When the Edmonton Oilers first claimed Kasperi Kapanen off waivers in November 2024, he quickly showed flashes of his skill and reminded everyone why he was a former first-round draft pick.

In his first game as an Oiler against the Minnesota Wild during the 2024-25 season, he drew two penalties thanks to his speed. By the second game, he was elevated to the top line to play with Connor McDavid, showed his high hockey IQ by playing fetch with the captain and registered an assist. That early play had me wondering why he was on the waiver wire in the first place.

Yet, those flashes of brilliance were just that, flashes. It didn’t translate into consistent production for the rest of the season.

However, after being a healthy scratch for the first nine games of the 2025 playoffs, Kapanen stepped up with a big performance the rest of the way. He scored a memorable overtime series-winner against the Vegas Golden Knights and began to show some real chemistry with Leon Draisaitl and Vasily Podkolzin.

After stepping up as a playoff hero, there was reason to believe Kapanen was going to put together a productive 2025-26 campaign. However, injuries limited him to just 41 regular-season games last year.

But come playoff time, Kapanen once again emerged as one of the Oilers’ most impactful players, recording six points (four goals, two assists) in six games against the Anaheim Ducks while leading the Oilers in goals despite their first-round exit.

Now, back for a third season, is this the time that the 30-year-old puts together a complete, impactful campaign from start to finish? I think it is.

A strong playoff performance is almost a given at this point, but my bold prediction is that Kapanen puts together a strong regular season and gets back to the 40-point plateau in 2026-27.

The Finnish forward registered 17 points (eight goals, nine assists) in 41 games last season, which equates to 0.43 points per game (P/G) and translates to 35 points over an 82-game regular season. Had injuries not shortened his 2025-26 campaign, Kapanen would’ve been flirting with the 40-point mark. And with two extra games on the schedule in 2026-27, he’ll have a little more runway to try and get there.

Also, the Kuopio, Finland, native has the ability to produce at five-on-five, an area where he was quite productive last season. According to Natural Stat Trick, he ranked fourth among Oilers’ forwards, behind McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and Zach Hyman, in five-on-five points per 60 minutes at 1.79.

Kapanen’s biggest strength is his speed, and his 23.92 mph max skating speed last season ranked him in the 98th percentile in the NHL, according to NHL Edge. But another strength of his game is his versatility. He can play up and down the lineup and excel in a checking role in the bottom six, but has consistently found success when elevated alongside Draisaitl and Podkolzin.

The trio has chemistry, and when I spoke with Ned Lukacevic last season about why they’re so good together, he said they get along well both on and off the ice, which adds to their chemistry, and their European cultural connection can also add to their cohesion.

At five-on-five last regular season, Kapanen on Draisaitl’s line outscored the competition 13-5, and they were outright dominant in the playoffs, outscoring the Ducks 7-1.

That said, as much as there will be experimentation with line combinations up front, the Podkolzin-Draisaitl-Kapanen line, we know, works, and the motto “if it ain’t broke, why fix it?” really stands out when I think of those three. It’s almost a no-brainer that this trio should have a long look together this season if Mike Babcock decides to play McDavid and Draisaitl on separate lines.

Looking at the trio, you have Podkolzin, who is continuously getting better and put in a lot of work with skills training this past off-season; Draisaitl, who is going to do Leon Draisaitl things and is always looking for ways to improve; and Kapanen, who has high skill, a clutch factor and should be highly motivated.

Put it all together, and there are plenty of reasons to believe Kapanen can turn that 35-point pace from last year into a 40-point season. He just needs to stay healthy.

Then there’s the whole Babcock factor, as the head coach and Kapanen have some history together.

Much like Hyman and goaltender Frederik Andersen, Kapanen was another player Babcock believed in when he coached him early in his career in Toronto.

During the 2018-19 season with the Toronto Maple Leafs, Kapanen hadn’t yet established himself as an NHL regular, but with William Nylander holding out due to contract issues, Babcock needed someone to fill in on the top-six and turned to the Finnish forward.

That said, Kapanen put up solid numbers that season. He played mostly on the top line, with his most common linemates being Patrick Marleau (618:30 minutes) and Auston Matthews (591:19 minutes). He registered 44 points (20 goals, 24 assists), with 39 of them coming at even strength, which remains a career high to this day.

In addition, Kapanen also became a trusted penalty killer for Babcock during their time together in Toronto. In his breakout 2018-19 season, he played the third-most shorthanded minutes among Maple Leafs forwards at 125:22 and scored a team-high two shorthanded goals. The following season, he ranked second among Toronto forwards in PK time at 115:19 and once again scored two shorthanded goals.

Now the two are reunited in Edmonton, nearly eight years after Babcock gave Kapanen a chance to prove himself in Toronto.

That said, while there will be Oilers depth players looking to impress the coach coming out of training camp, Babcock already knows what Kapanen is capable of, having gotten his most successful season, points-wise, out of him before.

For Kapanen, that familiarity could be important. He doesn’t have to start from scratch with a new coach trying to figure out what his strengths are.

And when a player knows a coach trusts them, it can do wonders for their game. An example of that comes from none other than Hall of Famer Patrick Roy, who spoke about the impact that trust from a coach can have on a player. Roy said in an interview with NHL.com in 2023, speaking about his former coach Jacques Demers, “It gave me such confidence, the trust he placed in me. You want to play for a coach like that.” From a mindset perspective, Kapanen should feel very comfortable heading into 2026-27.

Overall, the 30-year-old has a lot working in his favour heading into this season. He got a pay increase after a solid playoff run, has added motivation with a contract year ahead, has shown he can produce playing with Draisaitl, and now has a coach behind the bench who got the best NHL season out of him. The opportunity is there.

The big question is if, and that’s a big IF, he can stay healthy. If he can, my prediction is that Kapanen finishes the regular season with 41 points before he cranks up the clutch factor again in the postseason.

Toronto is calling — and this isn’t your average hockey trip.

The first 2026/27 Nation Vacation presented by JetSet Parking is here, and we’re taking over Toronto for one hell of a weekend.

A hockey trip is good. A Nation Vacation is better.