, capable of providing physicality and secondary scoring. Instead, Frederic has looked like a shell of his former self. He’s currently on a 27-game pointless streak and has only three points in 56 games.

High-ankle sprains are known for nagging on athletes for many months, and there’s no doubt that is a factor impacting Frederic’s play. In the past, his rare mix of size and speed allowed him to get to pucks quickly and fend off opponents on retrievals. Through most of the first 56 games, though, he has looked slow.

Oiler fans may recall back in 2023-24 when Connor Brown took 55 games to register his first goal with the team, after missing nearly the entire 2022-23 season due to an ACL tear. He improved his skating over time and played well for the Oilers in the playoffs.

Can Frederic follow in Brown’s footsteps and rediscover his game, or is his season doomed? The bottom six could definitely use his help.

Everyone needs to be better.

The underperforming players I’ve discussed so far may have an outsized impact on the team’s success if they can step up their games, but the responsibility doesn’t stop there. Before the Olympic break, Leon Draisaitl spoke candidly about the team’s performance and how everyone, from top to bottom, can improve.

“We’re not consistent enough, and this league’s too hard to just lollygag through games and try to get winning streaks going,” said Draisaitl. “You need everybody. It starts with the coaches, like, everybody.

“You’re never going to win if you have four or five guys going. It starts at the top. We can be better, our leaders can be better, and we’ll take the break and regroup.”

Draisaitl is right. If the Oilers are going to turn things around, it’s going to take a collective effort—everyone from the coaches to the skaters and the goalies. The race to the playoffs is underway, and the margin for error is shrinking.

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