The Edmonton Oilers are back at it in the late slot on Hockey Night in Canada for the last night of their homestand, and while a 2-1 run through the first three games is fine in the bigger picture, every point you miss gets bigger with only 12 games left to play. If the boys can close out this fourth game with a win over an excellent Tampa Bay Lightning team, you’re feeling pretty good about the week. Let this one slip, and wrapping up at 2-2 doesn’t land quite as nicely.

Standing in the way of a winning record for the week, of course, is a Tampa Bay Lightning team that will do literally everything other than make life easy. Sitting at 42-21-4, the Lightning are one of the more complete teams in the league, and the job gets even harder with Nikita Kucherov going freak mode over the last half of the season. Tampa is scoring 3.63 goals per game, controlling over 53 percent of the expected goals at five-on-five, and locking it all down with a .911 team save percentage at even strength. In other words, they don’t beat themselves very often, and if you want two points, you’re going to have to go take them.

What makes this matchup interesting (read: scary) is how similar the two teams look in one key area, and I absolutely do not mean that as a compliment. Both the Oilers and Lightning have scored 243 goals this season. We already know that our side can goals and that finding offence has never really been a problem. Scoring goals, apparently, is the easy part. The problem, as always, shows up when you keep following the stats page downward a column or two. The Oilers have given up 239 goals against. Tampa Bay has allowed only 186. Is there a bigger plot point for the evening than that? I don’t think so.

As much as the Oilers are banged up right now, the biggest to-do on the list for tonight’s game is to take care of their own end first. Cheating for offence against the Lightning is like taking a long walk off a short cliff, and if Edmonton truly plans to win this hockey game, it’ll come down to executing at a high level on the defensive side of the puck. The Oilers are allowing 3.41 goals per game, with a team save percentage of .886, and with the goaltending rollercoaster working overtime, the only way to settle things down is by caring as much about defending as they do about scoring.

I’m talking cleaner breakouts. Smarter puck management. Less chaos in their own end. Against an opponent this good, the margin for error is next to zero, and that will be a major challenge for an Oilers group that has been Swiss cheese porous all year. And with Leon Draisaitl done for the regular season, Ty Emberson still rehabbing, and Trent Frederic now out indefinitely after leaving Thursday’s game, we’re going to need everyone else pulling the rope in the same direction. Beating Tampa has to be a group effort. Every line. Every pairing. Every single guy.

Because if there was ever a time for this team to rally and live up to their potential, this is it. Nights like these are when you find out what kind of group you’ve got. Sure, it’s nice when everything is rolling smoothly, and the stars are carrying the load, but when a couple of big pieces are missing, we need everyone else to fight above their weight class. Other teams battle injuries all the time and still find ways to win, and now it’s the Oilers turn to show that they can do the same. We don’t necessarily need a perfect game from everyone in blue and orange, but we do need everyone to be as close to perfect as possible.

A little more urgency on loose pucks. A little more care with the puck at both blue lines. A little more commitment to getting back and locking things down in the defensive zone. We need max execution on all of the small details. Anything less than that will be a disaster, especially against a team like Tampa Bay that doesn’t need many chances to make you pay. They’re shooting at over 11 percent as a team at 5v5, they control play at five-on-five, they’re ruthless on the puck, and if Edmonton gives them free or unearned chances, they’re going to wind up in the back of the net.

The real question is whether the Oilers can match Tampa’s ability to take care of their own end, or if this turns into another night where they’re trying to outscore their own mistakes. The homestand has been mostly fine so far, but finishing it the right way against a team this good would say a whole lot more. You’ve got a Stanley Cup contender coming into your building, and it’s an opportunity to show that you can rise to the moment even when things aren’t perfect. If the Oilers can’t do that, however, it doesn’t take much to imagine yet another night at Rogers Place going completely sideways.

Let’s see what the numbers say…

Savoie – McDavid – Hyman
Podkolzin – Nugent-Hopkins – Kapanen
Jones – Dickinson – Roslovic
Samanski – Henrique – Jarventie

Ekholm – Bouchard
Nurse – Murphy
Walman – Stastney

Ingram

Roby Jarventie looks like he’ll be making his Oilers debut after being recalled on an emergency basis after the team placed Leon Draisaitl on the LTIR. The kid has been having a pretty solid season down with the Condors, and I’m looking forward to getting my first look at what he brings to the table. The rest of the group, however, really needs to step up in a very real and massive way.

Hagel – Cirelli -Kucherov
Guentzel – Point – Goncalves
Girgensons – Gourde – Holmberg
Perry -Paul -Bjorkstrand

Moser -Raddysh
Hedman – Cernak
McDonagh – D’Astous

Vasilevskiy

I wrote it a couple of times already, but it bears repeating that the Lightning will absolutely torch you for sloppy play. This team is deep, they play hard, their goalie is one of the best to ever do it, and that combination will be a massive problem for Edmonton if they’re not dialled in. Am I nervous? Yes. Yes, I am.

Game Day Prediction: The Oilers need to rebound after a dreadful loss to the Panthers, and a visit from the Lightning forced them to level up. Final score: 4-2 Oilers with the empty-netter.

Obvious Game Day Prediction: Corey Perry is going to score against us, isn’t he?

Not-So-Obvious Game Day Prediction: Josh Samanski’s first NHL goal!? I say yes!