Tonight, the Oilers are back at Rogers Place for a matchup with a Chicago Blackhawks team that looks a whole lot different than the version we saw last season. Edmonton won both meetings in 2024–25 — one in overtime and one by a 3–0 shutout — but picking up a series sweep against this Blackhawks team is likely to be a much bigger challenge this time around. The Hawks look like they’re taking a step forward, while the Oilers are still spinning their wheels, which makes this one a sneaky-big test even if it doesn’t look like it on paper.

Chicago’s 5-4-2 start might not sound all that impressive, but for a team that was so bad a year ago, that’s progress worth noting. They’ve got Connor Bedard doing his thing (14 points in 11 games), Frank Nazar taking a leap forward, and their goaltending has been solid enough to keep them in games they probably would’ve lost a year ago. The point is that this isn’t the same team that will gift you a win even if you don’t bring your best. They’re still young, still make mistakes, but they’re starting to figure it out. And if the Oilers sleep their way through one-third of the game again, they’re going to find themselves in trouble.

I don’t think I’m talking out of school when I say that the Oilers should’ve had two points in their pocket on Thursday night against the Rangers. Instead, they decided to call game midway through the third period, coughed up a 3–1 lead, and somehow lost 4–3 in overtime despite starting the bonus period on the power play. The giveaways were brutal, the goaltending couldn’t paper over them, and once again, the Oilers found a way to make life harder than it needed to be. Even though I’m still not worried about what’s going on around here yet, that doesn’t mean we all don’t have plenty of reasons to be frustrated.

Looking at the standings, the Oilers and Blackhawks are almost identical right now. They’re both sitting at 5-4-something, both hovering around .500 in their last 10 games, but the results could not look more different to anyone paying attention. Why? Edmonton’s supposed to be a contender, and Chicago’s supposed to be learning how to be one. Even with Edmonton serving up another dose of October mediocrity, it’s a tough look for a contender when you compare apples to apples. But they are fixable problems.

I don’t care who’s in the lineup for Chicago, what the line combos look like, or how they played through month one, this is a game the Oilers need to win. The best teams beat the rebuilding teams more often than not, and that’s what we’ve got on deck. Leon Draisaitl and Connor McDavid are both sitting at 14 points through 12 games, which is fine, but this team isn’t built for “fine.” We need the big dogs to step up. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins has quietly put up 12 points, Jake Walman’s looked like a legitimate difference-maker since returning, Adam Henrique has been quietly steady, and yet, we’re still looking for more offence more often.

The Blackhawks are coming off a 6–3 loss in Winnipeg, so I’d expect that they’ll be grumpy. The Oilers, after blowing Thursday’s game in spectacular fashion, should be fired up to get the train back on the rails. And if they’re not? Well, then we’ve got a bigger problem than turnovers and bad third periods. This should be a game where Edmonton reminds everyone who they’re supposed to be. Because the numbers don’t lie — these teams are closer than they should be right now, and that’s on the Oilers to figure out a solution.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Mangiapane
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Roslovic
Savoie – Henrique – Frederic
Howard – Philp – Lazar

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Walman
Kulak – Emberson

Skinner

I’m getting to the point where I don’t even care about the line combinations as much as I do about playing simple hockey. The Oilers are getting caught trying to make miracles happen, and I truly believe they’d get better results if they stuck to basics and used them to control the game instead of shooting for Hail Marys. On paper, Edmonton should flatten the Blackhawks more often than not, but if the execution is poor, that difference in skill really doesn’t matter. They need to make North/South plays, get in Spencer Knight’s eyes, and take advantage of what Chicago gives them. Trying to force things when the basics aren’t covered has blown up in our faces multiple times already, and I’d love nothing more than to see tonight’s game won with greasy effort rather than highlight-reel finishes.

Greene – Bedard – Burakovsky
Teravainen – Nazar – Bertuzzi
Donato – Dach – Mikheyev
Slaggert – Foligno – Lafferty

Vlasic – Rinzel
Grzelcyk – Murphy
Kaiser – Levshunov

Knight

If you’re expecting the Blackhawks to roll over and show the Oilers their tummies, it’s just not going to happen. Regardless of where they end up when the season is done, this is a team that’s playing some scrappy hockey right now, and that’s going to be a challenge for the Oilers to manage. As of this writing, Chicago’s top-end players are producing at nearly the same clip as Edmonton’s, which tells me that the best approach is to keep things simple and limit turnovers. With the likes of Connor Bedard, Frank Nazar, and Teuvo Teravainen all playing above, at, or near a point-per-game, keeping the puck out of their hands will be crucial. The two points are there for the taking, but the Oilers will need to be a whole lot sharper if they plan to collect them.

Game Day Prediction: The Oilers start strong and finish strong, locking in a 6-3 win.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: Oilers will be down by a goal in the first five minutes.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: No one will see a multi-goal game come from Trent Frederic, but you will because you read this prediction.