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Evaluating the Isaac Howard and Sam O’Reilly trade one year later
Photo credit: Flickr/Bakersfield Condors
May 19, 2026, 18:00 EDTUpdated: May 19, 2026, 18:21 EDT
One area that the Edmonton Oilers have improved in the past few years is their prospect pool.
They’ve signed quite a few players from the NCAA and Europe, but one of the most notable moves to bolster their prospect pool came last off-season when they traded Sam O’Reilly for Isaac Howard.
During the 2024 draft, the Oilers sent their 2025 first-rounder to the Philadelphia Flyers for the 32nd overall pick, using it to select O’Reilly. In his draft year, he scored 20 goals and 56 points in 68 games for the Ontario Hockey League’s London Knights, then an additional five goals and 12 points in 16 playoff games en route to a J. Ross Robertson Cup.
The following season, O’Reilly’s numbers improved to 28 goals and 71 points in 62 games, with seven goals and 22 points in 17 games, as the Knights once again won the J. Ross Robertson Cup, as well as the Memorial Cup.
At this point in his junior career, the 6-foot-1, 190 lbs. right-shot centre wasn’t the driving force of the Knights’ offence. Players like Sam Dickinson, Easton Cowan, and Denver Barkey did the heavy lifting in the two years the Knights went back-to-back.
Howard, on the other hand, was drafted 31st overall in the 2022 draft by the Tampa Bay Lightning after scoring 11 goals and 37 points in 27 games played with the United States National Development Team of the United States Hockey League. Joining Minnesota-Duluth for his freshman year in 2022-23, he scored six goals and 17 points in 35 games.
The Hudson, Wisconsin, product transferred to Michigan State, seeing his numbers jump to eight goals and 36 points in 36 games. Howard broke out in his junior year, scoring 26 goals and 52 points in 37 games, winning that year’s Hobey Baker Award.
With Howard entering his final collegiate year still unsigned, the Lightning decided to cut their losses, sending the 5-foot-10, 180-lb winger to the Oilers for O’Reilly.
Howard was and is still seen as the more National Hockey League-ready player. The pendulum of “who won this trade” swung in the Oilers’ favour in the immediate aftermath of the trade. Shortly after the trade, the 22-year-old signed his entry-level contract and played 29 NHL games, scoring two goals and five points in 29 games.
O’Reilly returned to junior, playing 28 games with the Knights, where he scored 12 goals and 28 points in 28 games. As is the case with junior hockey, the Knights’ window of contention came to an end, and O’Reilly was traded to their division rivals, the Kitchener Rangers. In the remaining 28 games that O’Reilly played, he scored 17 goals and 43 points.
That gave the 20-year-old 39 goals and 71 points in 56 games, en route to winning the OHL’s MVP in 2025-26. But the awards didn’t stop there, as O’Reilly won the bronze medal with Team Canada at the 2026 World Junior Championship, scoring four goals and eight points in seven games.
Then in the playoffs, the right-shot centre scored an incredible 17 goals and 28 points in 18 games, as he won his third J. Ross Robertson Cup. It’s not the first time that’s happened in OHL history, but it is a rare occurrence. Thanks to O’Reilly’s efforts, he was named the playoff MVP. After his playoff performance, the pendulum swung in favour of the Lightning as the team that won the trade.
But here’s the thing, O’Reilly accomplished that in his aged-20 season, or his “D+2” year. Howard won his Hobey Baker in his D+3 year as a 21-year-old, with both players turning that respective age on March 30th. Nowadays, the NCAA is considered the tougher league, especially with Canadian Hockey League players allowed to transfer to it.
And it’s also worth noting that while Howard didn’t find immediate success, he was one of the best rookies in the American Hockey League last season. In the winger’s 47 games with the Bakersfield Condors, he scored 24 goals and 50 points.
His 50 points were tied for the fourth-most among rookies in the AHL, while his 24 goals sat third, behind Quinn Hutson’s 30 goals and Iyla Protas’ 29 goals. Among rookies with more than 36 games (half the AHL games), Howard’s 1.06 point-per-game pace was second.
Only nine AHL players had a higher PPG with 36 or more games played, or 10 if you wish to include Samuel Blais and his 35 games. But what really stands out is Howard’s goal pace. With 24 goals in 47 games, Howard essentially scored a goal every other game.
Now, if he were to keep the same pace and play 72 games, Howard was on pace for 36 goals, which would’ve ranked second in the AHL. There were also eight players with 36 or more games played who finished with a higher goal-per-game.
Although he may not have shown the scoring in his limited NHL action, he’s proven capable of scoring at a professional level. The biggest question mark heading into the 2026-27 season is whether he can contribute in the NHL, and there are some concerns regarding his size.
The best way to describe the Howard-O’Reilly trade is one player (Howard) has a higher ceiling, but also a high probability to be a bust, while the other (O’Reilly) has a higher floor. If Howard develops correctly, he has the tools to be a top six forward, but if he can’t score, he doesn’t fit a bottom six role. As for O’Reilly, he has third-line centre potential written all over him.
There is a chance this trade backfires for the Oilers in the future, but with Howard’s strong 2025-26 season in the AHL, much like Matthew Savoie’s 2024-25, and O’Reilly having yet to play professional hockey, there is yet to be a winner or loser of this trade.
Ryley Delaney is a Nation Network writer for Oilersnation, FlamesNation, and Blue Jays Nation. Follow her on Twitter @Ryley__Delaney.