Connor Murphy played in his first pre-season game against the Winnipeg Jets last night, leading the Edmonton Oilers in ice time with 23:09, while throwing two hits, blocking five shots, and preventing the Jets from getting on the scoresheet while he was on the ice.

The rugged blueliner was acquired from the Chicago Blackhawks before the trade deadline last season in exchange for a second-round draft pick, and over his 20 regular-season and six playoff games, he wasn’t flashy, but did what he was brought in to do, and that’s provide the Oilers with steady and reliable defence.

The Oilers obviously liked what they saw from the 33-year-old, re-signing him to a five-year deal worth $4 million average annual value (AAV) last June, and he’s expected to be a pillar on the Oilers’ blue line this season.

With that in mind, you’re not going to see too many dangles and toe-drags from Murphy, but what I do think we’ll see is the 33-year-old set career highs in multiple categories this regular season. Let’s take a look.

Last season, in 60 games with the Blackhawks and 20 games with the Oilers, Murphy blocked a combined 138 shots, and his career-high in shot blocks in a season came during the 2024-25 campaign, when he blocked 160 shots.

The Oilers’ regular-season shot-blocking leader in 2025-26 was Darnell Nurse, and with the veteran D-man now with the San Jose Sharks, the door is open for someone else to step up as the team’s shot-blocking guru. That said, Murphy seems like a very good candidate for the role, and as mentioned, he already started the season on a good note, blocking five shots in his first pre-season game against the Jets.

In addition, in six playoff games last season, Murphy led the Oilers in blocks with 16 in 127:36 minutes. And according to Natural Stat Trick, among all players who played a minimum of 100 minutes last playoffs, Murphy’s 7.52 blocks per 60 minutes ranked fourth in the NHL.

My prediction is that the blueliner leads the Oilers in blocked shots, surpassing his career-high of 160 in a season in the process. I’m predicting 168 blocks in 2026-27, which would average out to two blocks per game over an 84-game season.

Murphy’s M.O. is playing a sound defensive game, and he’s not exactly known for putting up a lot of points. His career high in points in a season is 19, which he’s reached twice, in 2019-20 and 2024-25, but I’m going to predict that the 33-year-old sets a new career high in points this season.

To start, I feel Murphy can set a career high in points this season simply because of the opportunity in front of him. He’s going to play a full season on an Oilers team loaded with high-end offensive talent with the likes of Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard.

Not to throw shade at Chicago, but the Blackhawks teams Murphy has been on over the last six seasons haven’t made the playoffs, and one contributing factor has been a lack of firepower up front.

Take the 2024-25 season, for example, when Murphy played a full season in Chicago. The Blackhawks’ leading scorer was Connor Bedard with 67 points, followed by Ryan Donato with 62 and Teuvo Teräväinen with 58. In contrast, the Oilers’ top three point producers that season were Leon Draisaitl with 106 points, Connor McDavid with 100, and Evan Bouchard with 67, a considerable difference.

Also, by the eye test, Murphy’s games with the Oilers last season showed that he can make a crisp, clean first pass. The underlying metrics support that as well, as All Three Zones data from last season indicated that Murphy ranked well above average, roughly in the 80th-85th percentile among D-men, in generating successful passes from the centre lane.

All things considered, I don’t anticipate Murphy receiving a lot of power-play time this season, but I can see him picking up the bulk of his points simply from making a nice, clean pass to his Oilers forwards off the rush and watching them bury it. Not to mention, he has a pretty decent shot, having scored a couple of goals last playoffs.

My prediction? Five goals, 19 assists, and 24 points for Murphy this season, setting a new career high.

Plus/minus is an interesting stat. Some view it as the be-all and end-all, while others don’t put much stock in it. But regardless of where you stand, we can probably agree that it’s better to have a positive plus/minus than a negative one.

Murphy finished at -2 last season between the Blackhawks and Oilers, and his career-high is +12, which he recorded back in 2018-19. But I predict the blueliner will be on pace to beat that career-high this season.

One reason is simple, and it’s already been mentioned. Murphy will play a full season on a better Edmonton team than Chicago, and last season’s goal differential helps illustrate the difference. The Oilers finished at +13, while the Blackhawks finished at minus-62. That’s a 75-goal swing between the two teams, and that alone could have a positive effect on Murphy’s plus/minus.

Additionally, a key to having a good plus/minus is keeping the puck out of your own net, and I get the feeling head coach Mike Babcock is a “take care of your own end first” type of coach. I feel a result of that will be the Oilers having more defensive structure than in previous seasons. Combine that with Murphy’s first-pass ability to spring his forwards in transition and playing with high-end offensive talent, and it could equal his plus/minus seeing a spike.

My prediction? We’ll see the Dublin, OH native post a +15 plus/minus in 2026-27.

All in all, Murphy will play a big role on the Oilers’ blue line this season, and playing a full season surrounded by the best offensive talent he’s had in his career should give him plenty of opportunities to succeed, meaning a career year could be in the cards for the 13-year NHL veteran.

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