Earlier this summer, the NHL and Dan Friedkin agreed to a six-month window to explore bringing a team to Houston.

Recent news suggests a deal is far from finalized, but the 2029-30 season has been floated as a potential target for a new Texas franchise. Houston Mayor John Whitmire said earlier this month the city was “ready,” already conversing with multiple interested parties. There is still plenty to be determined, including what an eventual expansion draft would look like, though the NHL used the same format for the Vegas expansion in 2017 and the Seattle expansion in 2021.

Under those rules, teams could protect either seven forwards, three defencemen, and one goaltender, or eight skaters and one goaltender. Players with an active no-movement clause were required to be protected unless they agreed to waive it, but first- and second-year professionals were exempt from being selected.

A lot can change between now and 2029, but using that format and Edmonton’s current contracts and young players, we can get an early look at who the Edmonton Oilers would protect, and which players they could risk losing. And, for the sake of this scenario and the sanity of Oilers fans everywhere, we’ll assume Connor McDavid re-signs in Edmonton after his current contract expires.

The Oilers would likely go with the 7-3-1 format, but from here, this scenario gets hypothetical fast. Leon Draisaitl, Trent Frederic, and Jason Dickinson are the only Oilers forwards currently under contract for the 2029-30 season, meaning nearly every other candidate would first have to re-sign with Edmonton. Rather than trying to predict every contract decision between now and then, we’ll assume the players currently in the organization stick around.

Under this scenario, Connor McDavid, Vasily Podkolzin, and Matt Savoie join Draisaitl as the team’s most obvious protection choices. From there, things get much tougher. The development of Edmonton’s young forwards over the next three seasons could ultimately determine how the final three spots are used. If Isaac Howard establishes himself as an NHL scorer, he’d likely be near the top of that list, while Colton Dach and Josh Samanski could also force their way into the conversation.

What makes this so tricky is that by July 2029, Zach Hyman will be 37, Ryan Nugent-Hopkins 36, and Jason Dickinson 34. Even if they’re still productive, Edmonton would have to weigh protecting an aging veteran against exposing a younger player with more long-term value. Frederic, who would be 31 and is already signed through 2032-33, could present a similar dilemma depending on how his contract ages.

On the back end, the Oilers could face an interesting decision with their third and final defenceman protection spot.

Jake Walman is the easiest name to pencil in. He’s under contract through 2032-33, and his no-movement clause until 2030 would require Edmonton to protect him under the Vegas and Seattle format, where they lost Griffin Reinhart and Adam Larsson, respectively. Evan Bouchard’s current deal expires following the 2028-29 season, but assuming the Oilers re-sign their top defenceman, he would also be protected.

Connor Murphy and Ryan Shea are the only other Oilers defencemen currently under contract in the 2029-30 season, but that doesn’t necessarily mean either would be protected. Murphy would be 36 by the summer of 2029, and depending on how his play ages, the Oilers could be comfortable leaving him exposed. Shea would be 32 and still have two years remaining on his deal, and while he is a legitimate candidate for Edmonton’s final protection spot, much could depend on the development of their young defencemen.

That’s where Shakir Mukhamadullin comes in. He’d be 27, and if he’s turned into the top-four defenceman his draft slot suggested he could become, Edmonton could be forced to pick between him and Shea. Beau Akey is the wild card. He hasn’t shown much yet, but development isn’t always linear. If he’s made the jump to the NHL by 2029, protecting the 24-year-old becomes hard to pass up.

In net, as it currently stands, Devon Levi would be protected almost by default. He’s only signed through this season, but if he re-signs and becomes the long-term answer, it’s an easy call. Of course, plenty can change in three years. The Oilers could acquire or sign an established starter between now and 2029 who ultimately becomes the obvious choice instead. The trio of of Eemil Vinni, Samuel Jonsson, and Connor Ungar could also sway Edmonton’s decision if one of them breaks through at the NHL level. Ultimately, Edmonton’s goalie situation could look completely different in just a couple of years.

In this strictly hypothetical scenario, assuming the Oilers follow the 7-3-1 format and the players discussed remain with the organization, their protection list could look something like this:

Forwards: Connor McDavid (32), Leon Draisaitl (33), Matt Savoie (25), Vasily Podkolzin (28), Isaac Howard (25), Ryan Nugent-Hopkins (36), TBD

Defencemen: Evan Bouchard (29), Jake Walman (33), Ryan Shea (32) / Shakir Mukhamadullin (27)

Goaltender: Devon Levi (27) / Edmonton’s starter in 2029

There are still three seasons between now and a potential 2029 expansion draft, and it’s hard to imagine Edmonton’s forward group staying untouched over that span. Whether through trade or free agency, I’d expect the Oilers to add another top-six forward who becomes the obvious seventh protection choice.

These selections would leave Zach Hyman exposed. As beloved as Hyman is in Edmonton, he would be 37 by 2029, and the Oilers would have to consider how well his style of play will age and whether using a protection slot on him would make sense over a younger option. Jason Dickinson and Trent Frederic would also both be left unprotected. Dickinson’s game could still hold up at 34, though there’s always a risk he slows down by then. Frederic is the more obvious one to expose, but he’s unlikely to actually get plucked. Colton Dach, Viljami Marjala, and Josh Samanski are other names worth monitoring, particularly if one establishes themselves as an NHL regular over the next three seasons.

On the back end, it comes down to who the Oilers decide to protect between Shea and Mukhamadullin. Shea’s the safer, steadier option in a middle-pairing role, while Mukhamadullin’s the guy with more upside if he keeps trending the way the Oilers hope. Whoever isn’t protected, along with Connor Murphy, is probably the name an expansion team takes the closest look at.

In goal, my guess is as good as any as to who the Oilers protect. As of right now, it’s Levi, but a lot can change in three years.

Toronto is calling — and this isn’t your average hockey trip.

The first 2026/27 Nation Vacation presented by JetSet Parking is here, and we’re taking over Toronto for one hell of a weekend.

A hockey trip is good. A Nation Vacation is better.