During his introductory press conference, head coach Mike Babcock said he was going to decrease the ice time of his top players and ensure depth players had more opportunities.

“A huge priority here is to create depth in the organization, and everybody on this team has to be important,” he said.

It makes sense to have bottom-six players playing a bit more, but is reducing the minutes of the Edmonton Oilers’ top power play unit an option for Babcock?

My initial thought is no. Edmonton’s best weapon is its power play. It was best in the NHL last season at 30.6 per cent. Over the past seven seasons, the Oilers’ power play has ravaged teams at a 28.1 per cent clip. The Oilers have posted three of the best six power play percentage in NHL history with 29.5 per cent in 2020 (sixth best), 30.6 per cent (fifth) last season and 32.4 per cent (first) in 2023. There is no debate: the Oilers have the best power play in league history, and the three main characters have been Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl, and Ryan Nugent-Hopkins.

Draisaitl has logged 1,875 power play minutes since 2020, while McDavid is at 1,873 and RNH has skated 1,762. They rank fifth, sixth, and 13th in the NHL in power play time over the past seven seasons, but McDavid ranks first in points with 324, Draisaitl is second with 293, and RNH is 10th with 195. McDavid and Draisaitl are the two drivers of the power play. RNH is a very good contributor, but those two superstars create most of the magic. The opposition has almost 2,000 minutes of video to breakdown and they’ve yet to find a way to slow them down. It is comical when the Oilers have a stretch of games where they don’t score on the man advantage, and some pundits, or fans, actually write, “Teams have figured out how to shut down their power play.” It happens yearly, only to be proven wrong time and time again.

When the season begins, the one area of the Oilers’ game that isn’t a concern is the power play. It will be good, likely great, but will Babcock tinker with it?

I’ve seen many fans, and some media people, opine that the second unit needs to play more. They need to get others involved. I think it would be asinine to do it.  First off, let’s look at some data.

Last season, Evan Bouchard led Edmonton in power play TOI at 297:46, followed by McDavid (295:51), RNH (253:48), Draisaitl (209:41) and Zach Hyman (209:41). RNH missed 10 games, Draisaitl missed 17 and Hyman missed 24.

Bouchard and McDavid missed no games and they ranked 11th and 12th in the NHL in power play TOI. Colorado had Nathan MacKinnon (second with 343:24), Martin Necas (fifth, 318:49) and Cale Makar (seventh, 313:24). Tampa Bay had two players in Jake Guentzel (third, 329:09) and Nikita Kucherov (fourth, 322:32) while Minnesota also had two in Kirill Kaprizov (eighth, 310:39) and Quinn Hughes (ninth, 308:18).

Minnesota possessed the third most efficient power play at 25.2 per cent, while Tampa was 17th at 20.7 per cent and Colorado was 27th at 17.1 per cent.

We don’t read how Minnesota and Colorado should reduce the power play time of their top units so the depth guys can get some time and produce. I agree Babcock should reduce McDavid and Draisaitl’s minutes, but I’d do it on the penalty kill and at five-on-five, rather than through the power play.

Colorado led the NHL with 216 goals at five-on-five while Tampa Bay was third at 195. Edmonton ranked 11th with 174. Let’s compare the TOI and production for the Oilers forward to Colorado, Tampa Bay and Minnesota.

McDavid played :30 more per game than MacKinnon, but MacKinnon outscored him 75-57. The Avalanche’s top players outscored the Oilers’ top guys, but so did their depth players.

Parker Kelly produced 19 goals and 32 points at five-on-five while averaging 10:23/game. He was ridiculously productive. No player in the NHL produced as much as he did in 10 minutes at five-on-five. He was an outlier, and it will be difficult to repeat, but Kelly’s 19 goals equaled the combined total of Andrew Mangiapane, Trent Frederic, Adam Henrique, Mattias Janmark, and Curtis Lazar. Lazar had four goals while averaging 8:20 game and he only played 45 games.

Babcock should reduce minutes of his top players at five-on-five, likely between 60-90 seconds/game, but the depth players simply need to produce more when they play. Being on the ice a bit more each night should help them feel more involved, but they need to contribute. Colton Dach was very productive in his limited time with the Oilers with 2-2-4 in four games and he only played 9:59/game.

Kucherov was much more productive than McDavid at five-on-five with 69 points in 1,111 minutes compared to McDavid’s 57 points in 1,389. I do think less TOI will lead to more production. McDavid and Draisaitl are in amazing condition, but that advantage decreases when they play more than their opponents.

Tampa’s third line played more and produced more. Whoever plays with Jason Dickinson on the third line will be asked to be good defensively, but they will need to produce more. Kasperi Kapanen was very good at five-on-five, but he battled injuries all season, missing 41 games. If he remains healthy, and produces like he did last season, that will be a big boost for the Oilers.

