He will have a good roster led by Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Evan Bouchard. The Oilers will have some question marks on their roster, like any team, when the season begins, but not many new coaches inherit a team with as much offensive skill as the Oilers. The Oilers have some areas they need to improve and be more consistent in, but their overall skill level is better than that of most teams.
The players will be fresh. As of today, no player on the roster requires off-season surgery. The complete roster will be able to have a good summer of training, and unless someone suffers an off-season injury or gets injured at the World Championships (Evan Bouchard, Darnell Nurse, Mattias Ekholm, Josh Samanski, and Isaac Howard are playing), they will return in September healthy and refreshed for the first time in three seasons.
Draisaitl and McDavid said in their end-of-season press conferences that they and the team might have underestimated the importance of the regular season. They will be focused on having a good start and won’t feel their way into the season.
And like most teams, they will want to make a good first impression on their new coach.

Look how this team has responded to a new coach the past seven seasons.

Dave Tippett was hired on May 28, 2019. In October, the Oilers started 7-1 and were 12-6-2 in their first 20 games under Tippett. They finished the season with the ninth-most points in the NHL.

Jay Woodcroft was hired Feb. 10, 2022, after the Oilers started 23-18-3 under Tippett. Edmonton went 5-0 in Woodcroft’s first five games and 26-9-3 in the final 38 games, which was the second-best record in the NHL over that span.

Kris Knoblauch was named head coach on Nov. 12, 2023. The Oilers were 3-9-1 when Woodcroft got fired, but then went 10-3 in Knoblauch’s first 13 games and had the NHL’s best record at 46-18-5 with Knoblauch on the bench.

The Oilers’ recent history shows a team that plays better with a new coach. I’d argue the players’ renewed focus and attention to detail are what lead them to wins, not just the coach. I doubt Tippett, Woodcroft, or Knoblauch all got progressively and significantly worse during their tenures that would lead to them being fired, and upon their dismissal the team suddenly played better. Sorry, I don’t buy it. The players have to own how they played last year. Just blaming the coach is a cop out.

Maybe the players felt guilty when previous coaches were fired. Maybe they simply got jolted out of their doldrums, but whatever happened the pattern suggests they won’t struggle early next season.

NEW COACH OPTIONS…

— Bruce Cassidy might not be an option according to Frank Seravalli, as the NHL will not overrule Vegas and force them to grant Cassidy permission to speak with other teams. If Cassidy misses out on an opportunity to interview in Edmonton, Toronto or Los Angeles, I suspect this will lead to coaches wanting new verbiage in their contracts. It would state if they were relieved of their duties, that they would be given permission, if a team asked for it, to interview for head coaching jobs. Legally, Vegas is within its rights because the organization is still paying Cassidy, so unless the NHL, err, Gary Bettman, really puts pressure on them to grant Cassidy permission, he might have to wait until his contract expires. If that happens, I’d guess future contracts will have wording to protect this from happening. It isn’t normal, as most teams don’t want to pay a coach to not work for them, but right now Vegas would rather pay him not to work for them, than have the Oilers pay him to be their head coach.

— Peter Laviolette will be in the mix. He has been a head coach for parts of 23 NHL seasons. He started with the Islanders in 2001-02, and he has coached in Carolina (won the Cup in 2006 in his second season), Philadelphia (lost in 2010 Finals in his second year), Nashville (lost in 2017 Finals in his third season), Washington and with the New York Rangers.

He didn’t coach last season, but in an interview on the NHL Network he said he wants to get back on the bench.

“It has been good. Everybody wants to work, but I think getting a break coming out of New York was good. You miss so much through the course of your kids’ lives; it was nice to get to do things with them that I normally couldn’t. But now watching in the playoffs, you want to get back out there. Sometimes you just take a minute, take a beat, and get your mind back on track, and that’s where things are right now.”

Laviolette ranks seventh in most wins (regular season and playoffs combined) with 934. In the 20 seasons he finished behind the bench, his teams made the playoffs 14 times, and three of those misses came the year before he won the Cup in 2006 and the two years after. From 2010 to now, he’s only missed the playoffs three times. He’s had success with different teams. He’s never coached in Canada, and the best players he’s coached were Chris Pronger in Philadelphia and an older Alex Ovechkin in 2021-23. He has experience coaching superstars.

— Craig Berube will get an interview. I’ve seen people point to the struggles of the Maple Leafs this past season, and they point to how he deployed Austin Matthews. Yes, he played Matthews more minutes against elite competition than in recent seasons, but if you look at other seasons, Matthews played 42.3% and 39.8% of his time v. Elite talent when he scored 69 goals and in 2021 when he had 41 in 52 games (prorates to 64) via PuckIQ.com.

I think it is too easy to just blame Berube. Matthews did play a bit higher percentage against elite players, but his production crashed due to injuries and no Mitch Marner. I think it is a bit too narrow-minded to say Berube would play Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl too much against elite competition. Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl played a higher per cent of TOI against elite this past season than they did prior, and I guess the reason was due to the Oilers chasing games more often than they had in previous seasons, similar to Toronto. It would be worth asking Berube about the increase for Matthews, but William Nylander played the fourth-most minutes vs. elite in his career last year, and he had the highest points/game of his career this past season. You can’t just point to Matthews and claim it was all coaching, but then not mention Nylander having his best season.

— I’ve seen mentions of Jay Woodcroft, and I don’t see a fit from either side. Woodcroft wasn’t impressed with how it ended for him here, and the Oilers didn’t think he was the right guy at the time. I might be in the minority, but I’m not a big believer of reunions and second tours of duty. Very rarely do they work out as well as the first time. I’d be surprised if either side was that interested.

— The internal pressure to win is at an all-time high for the Oilers. Do they need a head coach with previous NHL head coaching experience? It would help, and I sense the organization feels it needs someone with experience as McDavid begins his new two-year contract. Here are some current NHL assistant coaches with previous NHL head coaching experience: Claude Julien, Dave Lowry, Dave Hakstol, Dean Evason, Derek Lalonde, Jack Capuano, Jeremy Colliton, Jim Hiller, Joe Sacco, John Stevens and Todd Richards. Todd Nelson was the Oilers’ interim head coach for 51 games. I’m still surprised he’s never been given an opportunity to be a head coach.

Do any of those names jump out at you?

I think the Oilers will take their time with this hire. There is no rush. As long as they have their head coach in place before the draft (June 26 and 27) and the trading season/free agency (July 1), that should be fine. Any coach they interview between now and then will come with a plan, including the system he’d like to run, but also who he’d want as his assistant coaches. The Oilers should allow the head coach free rein on who he wants on his staff. If he doesn’t present a staff the Oilers feel is competent, then don’t hire him. Don’t hire him and then tell him who his staff will be.

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NEW COACH OPTIONS…

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