Looking to see how the Oilers match up with one of the best teams in the Eastern Conference? The wait is over, friends. Tonight, the Edmonton Oilers welcome the Toronto Maple Leafs to Rogers Place for the second and final time this season as they look to wrap up their home stand on a high.
I don’t know what about the Leafs that gives the Oilers so much trouble, but our beloved heroes struggle mightily when these two teams meet. Looking back over the last five seasons, the Leafs have dominated the season series against Edmonton, posting a sparkling 11-3-2 record in the previous 16 meetings. That’s a tough scene for an Oilers club that has been quite competitive over that span of time. It almost doesn’t make sense that Toronto has this much success against our boys, you know?
In the first meeting of the season on November 16th, the Oilers had the lead going into the third period but ended up pissing it away in what turned out to be an overtime loss. The boys gave up two third-period goals en route to a 4-3 loss, and that lack of attention to detail plagued Edmonton early in the season. The good news is that the Oilers have cleaned up many of the issues that led to a run of late-game collapses, but they need to be extra dialled in tonight if they’re going to avoid the same fate.
The Leafs are a very good hockey team, as annoying as that is to admit, and the last thing the Oilers can allow in this rematch is needing half a period to get themselves going. Sure, we may have gotten away with wins over the Sabres and Kraken after duffing the first period or so, but that tactic likely won’t work as well on a team with actual weapons in their lineup. We saw what happened against Detroit when they took their foot off the gas, and this night could be over quickly if the Oilers find themselves in a hole before they can get their legs moving. It just makes a quick start all the more important.
Of course, if the boys can’t get fired up for a game when their home barn will be half full of screaming Leafs fans, then that’s another issue entirely. There is nothing worse than when Toronto comes to town, and their fans get to enjoy a win in our rink, so I’m hopeful that the home side will do everything in their power to take them out of it early. Frankly, anything less than a stream of unhappy Leafs fans leaving Rogers Place early is a miss, in my opinion.
To make that happen, the Oilers don’t need to do anything differently other than play their game and keep it going for 60 minutes. Instead of allowing the Leafs to dictate the pace, the Oilers need to force their will upon the situation while remaining patient and not trying to force plays that aren’t there. The Leafs are very good at moving turnovers back up ice for chances off the rush, meaning that Edmonton will need to be careful when trying to push the puck cross-ice.
Most importantly, the Oilers need to get their best from everyone in the lineup, starting from the crease outward. This matchup requires a full 60 minutes to be successful, and anything less than that could be the open window Toronto needs to keep its dominant streak alive. Gord knows the Oilers are good enough to beat anybody in this league, but we’ll have to wait and see if they can bring all their tools to the table against a team that has kinda owned them over the last five seasons.
Let’s see what the numbers say…

THE NUMBERS

OILERS
LEAFS
RECORD
32-15-4
30-19-3
WIN/LOSS STREAK
L1
L3
LAST 10 GAMES
7-2-1
4-6-0
GOALS FOR
168
155
GOALS AGAINST
138
147
POWER PLAY%
24.4
21.4
PENALTY KILL%
78.0
80.0
AVG. SHOTS/FOR
32.2
28.7
AVG. SHOTS/AGAINST
26.6
28.8
TEAM SAVE%
.911
.925
CORSI FOR%
54.05
49.68
PDO
0.995
1.011
TEAM SHOOTING%
8.44
8.64
EXPECTED GOALS FOR%
55.28
50.21
Numbers courtesy of Natural Stat Trick (Sv%, CF%, PDO, Shooting%, xGF% all at 5×5)
  • Jeff Skinner leads all active Oilers in career games played (44) versus Toronto, while Connor McDavid leads all active Oilers in career points (37) against the Leafs.
  • Leon Draisaitl leads the league in goals (36), even-strength goals (26), game-winning goals (9), and OT goals (4). This season marks the 8th time in his career where he’s had 10 or more power play goals, tying Jari Kurri for the most such seasons in franchise history. Hartsaitl? I say yes.

LINE COMBINATIONS

Oilers ***UPDATE****

Draisaitl – McDavid – Perry
Arvidsson – RNH – Hyman
Podkolzin – Henrique – Brown
Skinner – Janmark – Kapanen
Nurse – Klingberg
Kulak – Bouchard
Stecher – Emberson
Skinner
After losing to Detroit in a shootout on Thursday, Kris Knoblauch gave the line blender another spin as he looks to find the secret sauce for getting the most out of his lineup. Most notable, Knoblauch will be starting Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl on the first line with Corey Perry. That trio has had some success at time, but it will be interesting to see how long he leaves the 39-year-old future Hall of Famer up with the team’s two best players. As always, if there are any adjustments ahead of puck drop, I’ll jump back in the article and make those edits.
UPDATE: Bob Stauffer is reporting Mattias Ekholm isn’t on the ice for warm-ups. He’s been sick for the last few days, and it’s looking like the Oilers are going to have a big hole on the back end. 

Leafs

Knies – Matthews – Marner
Pacioretty – Tavares – Nylander
McMann – Domi – Robertson
Holmberg – Kampf – Lorentz
McCabe – Tanev
Rielly – Ekman-Larsson
Benoit – Timmins
Woll
The Leafs are getting Tavares and Knies back in the lineup for tonight’s matchup, and that’s obviously a healthy offensive boost that the Oilers will need to manage. Meanwhile, William Nylander has recorded seven points (5G, 2A) through his last six games. If there’s a player on that roster who has burned the Oilers time and time again, it has to be Nylander, so I’ll be looking for the boys to keep him quiet as much as possible.

WHAT THEY’RE SAYING…

From Arun Srinivasan at Theleafsnation.com:
During the three-game losing skid, the Maple Leafs have scored three goals, and it’s somewhat fitting that Auston Matthews, Bobby McMann and William Nylander are the only players to get on the board during this late January regression. Matthews looks like the best goal-scorer in the world — this isn’t meant to be an inflammatory shot at Leon Draisaitl, who is running away with the Hart Trophy this year — Nylander probably leads the NHL in breakaways, while McMann has been the lone unsung hero for the Maple Leafs. Mitch Marner can be added to this group, as he plays in all situations and ranks fourth in NHL scoring prior to Friday’s games, but the point remains that the roster imbalance is reaching a heightened state, necessitating a trade for a genuine third-line centre.
Matthew Knies and John Tavares joined the Leafs at practice and took part on the team’s five-forward power play unit — a set up that head coach Craig Berube has become insistent upon. Knies boasts a unique combination of speed, size, power and tenacity, and he understands how to work off the gravity effect that Matthews commands. As for the power play, Berube wants to have two power forwards at the net-front, which makes sense: Berube emphasizes simplicity, Tavares has made a career of living in the slot and using his exceptional hockey intelligence to great effect, while Knies is at his best when he’s aiming to bully defenders, he’s far more than the puck-retrieval specialists that used to occupy the left wing on the Matthews-Marner line.

TONIGHT…

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins GDB Edmonton Oilers Toronto Maple Leafs
Tom Kostiuk from Handmade by Tom
Game Day Prediction: The Oilers get a goal from Leon Draisaitl early in the first period, which sets the tone for the rest of the game. Final Score: 6-2 Oilers.
Obvious Game Day Prediction: Social Media will be flooded with annoying Leafs fans who are living in a delusional world where Connor McDavid is not an Edmonton Oiler. It’s pathetic at this point, but that’s who they are.
Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: John Klingberg revenge goal. He didn’t play in Toronto for very long, but the Hockey Gords want to reward him for the suffering anyway.

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