The Edmonton Oilers and Calgary Flames are back at it tonight at the Saddledome, and for the first time in a while, the Battle of Alberta actually feels like it’s supposed to. These teams met just up a few days ago on December 23rd at Rogers Place, where the Oilers cruised to a 5-1 win that steadily ramped up in intensity as the game trucked along.

There were shenanigans after whistles, a Leon Draisaitl hat trick, quarters in the swear jar, and plenty of reminders that these teams genuinely do not like each other. That’s what I’m talking about, right there. This rivalry is better when it’s angry, uncomfortable, and a little bit mean, and there’s every reason to believe those vibes carry over tonight in the rematch.

Coming out of the Christmas break, the Oilers are playing some of their best hockey of the season. They’ve gone 7-2-1 over their last 10 games and enter tonight still looking for their first three-game win streak of the season. The offence has been reliable all year, with Edmonton averaging 3.42 goals per game, but lately the execution has been sharper at the other end, and the results are showing it. Calgary, meanwhile, remains stuck in purgatory.

A 6-4 December has kept them hovering near the playoff conversation, but I don’t know that being in the mix is what they want. The Flames continue to struggle to score consistently, their power play sits near the bottom of the league, and once again, they find themselves stuck in the land of mediocrity. Fittingly, they sit just a couple of points clear of last place in the West and five points back of the final wildcard spot, which tells me the Flames don’t even know what they want from their year yet.

But don’t let the Flames fool you. Being painfully average doesn’t mean Calgary can’t make things uncomfortable, as we saw in the season opener when they came roaring back to win. At five on five, their fancy stats are actually pretty solid. They push play, they generate chances, and they can generally keep games tight even if they end up on the losing end. But the Battle of Alberta has a way of boiling down to special teams, and that’s where Edmonton holds a clear advantage.

The Oilers’ power play is operating at a ridiculous 34.3 percent, while Calgary’s continues to fumble along near the bottom at 13.6 percent. If this game turns chippy, and history suggests it will, that gap becomes a major factor. I mean, Draisaitl scored three power play goals four days ago… Point being that discipline is probably going to matter, and parades to the penalty box would likely factor into the result. But if the Flames want to mess around and take penalties, then be my guest. I think it’s a good idea.

In goal, Connor Ingram gets the nod for his third straight start as an Oiler. With Tristan Jarry still sidelined for weeks, the Oilers are clearly using this stretch to figure out exactly what they have in Ingram, and so far, the early returns have been encouraging. He’s 2-0 since being recalled from Bakersfield, has allowed only four goals on 50 shots, and his best performance came against the Flames a few days ago, when he was calm, composed, and quietly excellent in that 5-1 win.

While Ingram will face the same opponent for his third start, the circumstances will be quite a bit different. Road game. Hostile building. A Flames team desperate to respond. While I still expect the Oilers to win, I also expect the Flames to do everything they can to stop it, and Ingram will need to be sharp. Ingram probably won’t need to steal a win here, but if he can be steady early, make the saves we need him to make, and avoid the kind of mistakes that swing momentum, Edmonton should feel good about its chances.

Round three of the Battle of Alberta has all the makings of a tone-setter. First game back, same opponent, and plenty of unfinished business left over from Tuesday night, and two fanbases that will be fired up to watch it all go down. If the Oilers show up with the same confidence, discipline, and edge they had before the break, they’re more than capable of taking control and walking out with two points. The Battle of Alberta is at its best when it’s heated, uncomfortable, and emotional, and tonight checks all the boxes.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

THE NUMBERS

	OILERS	FLAMES
RECORD	19-13-6	15-18-4
WIN/LOSS STREAK	W2	L1
LAST 10 GAMES	7-2-1	6-4-0
GOALS FOR	130	98
GOALS AGAINST	128	113
POWER PLAY%	34.3	13.6
PENALTY KILL%	78.4	80.5
GOALS FOR/GAME	3.42	2.65
GOALS AGAINST/GAME	3.37	3.05
AVG. SHOTS/FOR	28.6	29.6
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST	26.9	28.6
TEAM SAVE%	.890	.901
CORSI FOR%	50.29	51.87
PDO	0.981	0.974
TEAM SHOOTING%	9.14	7.31
EXPECTED GOALS FOR%	49.86	51.03

Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)

Saturday’s meeting marks the third of four installments of the Battle of Alberta this season, with the finale coming on February 4th at the Saddledome. The Oilers have won eight of their last 11 games against the Flames, going 8-2-1 over that stretch.
Ryan Nugent-Hopkins leads all active Oilers in career games played against the Flames (60), while Leon Draisaitl leads all active Oilers in career points (68) against them. RNH has 10 points (3G, 7A) in his last nine Battle of Albertas.
Connor McDavid has recorded at least a point in five straight games versus Calgary (0G, 12A), and has at least a point in 10 of his last 11 games against them (3G, 17A). McDavid’s 29 career goals against the Flames are his most against any team, while his 1.48 points per-game are the sixth most in NHL history by a player versus Calgary.
Leon Draisaitl has recorded at least a point in four straight Battle of Alberta games (7G, 4A), and 34 points (13G, 21A) over his last 17 games against Calgary. In fact, his 50 career assists and 68 career points against the Flames are his most against any team.

LINEUPS…

Oilers

Nugent-Hopkins – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Draisaitl – Roslovic
Mangiapane – Henrique – Savoie
Jones – Frederic – Janmark

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Regula
Stastney – Emberson

Ingram

Big story for the night is that Connor Ingram will get his third consecutive start for Edmonton, as the team is clearly trying to figure out if he and Jarry can be the tandem that puts us over the edge. Through his first two starts as an Oiler, Ingram has given up four goals on 50 shots, which is good for a 2.00 GAA and a .920 save percentage. Dare to dream? I’m dreaming.

Flames

Sharangovich – Kadri – Farabee
Huberdeau – Frost – Coronato
Zary – Backlund – Coleman
Lomberg – Beecher – Klapka

Kuznetsov – MacKenzie Weegar
Bahl – Andersson
Hanley – Brzustewicz

Wolf

I fully expect the Flames to try to set the tone physically after Tuesday’s game started to go off the rails towards the end. The Flames aren’t going to make the playoffs, and I could absolutely see them caring more about taking a pound of flesh than they do about the actual result. Maybe I’m wrong, but I doubt it.

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…

From Flamesnation.ca:

The Flames were decent enough in the first period against Edmonton on Tuesday, but the game got away from them (a) when they allowed a late first period power play goal and then another early in the second period and (b) when MacKenzie Weegar got tossed for the game for protesting an unsportsmanlike conduct penalty. Beating Edmonton at full strength is tough: doing so without one of your top blueliners is a bridge too far.
The Flames need to stay out of the box and keep things at five-on-five if they want a chance in this hockey game.
We’re not anticipating many changes for the Oilers. In a unique quirk of the first game back from Christmas, it’s day-of travel for Edmonton, who are flying down prior to Saturday’s morning skate.
Connor McDavid had five assists on Tuesday. He leads the NHL in points in December with 31. Leon Draisaitl had three goals on Tuesday. He’s second in the NHL in points in December with 24. The next-best point output this month is San Jose’s Macklin Celebrini with 18. McDavid and Draisaitl dominated the Flames on Tuesday. They’ll need to do a better job trying to contain them on Saturday night.

TONIGHT…

GDB Photoshop Leon Draisaitl Edmonton Oilers Battle of Alberta | by Tom Kostiuk

Game Day Prediction: Same two teams, different building, same 5-1 Oilers win.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: We’re getting AT LEAST one fight tonight. Make sure to check out HockeyFights.com for the replays after the game is over.

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Alec Regular scored his first NHL goal against the Flames on April 18th, 2022. He scores his second NHL goal against them tonight.