The Edmonton Oilers are preparing for life without Darnell Nurse on the blue line, and that means there’s a spot open in the top four next to Connor Murphy on the second pairing.

If we’re simply going by logic and players’ salaries, the Oilers’ top four should be:

Mattias Ekholm – Evan Bouchard
Jake Walman – Connor Murphy

Looking at that second pairing, I certainly hope this is how things shake out, considering Walman’s seven-year, $7 million average annual value (AAV) contract kicks in this season. He’s paid like a top-four blueliner and, on paper, should be the one playing with Murphy in 2026-27.

But this is where I’m going to get a little bold. Walman may have the inside track to play alongside Murphy, but there’s a wildcard blueliner who could be in the mix, and I’m predicting Ryan Shea works his way into the second-pairing role over Walman this season.

To start, one of the reasons Shea could find himself on the second pairing is simple, and that’s by default if Walman can’t stay healthy, having missed 29 games last season due to injuries. Fingers are crossed ever so tightly that he can play a full season, but Shea gives the Oilers some good insurance if he can’t.

But let’s take health reasons out of the scenario for now. At 29 years old, Shea is your prototypical late bloomer, but his hockey career has steadily trended upward. Based on his trajectory alone, it’s not out of the question that he could just naturally work his way onto the second pairing. To understand why that’s a possibility, let’s take a look at how he got here.

Shea played four seasons at Northeastern University, where he finished his NCAA career as captain of the Huskies and was called “one of the best defencemen and captains in Northeastern history” by his coach. In his final season, the blueliner led his team to its third straight Beanpot championship and a Belpot championship in 2019-20, where he was named tournament MVP.

He then signed as a free agent with the Dallas Stars organization in August 2020, playing three seasons with the Texas Stars. The D-man improved each AHL season steadily, as reflected in his plus/minus, going from -13 to -4 before his final season, when he led the entire league with a +37 plus/minus in 2022-23.

After signing with the Pittsburgh Penguins in July 2024, he continued to trend upward. He tallied one point in 31 regular-season games in 2023-24, then registered five points the following season before taking a huge step last year with 35 points, and his +30 ranked 21st in the entire NHL.

Simply put, if I were to imagine what a graph of Shea’s hockey career looks like, it would look like the S&P 500 chart, with a slow and steady arrow trending upward.

That said, there are no guarantees that it will continue, but past performance can be a good indication of what the future holds. And if that trend continues for the 29-year-old, it’s not hard to imagine the Oilers’ top four being his next stop.

With Nurse gone, there’s also an open spot on the penalty-killing unit, and Shea is a great candidate to fill the void.

Shea was a big part of the Penguins’ strong penalty kill last season, which clicked at an 81.4% rate, playing the third-most PK minutes on the team. Also, as Lane Golden described, Shea’s Wins Above Replacement (WAR) on the PK over the last three seasons ranks in the 89th percentile, meaning he’s been a more impactful penalty killer than 89% of the league’s defencemen.

That said, I can imagine a scenario where Shea starts on the third pairing but excels on the PK, which ultimately earns his coaches’ trust. And if he continues to earn the confidence of D.J. Smith and Mike Babcock, they may give him more responsibility at five-on-five, especially if Walman’s play starts to slip. And quite honestly, this could be the catalyst that turns the prediction of Shea overtaking Walman for a spot in the top four into a reality.

While the first pairing of Ekholm and Bouchard will be the offensive duo, I’d view the second pairing with Murphy on it as the shutdown, minute-munching duo tasked with matching up against the opposition’s best lines.

If Shea can build on his play from last season, it could help him earn a spot on the second pairing, especially after showing how well he played against tougher competition in 2025-26.

According to PuckIQ, Shea performed better against elite competition at five-on-five last season, posting a 55.20 GF%, compared to Walman’s 45.20 GF%.

And to further demonstrate that point, albeit with a small sample size, I used data from Natural Stat Trick to compare Walman and Shea against an elite player like Macklin Celebrini, who put up 115 points last season.

Walman, playing in the same division as Celebrini’s San Jose Sharks, played 23:15 against him at five-on-five, posting a 42.86 CF%, 43.18 FF%, 39.29 SF%, 37.95 xGF% and 2  HDCF%, and the Oilers gave up one goal against the Sharks’ superstar while Walman was on the ice against him.

Shea, on the other hand, playing out of the Eastern Conference, only played 12:45 minutes against Celebrini at five-on-five. Nevertheless, his underlying numbers against him were much better, posting a 47.06 CF%, 50% FF%, 62.50 SF%, 52.95 xGF% and 66.67 HDCF%, while his team didn’t give up a goal against Celebrini with Shea on the ice.

Yes, it’s a very small sample size, and while I wouldn’t use the numbers versus Celebrini as the be-all and end-all to show that Shea may be better equipped to handle a second-pairing role than Walman, it’s another trend to keep an eye on when it comes to which blueliner the Oilers want on the ice more against elite competition in 2026-27.

On top of that, Shea isn’t simply a defensive-minded defenceman who can kill penalties. He can also move the puck pretty well. According to All Three Zones, the D-man is well above average when it comes to moving the puck out of the defensive zone and excels in several puck-retrieval and exit categories.

Furthermore, his 33 five-on-five points in 2025-26 ranked 13th among NHL defencemen, and when he was on the ice with Sidney Crosby last season, Crosby’s goals-for percentage jumped to 62.96%, compared to 52.63% when he was on the ice without Shea. Putting it all together, last year’s data shows that Shea not only defended well against the elites, but can also play offensively with them.

Nevertheless, he may be a good yin to Murphy’s yang, with Shea serving as the more well-rounded, puck-moving defenceman and Murphy handling more of the physical responsibilities on the pair.

Overall, this piece isn’t a slight at Walman, because I feel that when he’s at the top of his game, he’s an absolute weapon on the Oilers’ back end, especially in the playoffs. And considering that he’s set to make $7 million this season, I certainly hope he can fill a role in the Oilers’ second pairing.

But I can’t deny that Shea brings some things to the table that could potentially make him a better fit in the top four, especially if he continues to do what he’s done throughout his hockey career and improve at every level.

With Walman’s injury history and Shea hopefully continuing to trend upward, the possibility of Shea stealing a spot on the second pair is certainly there. And ultimately, the fact that the Oilers have both of them capable of pushing for a top-four spot is a good problem to have.

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