Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Kirill Kaprizov sits sixth in points/game at 1.29. Only Connor McDavid (1.69), Nathan MacKinnon (1.58), Nikita Kucherov (1.55), Leon Draisaitl (1.42) and Artemi Panarin (1.30) have scored more. Kaprizov has 312 points in his last 241 games.

What makes his numbers so impressive is that his next closest teammates in points are Mats Zuccarello (223) and Matt Boldy (190). He’s carried the Wild offensively, and more than that he’s changed how many view the Wild. They are no longer known as a passive, defensive-minded team. He makes them exciting to watch.

Kaprizov sits second in NHL scoring with 33 points, 14 more than his closest teammate. The Wild rank 10th in goals/game and he’s factored in on 54% of their goals. Draisaitl leads the Oilers at 49%. McDavid missed three games and currently sits at 43.6%, but McDavid has really picked up his play the past five games, and tonight’s game could feature a lot of dazzling plays from Kaprizov, Draisaitl and McDavid.

McDavid has 11 points the past five games while Draisaitl has nine, and the Oilers were shutout in one of them. Kaprizov also has nine points in his last five despite the Wild only scoring 14 goals. The Wild only have nine goals the past four games, and their offence, outside of Kaprizov has really dried up. For my money, Kaprizov is one of the top-five most exciting players in the game. These three should make some jump-out-of-your-seat plays tonight.

However, they are still winning because they don’t give up many goals. Filip Gustavsson has been excellent for the Wild. Marc-Andre Fleury has played well in his four starts, but Gustavsson has had a great bounce-back season. In 12 of his 14 starts he’s had a Sv% above .900 and he’s only allowed three goals in a game three times (and only once in his last 12 starts). His play combined with Kaprizov’s offence and the Wild’s overall commitment to team defense is why they own the fourth-best record in the NHL at 12-3-3. The Oilers get a bit of a break as Marc-Andre Fleury gets the start tonight, his first start since November 5th.

The Wild have been incredibly stingy defensively. They’ve allowed the fewest high-danger chances/game in the NHL. They are seventh in shots against 5×5. The Oilers, who are still struggling to finish their chances, have shown some signs of life offensively lately, but Kris Knoblauch mentioned it is still the an issue.

“The main concern is finishing and creating a lot of scoring chances,” said Knoblauch. “Teams all create their scoring chances differently, whether it is point shots, pressures, off the rush, and in a lot of the offensive metrics we are very high. Probably the biggest telling metric on creating chances are how many shot attempts are you getting from the slot. We are among the top-three in almost every category, and my biggest concern is making the plays. Five-on-five we’ve been playing very well, and our special teams need to improve and they are coming along.”

They will need to finish some chances tonight, because based on how the Wild have played all season, the Oilers might not get many.

— There is a lot of talk about goaltending in Edmonton. I think many are overreacting to Stuart Skinner’s start. It hasn’t been great, but how do the Oilers compare to the rest of the Western Conference?

Here is a look at the 16 Western Conference teams to see how they fare when allowing 3+goals or 4+ goals as well as their record when their goalie has .900Sv% or higher or an .899Sv% or lower.

Dallas, Winnipeg and Minnesota have had the most consistent goaltending. Dallas relies on their goaltending the most. They are 12-0 when the goalie has a Sv% of .900 and they are 0-6 when they are below .900Sv%.

Minnesota has allowed three goals or more in f0ur of their 18 starts. Filip Gustavsson has allowed two goals or fewer in 11 of his 14 starts.

Vegas’ offence has allowed them to play .500 hockey when their goalie has a Sv% below .900. Vegas has only had eight games when Adin Hill or Ilya Samsonov post a Sv% of .900 or better.

Winnipeg is the only team with a winning record (4-3) with a sub .900Sv%.

The Oilers would like a few more games with a sv%, above .900, no question, but their goaltending has improved after a sluggish start.

— The Oilers have killed off their last 12 power plays over the past five games. Ty Emberson has seen a big increase in his TOI and is on the first PK unit, while Derek Ryan has dropped out of the first three forward pairs. It isn’t just on those two, as the PK is more in sync, but Emberson has been really good on the PK the past five games.

—The Oilers sent Josh Brown to the minors yesterday, but then recalled him today. They also recalled Drake Caggiula, and we could see Caggiula in the lineup tonight if they go 12-6. If they opt for 11-7, then Brown will play.

Podkolzin – McDavid – Draisaitl
J.Skinner – RNHl – Kapanen
Janmark – Henrique – Brown
Caggiula – Ryan – Perry

Ekholm – Bouchard
Kulak – Stecher
Dermott – Emberson

Skinner

Kasperi Kapanen will make his Oilers debut tonight on the second line. He’s there because of injuries to Hyman and Arvidsson. Both wingers will sit out tonight and Saturday v. the New York Rangers. Knoblauch said Hyman is out 4-7 days, while Arvidsson’s issue has taken longer than they expected to come around. He did add that if it was the playoffs Arvidsson would play, but because they can, they are giving him more time to recover.

Darnell Nurse was a full participant in practice and he is a possibility to return on Saturday. The minimum a player has to sit out after sustaining a concussion is seven days, and seven days is tomorrow, so if Nurse gets cleared he could return v. the Rangers. The Oilers have five days off next week, Sunday-Thursday, so Hyman might only miss two games, and Nurse would get an extra week to recover if he doesn’t play Saturday.

Kaprizov –  Eriksson-Ek – Boldy
Johansson –  Rossi – Hartman
Foligno –  Gaudreau – Trenin
Lauko – Khusnutdinov – Shore

Middleton – Faber
Brodin –  Spurgeon
Chisholm –  Bogosian

Fleury

We could see power on power tonight. The Wild like to have Eriksson-Ek out against McDavid, but will they keep Kaprizov on his line, or move him so he can play against other lines? Some coaches feel the road team can dictate line matchups by who they put out. For instance, if the home team wants to play fourth line v. fourth line, some road coaches will then put out their fourth line (that they trust) out for a D-zone face off, just to see if they will match, or go with their top line. If they choose the latter, then the road coach will put his top line out the next shift. Interesting view point.

GAME DAY PREDICTION: Oilers win a low scoring game 3-2.

OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: McDavid, Draisaitl and Kaprizov all pick up points.

NOT-SO-OBVIOUS GAME DAY PREDICTION: Jeff Skinner scores his first goal in nine games and his second goal on home ice.