After another mistake-laden outing cost the Oilers a third straight win on Thursday in Columbus, the boys are back in Raleigh to face off against the Carolina Hurricanes. This isn’t one of those games where Edmonton can get away with half efforts and lacklustre execution. This is one of those games where the Oilers will face dire consequences if they don’t bring their best.

Don’t the first 19 games of the season feel like the movie Groundhog Day with Bill Murray? While the days are different, unlike Bill’s character waking up to Sonny and Cher every morning, what we’re watching on the ice feels the same every night. Same mistakes, same missed saves, same results on the board, over and over again. To get out of his endless loop, Murray’s character had to learn to love life again. For the Oilers, it might be learning how to play winning hockey again. Either way, something is off with the approach, and it might be time to initiate Plan B. Heading into Carolina, the Oilers are up against an opponent playing some very strong hockey consistently. Even with the Hurricanes playing in the second half of a back-to-back set — they beat the Canucks 4-3 last night — it’s going to take 60 minutes for Edmonton to beat them.

The Oilers can’t do the thing where it takes 30 minutes to get going against a team this good, and I’d really rather not spend another Saturday watching them get their heads caved in. The Hurricanes have that potential. They have seven players in the lineup tonight with four goals or more compared to four players for the Oilers (would be five if Nugent-Hopkins was playing), and having more than one line that can score is going to be a challenge for our side to defend, especially if they manage the puck as poorly as they have been. There are no easy wins in the NHL, but the Oilers often look like they’re expecting it. And it’s a shame that it takes being down by two goals for them to bring the levels of urgency and execution that we all know they’re capable of.

The good news is that the Oilers are getting Zach Hyman back for the first time since Game 4 of the Western Conference Final against the Stars. And even though it’s going to take him some time to get back up to speed, I have zero doubts in my mind that he is going to give max effort until he gets there, and I’m hoping that work ethic is contagious. Even if the guy doesn’t score, you never question Zachary Martin Hyman’s effort on the ice, and I am incredibly excited that we finally have him back and leading the charge. Gord knows this team needs an emotional jolt, and if there’s anyone on the roster that can be that spark, I’d bet a good chunk of Gregor’s money that we can get it from Hyman. It’s a small dream, but I think it’s a good one.

Of course, playing with some jam is only part of the equation. The most important thing the Oilers can do for themselves is manage the puck more effectively because it’s been a major weakness through the first month of the season. The numbers back it up too. Carolina controls play at five on five better than almost anyone, sitting at 59.31 percent in Corsi For compared to Edmonton’s 50.23, and that kind of gap in shot metrics can turn into a long night for teams that can’t execute cleanly. The Hurricanes generate more shots, allow fewer goals against, and tend to live in the offensive zone, and if the Oilers keep gift-wrapping chances the way they have been, a team this structured will chew them up. Edmonton is also giving up 3.42 goals against per game compared to Carolina’s 2.88, and they’re doing it with loose puck play and a team save percentage that sits at .874. That has to be better, everybody knows it.

If the Oilers want to leave Raleigh with anything but regret, they have to treat this game like the measuring stick it is. Carolina doesn’t beat itself. They don’t give up free goals. They don’t crumble when they get pushed. They just keep coming, and they rely on their structure to carry them through. Meanwhile, Edmonton’s PDO is sitting at 0.955, their five-on-five expected goals are underwater, and their habit of spotting teams early leads is killing them. The Oilers can absolutely win this game if they play the right way for more than a period at a time, and the power play is strong enough to make a difference if they stay disciplined. But if the Oilers try to ease their way in as we’ve seen far too often, then we already know how this story ends. Tonight is a chance to flip that script. It’s on our boys to take it.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

Savoie – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Roslovic
Mangiapane – Henrique – Frederic
Janmark – Philp – Lazar

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Walman
Kulak – Regula

Skinner

The big story for the Oilers is obviously that Zach Hyman is finally making his season debut. It’s been a long wait to get him back in the lineup, and you could feel how badly this team has missed the way he drags everyone into the fight. Hyman isn’t going to fix every problem on his own, but his work ethic, his willingness to get to the hard areas, and his ability to finish plays around the net are exactly what this group has been lacking. The Oilers need someone to set the tone early, and there’s no one better suited for that job than him. If they’re going to turn this season around, getting No. 18 back in the mix is a massive first step.

Svechnikov – Aho – Jarvis
Ehlers – Stankoven – Blake
Carrier – Staal – Martinook
Hall – Kotkaniemi – Robinson

Gostisbehere – Walker
Miller – Nystrom
Nikishin – Reilly

Andersen

Seth Jarvis left the game last night against Vancouver, so it seems likely that he won’t play today, but we haven’t gotten any lineup updates from the Carolina side yet. What we do know is that Freddie Andersen will get the start for Carolina, and he’s been crazy good against the Oilers over the years with an 18-4-0 career record vs. Edmonton. If the boys want to crack him today, they’re going to have to make his life a lot harder than they have been making opposing goalies lately, because Andersen’s numbers against the Oil leave very little room for freebies.

Game Day Prediction: I think the Hurricanes bring out the best in the Oilers, resulting in a 4-2 win for the visitors.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: The Oilers will give up an early odd-man rush that results in the Hurricanes taking a 1-0 lead in the first.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Zach Hyman hat trick. Why not?