They have been very efficient in elimination games in the last two years. They are 5-1 under Kris Knoblauch in games where they can end a team’s season, with the only loss being in Game 7 of the Stanley Cup Final, when both teams faced elimination. They know what it takes to put a team away, and in their five victories, they’ve either played with the lead or were tied for 303 of the 307 minutes.

They know Dallas will push hard. The Stars’ skaters outplayed the Oilers’ skaters in the first period of Game 4, but Stuart Skinner stopped all 16 shots in the first period, while the Oilers scored a power play goal. Edmonton’s skaters found their legs in the second period and only allowed 13 shots in the final 40 minutes. Skinner has been excellent in elimination games. He’s 4-1 with a .931Sv% and 1.58 GAA. Last year, he stoned the Stars in Game 6 in Edmonton, stopping 33 of 34 shots while the Oilers scored twice on only 10 shots on Jake Oettinger.

Ideally, the Oilers won’t rely solely on Skinner to win tonight, but he’s shown he’s capable of stealing the game if necessary. This year’s team hasn’t relied on their superstars to send their opponents golfing. Connor McDavid and Evan Bouchard didn’t score a point in either elimination game vs. L.A. or Vegas, while Leon Draisaitl assisted on Kasperi Kapanen’s OT winner vs. Vegas. The Oilers got goals from Kapanen, Connor Brown, Adam Henrique, Trent Frederic and Darnell Nurse, along with Zach Hyman and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. Every line contributed.

When you’re one win away from a second consecutive Stanley Cup Final, you don’t need extra motivation. Edmonton knows what’s at stake, but there will be some extra energy in the room. Mattias Ekholm will make his 2025 playoff debut tonight. Jeff Skinner will play his second-career playoff game. Both players will be buzzing, and that excitement is infectious. When Kasperi Kapanen and Troy Stecher drew in for Game 4 against Vegas their excitement and energy was noticeable on the ice. Same with Viktor Arvidsson last game after he was healthy scratched for five games. I’d expect the same from Ekholm and Jeff Skinner tonight.

The Oilers have controlled this series at 5×5. They’ve outscored Dallas 9-3, they’ve outscored them 5-1 off the rush and they’ve created more scoring chances. Tyler Seguin (two) and Jason Robertson are the only Stars players to score 5×5 and Dallas has only scored one goal 5×5 in the past three games. Edmonton has done a great job of taking away their best asset, scoring chances off the rush, and when they’ve allowed a good scoring chance, Stuart Skinner has been almost unbeatable. The only shot that beat him 5×5 was Robertson’s deflection on Lian Bichsel’s point shot.

Dallas had the advantage in possession time and scoring chances in period two of Game 3 and period one of Game 4. They will be desperate. Their crowd will be loud and try to help them take control of the game. The Oilers know this. They are experienced in these situations. This will be the 69th playoff game the Oilers have played the past four seasons. Only Florida has played more at 72. The moment shouldn’t be too big for Edmonton as they’ve shown they can absorb the punches of a team desperate to extend its season, and tonight the Oilers try and deliver another knockout punch of their own.

A Stanley Cup rematch with the Florida Panthers is one win away.

SNAPSHOTS…

— I can confirm Zach Hyman had surgery to repair his broken wrist. The Oilers will miss his energy and tenacity as well as his leadership in the room, however, they have enough depth to overcome it. The Oilers have won 11 playoff games without Mattias Ekholm. They only need to win five without Hyman to reach their ultimate goal.

— Corey Perry took Hyman’s spot on the Oilers’ top line after he was injured, and that line played great. They outshot the Stars 8-1 in only 6:25 of playing time. It is unlikely Perry will play top-line minutes all game, but I’d guess he will get the bulk of time on McDavid’s right wing.

— Mikko Rantanen has no goals and three assists in his last seven games, including two assists in four games in this series. I haven’t noticed him very much this series.

— I’ve seen many people mention Troy Stecher makes Darnell Nurse play better. I don’t buy it. When Nurse has played with Stecher this postseason he has a 40SF%, but away from him Nurse has a 51.1SF%. I love Stecher’s competitiveness, and he’s been solid, but even he said Mattias Ekholm is a better player and having Ekholm back in the lineup makes the Oilers better. Ekholm-Bouchard and Nurse-Kulak is better than Bouchard-Kulak and Nurse-Stecher.

— It will be interesting to see how Paul Coffey deploys his defencemen. Tonight is the first time these six Oilers defenders have dressed in the same game. Playing Ekholm with Bouchard, Nurse and Kulak and Klingberg with Walman makes sense, but how many minutes will Ekholm play? Will Coffey keep him around 18-19 minutes or will he play 22+?

— In the NHL’s playoff stats pack, they noted that Stuart Skinner has the best Sv% and goals against average in NHL history during wins in a playoff year. He has an .983Sv% and 0.39 GAA. Curtis Joseph is third on the list in both categories for his performance in 1997/98 with the Oilers.

— The Oilers are an impressive 5-1 in Game 5’s under Kris Knoblauch. They are 4-1 on the road with the only loss coming in Vancouver when JT Miller scored with 33 seconds remaining.

— If the Oilers win tonight the Stanley Cup Final will start next Wednesday, June 4th in Edmonton. Game 2 will be June 7th, and the remaining games would be June 9th, 12th, 14th, 17th and 20th. If the Oilers lose then the Cup Final will begin June 7th (in Edmonton or Dallas) and continue June 9th, 12th, 14th, 17th, 20th and 23rd.

LINEUPS…

Oilers

RNH – McDavid – Perry
Kane – Draisaitl – Kapanen
Skinner – Henrique – Frederic
Podkolzin – Janmark – Arvidsson

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Kulak
Walman – Klingberg

Skinner

I like the potential of the Kane-Draisaitl-Kapanen line — big, fast, skilled and two shooters flanking Draisaitl. The Janmark line played very well late in the L.A. series and early in the Vegas series before Knoblauch opted to insert Kapanen into the lineup. The Oilers will miss Hyman, but they have more than enough depth guys who can fill different parts of his game. Perry can play on the PP, Frederic can be physical while Kane and Kapanen can forecheck. Jeff Skinner won’t be asked to replace Hyman, they are different players, but would anyone be surprised if Skinner scored a goal? This year every player has found a way to contribute.

Stars

Robertson – Hintz – Rantanen
Marchment – Duchene – Seguin
Granlund – Johnston – Benn
Blackwell – Steel – Bäck

Harley – Heiskanen
Lindell – Ceci
Bichsel – Petrovic

Oettinger

Pete Deboer switched up his first and third lines to try to get more offence last game. Dallas did create a lot in the first period, but they couldn’t score. Wyatt Johnston has really struggled this series. He’s been outshot 27-12 and outscored 4-0 at 5×5. That is the line the Oilers need to exploit tonight. None of Granlund, Johnston and Benn have been on for a goal for at 5×5 this series. Granlund has made plays on the power play, but at 5×5 they’ve all been really quiet.