Minnesota ranked 17th in five-on-five goals last year, mainly due to a horrific start. They were last in five-on-five goals in October with 16 in 12 games, but they ranked 12th from November first on, and they were 10th in their final 50 games after acquiring Quinn Hughes. The Wild didn’t get very good production from Kirill Kaprizov at five-on-five. He averaged 16:35/game but only scored 40 points. Matt Boldy was very productive in his minutes as was Vladimir Tarasenko. The Wild had seven forwards with double-digit goals at five-on-five while the Oilers had five.

One argument I’ve seen is the first unit can play the first 1:20 and then change, because they don’t score as much later in the power play. Let’s look.

The Oilers had 222 power play opportunities, scored 68 goals.

They were 29.6 per cent at five-on-four with 63 goals on 213 chances.

They were 37.5 per cent at five-on-three with three goals on eight chances.

They were 33.3 per cent at four-on-three with two goals on six chances.

Here is a breakdown of when they scored goals.

They scored 16 in the first 30 seconds.

Of those 16, they scored seven in the first period, five in the second and four in the third. Jack Roslovic was on the first unit as he and David Tomasek filled in for the injured Zach Hyman for the first 19 games. In those 19 games the Oilers’ power play was 30 per cent (15 of 50).

They scored 15 goals between 31-60 seconds.

Five came in the first period, four in the second and six in the third period. It is interesting to note Evan Bouchard did not score a power play goal in the first minute last season. I have a theory why, coming up after the time sequence.

They tallied 19 goals between the 61-90 second mark.

Nine came in the first period, seven in the second and three in the third. Bouchard had six goals during this 30-second sequence. I wonder if it is due to catching penalty killers later on their kill, and they are a bit fatigued, which means they don’t get out to the point as often, or if the Oilers’ power play starts using different set ups later in the power play as, like a quarterback in football, they go through their progressions to see where they can exploit the opposition. Either way, the Oilers’ power play is still very effective in the second minute.

Edmonton scored 13 goals between the 91-120+ second mark.

The second unit scored without any of the top three (McDavid, Draisaitl or Bouchard) on the ice three times. Savoie on December 9th (ninth goal in a 9-4 win), Roslovic on December 29th, and Savoie on February 25th.

Here are their other power play goals.

Two came in OT at 4×3, while the others were 5×3. The December 16th game v. Pittsburgh had the Penguins take three penalties at 9:12, 10:20 and 10:38. Edmonton scored twice in 14 seconds on consecutive 5×3 situations.

Overall, the first unit (at 5×4) scored 31 goals in the first minute of the power play and 29 in the second minute. If the goal is to win games and dominate on the powerplay, I would not plan on lowering the TOI of my first unit on a regular basis. If you did it in the third period, I could see it as they only scored twice in the third period in the final 30 seconds of a man advantage. Maybe they were a bit fatigued in the third, but otherwise I’m rolling my first unit, especially the trio of McDavid, Draisaitl and Bouchard for most of the man advantage, and especially the first 90 seconds.

Babcock will reduce McDavid and Draisaitl’s time on ice. Removing them from the penalty kill is the smartest move. McDavid averaged 1:03/game while Draisaitl was at 27 seconds. Removing them from the penalty kill, outside of the rare final few seconds here and there, drops them to 22 and 21 minutes/game (based on last year’s TOI/game). Eliminate one minute per game at five-on-five, and McDavid would average around 21 minutes and Draisaitl 20. That is the easiest and most prudent way to reduce their ice time.

I do wonder if Babcock looks at possibly giving Matt Savoie or Isaac Howard some time in Ryan Nugent-Hopkins’ spot on the first unit. They used to split Hyman and Evander Kane or Corey Perry on the first unit. Hyman could start the man advantage, and if the opponent iced the puck around the one-minute mark, he’d come off. Or sometimes Kane/Perry would start the power play. It will depend on how much they plan to use RNH on the penalty kill.

Jason Dickinson will be their top penalty kill forward this season. He averaged 1:52/game on the penalty kill last year, which was most among forwards, but he only played 17 regular season games. He also averaged the most in the playoffs. He was only on the ice for one power play goal against in his four games. In his seven minutes of penalty kill time in the playoffs, the Oilers allowed one goal. When he was off the ice, they allowed seven goals in 14:49. He’s clearly their best penalty kill forward and he and Kasperi Kapanen were quite good as a duo.

Dickinson/Kapanen, then Savoie/Janmark could be an option, if Janmark is a regular in the lineup. If not, then Josh Samanski, Vasily Podkolzin, RNH, Trent Frederic, Mathieu Joseph or Colton Dach are options. From 2022-2024, Joseph was one of the 40 forwards in the NHL who averaged over 2:00/game on the penalty kill. The past two seasons he’s averaged 1:11/game, but he’s only played in 116 games. I’m not sure he’s a regular in the lineup, but when he plays, he could be a third-unit penalty kill option.

It makes sense to reduce McDavid and Draisaitl’s overall minutes. It won’t be a massive dip, but if they average around 21 and 20 minutes respectively, it should benefit them and the team.

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