In the Connor McDavid/Leon Draisaitl era, the Edmonton Oilers have been perfect the first time they have a chance to eliminate an opponent. They are 5-0 in Games 5 and 6 when they have an opportunity to clinch.bott

The Oilers are 2-2 in Game 7’s, which is also considered a clinching game, but those are potential clinching games for both teams.

The 2017, the Oilers won Game 6 at home against San Jose.

In 2022, they won Game 5 in Calgary.

In 2023, they won Game 6 in L.A..

In 2024, they won Game 5 at home v. L.A. in round one and defeated Dallas in six games in round three, once again on home ice.

They are 1-0 on home ice in Game 7, defeating L.A. in 2022, and 1-2 on the road, losing in Anaheim (2017) and Florida (2024) and winning in Vancouver (2024).

The Oilers have shown a good killer instinct in clinching games, and since 2017, only the Montreal Canadiens have a better winning percentage in clinching games. Here’s the record of teams that have played in at least two clinching games since 2017.

And while the Oilers are very good in clinching games, the Kings are 0-4 when facing elimination in that same span. They’ve lost in Games 5, 6 and 7 to the Oilers and lost in Game 4 to Vegas in 2018.

When you combine the recent killer instinct of the Oilers, the inability of the Kings to extend (or win) a series, and the last five periods of this series where the Oilers have dominated play, many arrows point to Edmonton sending the Kings home for a fourth-consecutive season.

But it won’t be easy. The Kings should be frustrated, angry and annoyed. After taking a 2-0 series lead, they’ve lost three games and have been really dominated as this tweet illustrates.

After Game 2, the Oilers woke up and started playing much better. The difference in the games have been staggering. Calvin Pickard has played well, and more consistent than Stuart Skinner did in the first two games, but the skaters have made the biggest improvement. They’ve been much tighter defensively, have reduced the glaring turnovers/giveaways and in the first two games the Oilers xSv% was .872 — in the last three games it is .914%. And the offence has been much better as well.

The Oilers’ dominant 3-1 victory in Game 5 was the ultimate team win. Every player played well. They didn’t rely on their superstars to win them the game. There will be nights Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl carry the team, because that is what you need from your superstars at times, but on Tuesday night all four lines, every blueliner and Pickard were heavily invested in the game.

It will be difficult to repeat such a dominant performance, but considering how dominant the last 100 minutes have been, you can’t rule it out.

The Oilers don’t need to thoroughly dominate the game, they just need to continue their ability to close out a series and get a win. Recent history suggests the odds are in their favour to do exactly that.

— We saw Adrien Kempe play some shifts on defence at 5×5 last game. The Kings used him there in the regular season at times as well. It is interesting to see how creative Jim Hiller will be with Kempe playing defence 5×5, and also using five forwards on the power play, but at the same time the Kings are outrageously cautious in other areas. They don’t forecheck very much, and we’ve seen them have no players on the Oilers’ side of centre when the Oilers break out. They just sit back. It’s baffling to me.

— Zach Hyman has 22 hits in the past two games and leads the Oilers with 36 in the series. Hyman had 53 hits in 25 playoff games last year. The Oilers have altered how they play in this series. With LA deciding to play mainly four defencemen and nine forwards, the Oilers decided to dump and chase. We’ve seen them dump pucks to a specific place, usually deep in the corners, which forces the defenders to have to turn and skate hard to each puck, and the Oilers are finishing as many body checks as they can. It has worked. The Kings have looked worn down, and I expect a similar strategy tonight.

— What adjustments have we seen from LA in the series? Hiller and DJ Smith, who Hiller said yesterday makes all the in-game decisions on the deployment of his blueliners, have been outcoached by the Oilers staff. The Oilers have been significantly more physical, and opted for more dump and chase, rather than always carrying the puck in. And it worked, they’ve worn down the Kings. LA has remained steadfast in their system, which is still way too passive. I’d argue they are just as passive as the 1-3-1, and often times when Edmonton has complete control in their own end, the Kings sit back with all five players on their side of centre. It’s awful to watch, and it is a main reason the Oilers are 15-8 in the previous 23 playoff games. Teams who forecheck hard are a much tougher challenge for the Oilers than teams who sit back.

— This is the fourth-consecutive series McDavid has produced double-digit points v. the Kings. He had 14 points in seven games in 2022, had 10 points in six games in 2023, had 12 in five games last year and he has 10 points through five games this year. Leon Draisaitl had nine points in 2022, 11 in 2023, 10 last year and has 10 so far this series.

In the salary cap era only 18 players have had two series with 10+ points. McDavid leads with eight followed by Draisaitl (6),  Sidney Crosby (4), Daniel Briere, Nikita Kucherov, Nathan MacKinnon, Evgeni Malkin (3) and Evan Bouchard, Mike Cammalleri, Johan Franzen, Jake Guentzel, Ryan Getzlaf, Dany Heatley, Brad Marchand, Alex Ovechkin, Mikko Rantanen, Paul Stastny and Henrik Zetterberg have two.

Draisaitl – McDavid – Perry
Kane – RNH –Hyman
Frederic – Henrique – Brown
Podkolzin – Janmark– Arvidsson

Nurse – Bouchard
Walman – Klingberg
Kulak – Emberson

Pickard

The Oilers’ D pairs will switch throughout the game, and you will see Evander Kane and Zach Hyman get a few shifts with McDavid and Draisaitl, but last game Knoblauch used those four lines quite a bit and he expects to again tonight.

Kuzmenko – Kopitar – Kempe
Fiala – Byfield – Laferriere
Foegele –Danault – Moore
Malott – Helenius – Turcotte

Anderson – Doughty
Gavrikov – Spence
Edmundson – Clarke

Kuemper

The Kings are using the same lineup as well. Hiller used his fourth line slightly more at five minutes and Jordan Spence played eight minutes, but once again Hiller is sticking mainly with his plan to use three lines and four defencemen. Brandt Clarke did log 14:43, the most TOI for him this series. Clarke is very creative and if the Kings are trailing, Smith would be wise to play his youngster a bit more. Even Darcy Kuemper said his team needs to be more aggressive when they get a lead. The Kings have lost the last two games despite scoring first. They were 7-1 when scoring first prior to the last two losses.